Today, I updated our consumer facing startups that Nigeria now has 25 million people who EARN income and can pay for something. My old model was 30 million. But with Covid-19 and the current paralysis, 5 million have gone from the informal sector and some sectors in corporate Nigeria. Jobs lost in hospitality, private education, etc are huge.
These 25 million people would have to support the 175 million others. Our model does show that indeed, Nigeria has a population in excess of 200 million people. We used INEC data, etc to build our model, using historical election participation rate, to indeed model that Nigeria is above 200 million in population. The INEC register is valid because local politicians who could have challenged it, if it were fraudulent, trust it, and that means at the national level, it is a reliable document. That does not mean the votes count, using it, are reliable. But the register itself is a valid document.
So, as we see the exodus and death of companies, I remind everyone that Nigeria has about 30 million people who earn income and can pay for anything. Any model built outside that 30 million will disappoint. I have explained how I arrived at this 30 million number here. With the pandemic affecting that 30 million number, which carries the other 170 million citizens, you will then understand the challenge we have in the near future.
I will be sharing the full details during Tekedia Live on Wednesday. This is exclusive for Tekedia Mini-MBA members.
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