This is the most open election in the history of Nigerian democracy because the web has removed the impacts of the gatekeepers, disintermediating decades-old misinformation and disinformation. Among Obi, Atiku and Tinubu, this can go to anyone: “Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), is tipped to be the winner of the 2023 election if it were held today, an opinion poll conducted by Nextier, a multi-competency advisory firm, has shown.
“The poll suggests a three-horse presidential race between Mr Obi, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Though with a strong support base in Nigeria’s north-west, particularly his Kano home state, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) is not considered a top contender, according to the survey. The poll results show that Mr Obi leads in rural communities at 40.37 per cent. Mr Abubakar is at a distant second with 26.7 per cent, closely followed by Mr Tinubu at 20.47 per cent. At 30 percent, the LP candidate has the highest net favourability, the report said. Atiku Abubakar is at 17.3 per cent; Bola Tinubu at 4.98 percent and Kwankwaso is at -8.70 percent.”
In my current model, Obi will do well in North Central. Atiku will win North East and North West. Obi will win South South and South East. In the South West, Tinubu will win it but it would be very close with Obi coming just behind. Largely, Atiku will rake in huge numbers in North East and North West (with those typical numbers from Kano and Katsina). What happens in the South West will determine who makes Aso Rock home for the next 4 years. South West is the battle ground because other regions are already defined. This is #open
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Remember: the poll which matters is the election. VOTE
Comment: This is a game of focusing and winning in 4 regions.
In 4 regions so as to meet the constitutional 25% in 2/3 of the states. And the focus to drive turnout/bulk vote.
If you include the NW and avoid the SE in these 4 regions, it becomes easier for you.
With this in mind, APC focused on NW, NC, NE & SW while PDP focused on NW, NC, NE & SS.
The entrance of Labour Party and it’s lead in the NC changes the game.
Labour distortions in the NC & SS and it’s dominance in the SE implies that the winner must go and campaign aggressively in the opponents region.
That’s were we are.
Tinubu is now campaigning in the SE.
Obi must campaign in the NE.
Atiku must campaign in Lagos.
My Response: Nice perspectives. You nailed it because this can go into a run-off if none makes that 25% in 2/3 spread.
Comment 2: Beyond the self-comforting statements from accidental politicians that Obi is a social media candidate, there seems to be a social media extension or a wave that transcends the cyberspace. Many in the SouthWest, especially the transpoters, the agberos, the free spirits on the streets now have Obi on their lips. One man said “check the bag of rice when this one came into office and check what it is now.” In what appeared to be a display of frustration from the brave man, “I think this Obi is the best among them,” he said. The man went further to reference Obi’s accomplishments while a Governor. How did he know so much about Obi that he never met? Social media extension. It is working!
My Response: “Social media extension. It is working!” – that is the disintermediation I wrote about. In the past, he would not have known anything about the other candidates. Not anymore. The web is breaking the walls which the gatekeepers have used in the past to lock people off.
Comment 3: For Obi, lockdown SE/SS, channel most of your energy and resources to NC and SW, then go to states like Taraba, Gombe, Kaduna, Adamawa, and hustle for 25%, and you are home.
Comment 4: From all indications and reality check excluding tribal & religious sentiments; I’m very concerned with this rural poll. Still it collaborated earlier polls in the urban community. APC will take SW by 50%, followed by LP with 45% while the other parties will share the remaining 5%. NE and NW will probably go to PDP hugely by 55/60% with Kwankwaso taking about 20/25%. LP and APC will share the 25/30%. NC will predominantly go to LP hugely on 60%. APC, PDP and the others will share the remaining 40%. SS & SE are 90/95% lockdown for LP. The fragments of 5/10% will be shared by the rest. An X-factor for LP will be the Non-Voting population who have decided to get their PVCs and exercise their franchise. This group accounts for over 40% of the registered votes (30million approximately). If 35% of this group turns up, a massive 10 million votes will swing in for LP.
Kindly note that the Movement sweeping through Nigeria is explainable.
- The oppressed have found a Leader with a record of care and performance and who thankfully has character, competence and capacity to begin the process of building a new Nigeria.
- The people are fed up. The suffering is too much.
- The people are no longer for sale. Even if they take your money as bribe for votes, they believe its their money anyway and look forward to voting for whom they please. Nothing anybody can do about it.
- The men so desperate to rule Nigeria are no longer saleable. Their Expiry Date has long passed. Even if you give them away for free no one will accept them. Taking bad medicine will only make the problem worse.
- Those still praising them are just wanting a last pay day before jumping ship. Many belong to the two expired Parties by day but are strong Labour Party supporters by night.
- The Hausas in the North and Middle belt who have been mentally enslaved for centuries are waking up and understanding they are actually free men and women. Those who provide them with communal meals once a week are not their freinds nor brothers. Slavery comes in many forms, the ones by way of food and bondage of the mind is even worse than the ones with chain where there is even no need to purchase locks and chains.
- Nigerians deserve better. The masses have decided to take their chances with a new Party rather than carry on suffering with those already tried and tested that continue to fail.
- The level of insecurity, poverty, pain, insecurity, insecurity, pain, suffering, pain, suffering, poverty, poverty, poverty, blood, sweat and tears is toooooo much to bear any more.
- Out of control inflation. The ‘elite’ and oligarchs still use private jets like its an Uber cab. But tell us it is only us that must make sacrifices for things to get better, whilst they continue with their life style, unchanged.
- The oligarch must be identified for flushing away.
- The people are fed up with both sides of the same coin, fed up with the conjoined twins who share the same internal organs, digestive system and one anus. We are grateful for the third force……..LABOUR PARTY.
- Should our choice fail, God forbid, we will not complain, it was out choice.
- So the campaign of the Labour Party has metamorphosed into a Movement. By a process akin to osmosis, members of other parties that crave a better Nigeria have moved into the Labour Party. This Movement has not only gone viral but international.
- Those who have been ruling Nigeria never appreciated the importance of Nigeria to the wider world. They have also failed to understand how Peter Obi is altering the medula and DNA of Nigerians.
We know that 2015 Protocol has been activated again. The Kuje Prison Outbreak was the final action plan. We remain undeterred.
In my humble opinion, whatever the outcome of the 2023 elections, Nigeria will not be the same again after it. I am hopeful however that the change will be for good. Amen.
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