As Nigeria approaches the August 2026 governorship election in Osun State, the political landscape is being defined not by developmental debate, but by a disturbing surge in coordinated violence. In the seven months leading up to June 2026, at least six lives have been lost and numerous citizens injured in daylight attacks spanning the state’s three senatorial districts. This is not merely a localised disturbance. It represents a systemic breakdown of order that threatens the foundation of democratic governance in a state historically known for its political consciousness.
A Geography of Terror
The recent violence reveals a strategic effort to destabilise public peace. In Osun Central, the state capital of Osogbo has become a primary flashpoint. High-profile incidents include the murder of Kazeem Oyewole, an APC supporter, and the discovery of Lateef Ajitoba’s body in a gutter at Ila-Orangun. Most recently, a daytime rampage by armed thugs in a 15-vehicle convoy branded with “AMBO” campaign materials terrorised areas from Olaiya to Okefia, leaving at least one person dead. Even party leadership is not immune, as evidenced by the attempted assassination of Asimiyu Ajibola, the Accord Party Chairman for Osogbo Local Government, who survived multiple gunshot wounds in the MDS area.
Osun West has experienced equally brutal targeted killings. The murder of Kolade Eluyera, an Accord agent and son of the party’s Women Leader in Ikire, underscores a pattern of eliminating uncompromising local figures. Simultaneously, motor parks in Ede—including Aisu, Akoda, and Sekona—were attacked by gunmen who opened fire indiscriminately, injuring six people, including a 70-year-old man. In Osun East, the shooting of NURTW leader Adeboye Ademoroti in Ilesa and sporadic gunfire in Ile-Ife have contributed to a climate of “commotion” and fear.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 20 (June 8 – Sept 5, 2026).
Register for Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
The Institutional Void and Partisan Policing
The primary driver of this volatility is an institutional failure in Nigeria’s election security architecture. The Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES), designed to coordinate the Police, DSS, and NSCDC, remains a consultative body without binding command power. This results in intelligence silos where early warning signs of youth mobilization and arms trafficking are detected but never acted upon.
The perceived neutrality of the state’s security apparatus is also under severe strain. National and State Assembly members have formally demanded the redeployment of Commissioner of Police Ibrahim Gotan, accusing him of being a “willing accomplice” to violence. Legislators allege that crimes committed in broad daylight in branded vehicles remain unprosecuted 72 hours later, while the CP has reportedly failed to attend State Security Council meetings consistently. When security forces appear partisan or inactive, it emboldens criminal elements and deepens the “nexus between criminal groups and political actors”.
The Criminal-Political Nexus
Data from 2020 to 2025 highlights a deepening complexity in Osun’s security landscape. The state has recorded 25 casualties from cult clashes and 18 from group violence, patterns that often overlap with electoral mobilisation. Gangs are increasingly contracted to intimidate voters or disrupt rival strongholds, turning the ballot into a battlefield. This environment fuels massive public distrust; a 2025 survey revealed that 73% of Nigerian youth lack confidence in the ability to conduct credible elections. If voters perceive polling stations as zones of danger, the 2026 election will likely be marred by voter apathy and diminished legitimacy for the eventual winner.
A Roadmap for Reform
To avert a total collapse of order by August 2026, the state must move beyond ad hoc coordination towards a systemic, intelligence-led framework. Therefore, this piece offers some reforms leveraging existing research from think-tanks and individuals who have expressed mixed feelings regarding the wave of violence in the state.
The establishment of a Unified Election Security Command Centre (UESCC) is essential. This centre would integrate real-time data-sharing between the police situation room and civil society early-warning platforms. Independent Election Security Oversight Committees (IESOC), comprising the National Human Rights Commission and the judiciary, must be empowered to investigate misconduct and implement transparent sanctions for partisan policing.
Security agencies must adopt a zero-tolerance policy for political thuggery. The suspension of rallies in Oriade Local Government due to “non-cooperative attitudes” and security threats serves as a grim reminder of what happens when dialogue fails. The establishment of an Election Security Training Academy (ESTA) is needed to standardise professional training on crowd control and digital threat management for all duty officers.
If reckless ambition is allowed to dismantle Osun’s legacy of political stability, the retreat of democracy will not stop at its borders. The ballot’s legitimacy is only as strong as the accountability of those mandated to protect it; the time for institutional reform is now, not on the eve of the election.