Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, has recently escalated his verbal attacks on the United States and its allies, calling them “hostile forces” and threatening to take “resolute countermeasures”. This aggressive stance may seem paradoxical, given that North Korea has also been engaging in diplomatic dialogue with Russia and China, two of its main economic and political partners.
However, a closer analysis reveals that Kim Jong Un’s hostile rhetoric is not a sign of irrationality or isolationism, but rather a strategic move to leverage his relations with Moscow and Beijing to gain more concessions from Washington and Seoul.
One of the main goals of Kim Jong Un’s foreign policy is to secure the survival of his regime and the legitimacy of his rule. To achieve this, he needs to balance two contradictory objectives: maintaining his nuclear and missile capabilities as a deterrent against external threats and easing the international sanctions that have crippled his economy and caused widespread hardship for his people.
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Kim Jong Un knows that he cannot achieve both objectives simultaneously, so he has adopted a dual-track approach: pursuing dialogue and cooperation with Russia and China on the one hand, and provoking and pressuring the United States and South Korea on the other.
By strengthening his ties with Russia and China, Kim Jong Un hopes to gain their support and protection in the international arena, as well as their economic assistance and investment. Both Moscow and Beijing have expressed their willingness to cooperate with Pyongyang on various issues, such as denuclearization, peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, humanitarian aid, trade and infrastructure.
They have also advocated for a more flexible and gradual approach to sanctions relief, in contrast to the maximalist and rigid stance of the United States. Moreover, they have shown their displeasure with the US-led alliance system in the region, which they perceive as a threat to their own interests and influence.
By escalating his hostile rhetoric against the United States and South Korea, Kim Jong Un hopes to create a sense of urgency and crisis that would compel them to make more concessions and compromises. He also wants to test their resolve and commitment to their alliance, as well as their willingness to engage in dialogue and negotiation.
He knows that his nuclear and missile tests have provoked strong reactions from Washington and Seoul, as well as from Tokyo, which has been increasingly alarmed by the potential threat posed by Pyongyang. He also knows that his verbal attacks have caused anxiety and frustration among the public opinion and the media in these countries, which may pressure their governments to adopt a more conciliatory or appeasing attitude.
Kim Jong Un’s hostile rhetoric reflects not only his confidence in his nuclear and missile capabilities, but also his confidence in his relations with Russia and China. He believes that he can afford to be more aggressive and defiant towards the United States and South Korea, because he has the backing of two powerful allies that can shield him from any adverse consequences.
He also believes that he can use his relations with Russia and China as a bargaining chip to extract more benefits from the United States and South Korea. He hopes that by playing off these two sets of actors against each other, he can achieve his ultimate goal of ensuring the security and prosperity of his regime.