by EBC Financial Group??
Heavy demand for one-year Treasury bills at the first post-cut auction suggests appetite for longer-dated naira assets remains strong, but lower Nigerian yields and higher US rates are narrowing the cushion available to investors.
LAGOS, 29 September – Nigeria’s first Treasury-bill auction following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 350 basis point reset of its Monetary Policy Rate from 26.5% to 23% has shifted the market debate beyond the size of the cut. The question is whether foreign and domestic demand for naira assets can remain resilient as returns on short-dated government securities narrow both domestically and relative to dollar assets. The CBN set the Monetary Policy Rate at 23%, at its 21 to 22 September meeting. It also recalibrated the Standing Facilities Corridor to +50/-300 basis points around the MPR. The CBN framed the move as a reset intended to improve the transmission of monetary policy and bring the benchmark closer to prevailing market rates.
The first auction after the decision offered an early indication of how investors were responding. The 91-day stop rate fell to 15.50% from 16.30% at the previous auction, while the 182-day rate declined to 15.80% from 16.50%. The 364-day bill cleared at 15.89%, down from 16.62%, a fall of 73 basis points. Demand was not evenly distributed. The 91-day bill received N54.93 billion in subscriptions against N100 billion offered, while the 182-day bill attracted N82.23 billion against N100 billion offered. By contrast, investors submitted approximately N4.09 trillion for the 364-day bill against N400 billion offered, accounting for around 97% of total subscriptions across the auction. That concentration matters. Heavy demand for one-year paper may indicate continued appetite for Nigerian fixed income, but it can also reflect investors attempting to lock in current yields before further rate reductions. The auction results do not distinguish foreign demand from domestic participation, while abundant banking system liquidity provides another source of demand.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “The key issue is no longer whether high yields can attract money into Nigeria. They already have. The next test is whether demand remains resilient as the yield advantage narrows, because that would help show whether investors are responding increasingly to stronger external buffers and macroeconomic stability, or whether carry is still doing most of the work.”
Nigeria’s Carry Cushion Is Narrowing from Both Sides
Domestic repricing is only half the equation for international investors. On 16 September, the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023. That raises returns the on-dollar assets even as Nigerian short-term yields decline. The result is a narrower relative cushion for investors willing to take naira currency risk. For a foreign portfolio investor, the nominal return on a Nigerian security is only one part of the calculation. Exchange-rate movements, inflation, liquidity and the ability to exit or reinvest all affect the realised return. A lower Nigerian yield therefore does not automatically lead to capital outflows, but it does leave a smaller cushion if other risks deteriorate.
Precious added, “The gap matters because investors do not assess Nigerian yields in isolation. If returns on lower-risk dollar assets rise while naira yields fall, currency stability and confidence in Nigeria’s external position become more important parts of the decision. The market therefore needs to distinguish demand driven by improving fundamentals from demand that is still primarily about locking in yield.”
From Attracting Capital to Retaining It
This extends a tension EBC highlighted in its July analysis of Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves: stronger reserves improve the country’s external buffer, but some incoming portfolio capital can still leave quickly if the risk-return balance changes. That issue is becoming more relevant now that easing has moved from gradual cuts to a 350-basis-point reset. The first phase of Nigeria’s adjustment involved restoring confidence, improving FX market functioning and offering sufficiently high local returns to attract capital. The next phase is harder to assess. It is about whether confidence can remain durable when investors are paid less to hold naira assets. Recent OMO activity offers another useful signal, but not a definitive answer. At the 24 September OMO auction, the CBN offered N1 trillion across three maturities and received approximately N6.1 trillion in subscriptions, with N2.3 trillion allotted. The 152-day bill cleared at 17.29%, while the 180-day bill cleared at 16.99%. However, this demand also needs context. Banking-system liquidity stood at about N5.98 trillion in the week ended 25 September, and a further N2.43 trillion of OMO maturities is expected to return to the system this week. High liquidity may support demand for fixed-income assets independently of foreign portfolio flows.
Why the Naira Becomes More Important as Yields Fall
As the carry cushion narrows, currency performance matters more. The naira closed Friday at N1,329.51 per dollar in the official market, only slightly weaker than the previous session. That relative stability is important because currency depreciation can quickly offset the return earned on a local-currency asset. A smaller yield advantage therefore places more weight on the durability of Nigeria’s external position. If inflation continues to moderate, FX liquidity remains functional and external buffers stay strong, investors may tolerate lower nominal returns. If those conditions weaken, the reduced carry cushion becomes more significant. This is why the policy reset should not be judged solely by the 350-basis-point headline.
What the Market Should Watch Next
The next test is not one auction. Future Treasury-bill and OMO operations will show whether demand remains concentrated at the long end and whether investors continue accepting lower yields. Portfolio-flow composition will be equally important, because current auction data do not identify how much demand is foreign. Liquidity conditions also deserve close attention. With large OMO maturities returning cash to the banking system, strong subscriptions may partly reflect domestic money seeking short-duration assets rather than a fresh wave of foreign capital. The question is whether Nigeria can gradually move from attracting capital through exceptional yields to retaining confidence through stronger fundamentals.
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