Nigeria’s broadband penetration crossed the 50% threshold for the first time in November 2025, reaching 50.58%—a historic milestone reflecting gradual improvements in digital infrastructure amid economic challenges.
However, this achievement underscores the country’s failure to meet the ambitious 70% target outlined in the National Broadband Plan (NBP) 2020-2025, which expires at the end of December 2025.
The shortfall highlights persistent structural barriers, including infrastructure deficits, regulatory hurdles, and economic pressures, despite concerted efforts to expand connectivity in Africa’s most populous nation. According to the latest industry statistics released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) on December 24, 2025, broadband subscriptions—defined as connections offering minimum speeds of 1.5 Mbps under the NBP—totaled 109.6 million in November, up from October’s figures and representing a 0.69 percentage point monthly gain.
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Year-to-date growth stands at 6.15 percentage points, rising from 44.43% at the end of 2024, when broadband connections were approximately 91.5 million.
Total internet subscriptions, encompassing 3G, 4G, and emerging 5G, reached 144.7 million, a slight increase from 142.6 million in October.
Active voice subscriptions hit 177.4 million, with teledensity at 81.84% based on a population estimate of 216.7 million.
Market leadership remains concentrated among the “Big Four” operators.
MTN and Airtel’s dominance is driven by aggressive 4G/5G rollouts, with MTN launching commercial 5G in 28 cities and Airtel in over 20 states. Globacom’s fiber-optic backbone (Glo 1 submarine cable) supports its fixed broadband push, while 9mobile struggles post-rebranding and ownership changes.
While the 50% crossing—achieved two years after the NBP’s interim 50% goal for 2023—signals progress driven by mobile network expansions, competitive data bundles, and initiatives like the National Broadband Alliance for Nigeria (NBAN) launched in February 2025, stakeholders lament persistent structural barriers.
Gbenga Adebayo, Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), attributed slow rollout to unresolved issues like multiple taxation (up to 40 levies per state), exorbitant right-of-way (RoW) fees (e.g., N145 per meter in some states despite federal waivers), and hidden levies, including education taxes, highway charges, imposed despite official waivers.
Additional challenges include infrastructure vandalism (19,000 fiber cuts reported in 2025, averaging 30-43 daily), unreliable power supply forcing diesel dependency (costing operators N500 billion annually in fuel), spectrum scarcity delaying 5G rollout, weak corporate governance, and SIM-NIN linkage mandates causing a 10-15 million subscriber drop in early 2025.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in telecoms has plummeted (239% drop in 2023, continuing into 2025) due to forex shortages, naira devaluation (from N460/$ in 2023 to N1,600/$ in 2025), and policy instability.
The NBP 2020-2025, developed by ICT experts and approved in March 2020, set bold targets to bridge the digital divide:
- 70% penetration by 2025 (missed; current 50.58%).
- Minimum speeds: 25 Mbps urban, 10 Mbps rural (partial progress; average 15-20 Mbps in cities).
- 50% by 2023 (delayed to 2025).
- At least one smartphone assembly plant by 2023 (unrealized; reliance on imports; cheapest 4G devices >N100,000 vs. target N18,000).
- 70% 4G subscriptions by 2023 (missed; now 51.99%; 5G at 3.6%).
- Investment: $3.5-5 billion needed; actual inflows fell short due to economic headwinds.
Progress has been uneven: From 37.8% in 2020 to 50.58% in 2025, driven by 4G coverage reaching 80% of the population and fiber optic expansion—over 50,000 km laid.
Initiatives like NBAN of February 2025 promote infrastructure sharing to cut costs, while NCC’s approval for 4,000 new towers in 2025 aims to extend coverage to underserved rural areas, where penetration lags at ~30%.
Economically, broadband penetration is pivotal: A 10% increase correlates with 2% GDP growth, according to World Bank estimates, fueling sectors like fintech, e-commerce, and edtech.
Google’s 2025 report projects $1.1 billion higher GDP from penetration gains, enabling innovation, productivity, and digital inclusion—critical for Nigeria’s young population with 18 years median age.
Yet, the shortfall risks exacerbating inequality: Urban areas (e.g., Lagos at 65%) advance, while rural North lags (20-30%), hindering poverty reduction and SDG goals. As the NBP sunsets, focus shifts to a successor—potentially NBP 2026-2030—emphasizing fiber inland with 120,000 km target, 5G acceleration with spectrum auctions in Q1 2026, public-private partnerships, and affordability subsidies.
With Africa’s largest population, Nigeria’s trajectory is expected to influence regional digital ambitions—balancing incremental gains against the urgency for transformative infrastructure investment without succumbing to fiscal constraints.