Nigeria’s latest Treasury Bills (T-Bills) auction has brought to light a deepening policy rift between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Debt Management Office (DMO). The divergence stems from contrasting approaches to managing interest rates and the broader economic strategy, with the CBN pushing for higher yields to attract foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and stabilize the naira, while the DMO warns that elevated yields could severely inflate the nation’s debt servicing costs.
The latest T-Bills auction conducted by the CBN witnessed robust demand across all maturities, particularly the 364-day bill, which dominated investor interest. The government initially aimed to raise N650 billion but ended up allotting N830.44 billion, reflecting significant market appetite.
- 91-Day T-Bill: The CBN offered N70 billion, received N62.57 billion in subscriptions, and allotted N61.52 billion at a stop rate of 17.00%.
- 182-Day T-Bill: Offered at N80 billion, this bill attracted N60.05 billion in subscriptions, with N50.95 billion allotted at a stop rate of 17.75%.
- 364-Day T-Bill: This long-tenured bill was the most sought-after instrument. With N500 billion on offer, it attracted an overwhelming N1.80 trillion in bids. The government allotted N717.97 billion, with the stop rate closing at 17.82%, a decline from the 18.50% recorded in February.
The auction not only overshot the government’s original offer by nearly N200 billion but also highlighted investors’ preference for longer-term securities amid a volatile economic environment.
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Divergent Strategies: Attracting FPIs vs. Managing Debt Costs
A financial expert who preferred anonymity explained that the declining stop rate on the 364-day bill underscores the brewing policy battle between the CBN and the DMO over the appropriate pricing of government debt.
The CBN is advocating for higher rates, arguing that attractive yields are necessary to lure FPIs back into Nigeria’s fixed-income market. The apex bank sees foreign inflows as a crucial mechanism to stabilize the naira, which has remained under pressure despite several policy reforms, including the unification of exchange rates and the removal of fuel subsidies.
However, the DMO, tasked with managing Nigeria’s debt portfolio, is concerned that higher yields will translate to increased borrowing costs. With Nigeria’s public debt already exceeding N90 trillion, the agency is prioritizing debt sustainability and is wary of further exacerbating the federal government’s debt servicing obligations.
The DMO’s stance reflects broader concerns about fiscal space. Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio has consistently exceeded 80%, raising alarm about the federal government’s capacity to meet its financial obligations without sacrificing critical public services.
High Demand Driven by Refund Strategy
One significant factor contributing to the high subscription levels in the recent auction is the DMO’s strategy of issuing refunds instead of refinancing maturing debts. Typically, the government would roll over maturing T-Bills by issuing new ones of the same value.
By opting for refunds, the DMO has created a situation where investors are reinvesting their capital into new auctions, inflating subscription volumes. Analysts note that this approach, while helping manage the debt profile, also underlines the government’s liquidity management strategy amid fiscal constraints.
Compounded by the Rebasing of Nigeria’s CPI
Complicating the economic outlook further is the rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently changed the CPI base year to 2024, altering the methodology for calculating inflation.
Under the new framework, inflation for January 2025 was reported at 24.48%, a sharp decline from the 34.80% recorded in December 2024 under the old methodology. This sudden drop in inflation has introduced a new variable into the interest rate debate.
Some analysts argue that the revised CPI could justify a less aggressive monetary tightening stance from the CBN. However, others caution that the methodological change does not necessarily indicate a real decline in price pressures, particularly with persistent structural challenges such as high energy costs and supply chain disruptions.
CBN’s Monetary Policy Approach
At its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in February 2025, the CBN decided to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 27.50%, citing the need to assess the impact of the rebased CPI before making further policy moves.
Despite the pause, the MPC acknowledged that inflationary pressures remain a concern, highlighting the complex trade-offs facing policymakers. The committee noted that while stabilizing the naira is a priority, sustaining manageable debt servicing costs is equally critical to maintaining fiscal stability.
The CBN’s push for higher yields aligns with its broader strategy to attract FPIs and improve forex liquidity. However, the DMO’s cautionary approach indicates a pragmatic view of Nigeria’s fiscal realities, where every percentage increase in yield translates to billions in additional debt service costs.
The conflicting objectives of these institutions create uncertainty for investors, who must navigate a market where the outlook for T-Bill yields remains unclear. The rebased inflation figures add to this uncertainty, as they could influence future CBN decisions on interest rates and liquidity management.
Balancing Naira Stability and Debt Management
With the CBN maintaining a pause on rate hikes, financial experts believe the future trajectory of T-Bill yields depends on how this institutional tug-of-war plays out. If the CBN prevails, higher yields could attract foreign inflows, potentially stabilizing the naira but at the cost of higher debt service burdens.
Conversely, if the DMO’s stance gains traction, yields may remain capped, easing the debt service load but possibly limiting Nigeria’s appeal to foreign investors. This delicate balancing act will likely define Nigeria’s economic policy environment in the coming months.
The outcome of this policy debate could also impact broader market sentiment and influence decisions across financial markets, including equity, bond, and forex markets. Investors are expected to closely monitor upcoming T-Bill auctions, MPC meetings, and fiscal policy announcements to gauge the direction of Nigeria’s economic strategy and its implications for returns on government securities.