OPEC+ opted for caution on Sunday, keeping its oil output policy unchanged after a short, tightly focused meeting that deliberately avoided the mounting political crises involving several of its members.
The decision points to how the alliance is navigating one of its most complex operating environments in years, with geopolitics increasingly overshadowing traditional supply-and-demand calculations.
The meeting brought together eight core OPEC+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman — a bloc that collectively pumps about half of the world’s oil. Their choice to stand pat comes as crude prices fell more than 18% in 2025, the steepest annual decline since the pandemic-driven collapse of 2020, driven by oversupply concerns, uneven global demand, and a series of geopolitical shocks.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026): big discounts for early bird.
Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass opens registrations.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab: From Technical Design to Deployment (next edition begins Jan 24 2026).
Rather than revisiting output targets, the group reaffirmed a decision taken in November to pause further production increases through January, February, and March. That pause follows a year in which the same eight countries raised output targets by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day, close to 3% of global demand, as OPEC+ sought to regain market share after prolonged supply curbs.
The timing of the meeting was striking as political tensions are flaring on multiple fronts, each carrying potential implications for oil supply, yet none were formally addressed. Relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE — long seen as the strategic anchor of OPEC+ — deteriorated sharply last month following renewed fighting in Yemen, where a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government.
The episode marked the most serious strain between the two allies in decades and revived concerns about internal cohesion within the producer alliance.
Even more dramatic was the shock from Venezuela. On Saturday, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with President Donald Trump saying Washington would take control of the country until a transition to a new administration becomes possible, without spelling out how that would unfold. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, surpassing even Saudi Arabia’s, yet years of sanctions, mismanagement, and underinvestment have reduced its production to a fraction of past levels.
Despite the gravity of these events, OPEC+ delegates said Venezuela was not discussed. The omission was telling. By avoiding politically charged topics, the group signaled a determination to insulate oil policy from geopolitical fallout, at least for now.
“Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official. “And OPEC+ is clearly prioritizing stability over action.”
That approach reflects both experience and constraint. OPEC has historically managed to function through wars, sanctions, and internal disputes by focusing narrowly on market management. But today’s challenges are unusually layered. Russian oil exports are under pressure from U.S. sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. Iran is facing domestic unrest alongside renewed U.S. threats.
Venezuela’s political upheaval adds another layer of uncertainty, with analysts cautioning that even a change in government would not translate into a quick rebound in oil output, given the scale of investment required to revive the sector.
At the same time, the global demand picture offers little incentive for bold moves. Consumption growth remains sluggish in key economies, winter demand in the northern hemisphere is seasonally weak, and inventories are relatively comfortable. Cutting output further could support prices but risks ceding market share to U.S. shale producers and other non-OPEC suppliers. Raising output, on the other hand, could deepen the price slump and strain the finances of several member states.
Internal dynamics also matter. While some producers favor tighter supply to shore up revenues, others — particularly those with capacity to grow — are reluctant to hold back barrels in a competitive global market. The current pause offers a compromise, buying time while keeping the alliance intact.
Analysts see the decision as a holding pattern rather than a long-term signal. With oil prices under pressure and geopolitical risks multiplying, OPEC+ is effectively betting that inaction is safer than miscalculation. The group said the eight members will meet again on February 1, a gathering that could prove more consequential if prices continue to slide or if political disruptions begin to materially affect supply.