Barely weeks into his appointment, the new Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.), Bashir Ojulari, is already sketching out what could be the most transformative roadmap in the company’s troubled history. In a town hall meeting with NNPC staff in Abuja, Ojulari pledged to attract $60 billion in investments into Nigeria’s oil and gas sector by 2030, with $30 billion projected within the next three years.

The plan, which is seen as more than a mere vision statement, is expected to mark a departure from the failed promises of his predecessor, Mele Kyari, who repeatedly faced criticism for presiding through sharp operational decline, prolonged financial losses, and widespread opacity in the management of the state-run company.

“We stand at the gateway of a new era, one that demands courage, professionalism, and a relentless drive for excellence,” Ojulari declared. “Now is the time to turn our transformation promise into performance.”

Ojulari’s vow to reform NNPC Ltd. comes against a backdrop of mounting public frustration over years of operational inefficiency and financial bleeding under Kyari. Despite the company’s transition into a limited liability company in 2021, NNPC continued to underperform financially.

While Kyari occasionally declared paper profits, a closer look at the books often revealed creative accounting and heavy reliance on forex revaluations rather than real operational growth. Independent analysts and civil society organizations consistently challenged these declarations, citing discrepancies in subsidy payments, unpaid dividends to the federation account, and bloated overheads that consumed potential earnings.

In fact, under Kyari’s leadership, NNPC was widely viewed as a fiscal black hole—one that gulped billions in oil revenues with very little accountability or reinvestment. The years 2021 through 2023 saw the company struggle to meet its cash call obligations to joint venture partners, while fuel imports drained foreign reserves, often under controversial opaque subsidy arrangements.

The losses were staggering. NNPC’s financial statements prior to its 2021 transformation showed the company posting losses for several years, including a historic N803 billion loss in 2018. Even when reforms were introduced, they did little to address systemic corruption, political interference, and a lack of performance metrics. Kyari, critics argued, had allowed the transformation agenda to drift into a public relations campaign rather than enforce real structural reform.

Ojulari now carries the burden of rewriting that legacy.

Scaling Crude Production: A Recovery Plan or Wishful Thinking?

Ojulari aims to push Nigeria’s crude oil production beyond 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, with an even more ambitious goal of 3 million bpd by 2030. It is a tall order in an environment where oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and declining foreign investments have kept production levels below 1.5 million bpd for much of the past three years.

For many industry watchers, these figures represent a statement of intent rather than a forecast. But Ojulari insists the targets are achievable with the right performance culture, renewed partnerships, and operational discipline.

“The difference this time will be execution,” he said while promising a corporate restructuring that places agility, data, and accountability at the center of operations.

Ojulari also outlined a target to grow domestic refining capacity to 200,000 bpd by 2027, with the goal of hitting 500,000 bpd by 2030. The logic is that without functioning refineries, Nigeria will continue to burn its oil wealth importing refined fuel at a premium, an economic paradox that has endured for decades.

Past administrations, including Kyari’s, made repeated commitments to fix the country’s refineries in Port Harcourt, Kaduna, and Warri. Yet those facilities remained dysfunctional, often guzzling public funds through “turnaround maintenance” contracts with no tangible outcomes.

Ojulari’s plan signals a new approach, one that emphasizes performance contracts, public-private partnerships, and independent value assessments for every project.

“The targets we’ve set are indicators of hope, jobs, industrial growth, and energy security for millions of Nigerians,” Ojulari said.

The new GCEO projects that gas production will rise to 10 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2027 and reach 12 bcf/d by 2030. These figures align with Nigeria’s Decade of Gas initiative but also reflect Ojulari’s understanding of the global energy transition, where gas will remain critical in the shift from fossil fuels to cleaner alternatives.

For years, Nigeria has underutilized its vast gas reserves. While export projects like NLNG flourished, domestic utilization for power, cooking, and industry lagged behind. Ojulari says his strategy will reverse this trend, especially by improving pipeline infrastructure and removing bottlenecks that discourage private sector participation.

Building a Performance-Driven Culture

Ojulari’s transformation pitch goes beyond figures. He is promising to overhaul NNPC’s corporate culture—something critics say was sorely lacking under Kyari. According to him, the company will embrace a robust performance management framework, emphasize independent data assessments, and empower staff to lead with integrity.

“Transparency and accountability will be our anchors,” he said, adding that partnerships going forward must be aligned with value creation and shared prosperity.

Ojulari’s appointment by President Bola Tinubu on April 2, 2025, came after a boardroom purge that swept out Kyari and board chairman Pius Akinyelure, among others. It was a clean break meant to signal a new direction for the state oil giant, which continues to play an outsized role in Nigeria’s economy, accounting for over 80 percent of government export revenues.

Before joining NNPC, Ojulari built a distinguished career at Shell and later moved to the private sector, where he gained a reputation for investment strategy and operational efficiency. Analysts say his success at NNPC will depend not only on his vision but also on his ability to resist political pressures and enforce corporate discipline.

While the new CEO’s vision is plausible, energy experts note that the challenge isn’t just about targets, it’s about turning NNPC Ltd. into the kind of organization where performance, not proximity to power, drives decision-making.

First Holdco Plc closed 2024 on a triumphant note, posting a pre-tax profit of N781.88 billion, more than double the figure recorded the previous year, as strong growth in interest and non-interest income pushed gross earnings to N3.213 trillion.

The group’s audited financial results for the year ended December 31, 2024, show an after-tax profit of N663.49 billion, up 115.12% year-on-year, with the Board recommending a final dividend of 60 kobo per share—bringing the total payout to N25.13 billion, a jump from N14.36 billion in 2023.

Backed by an aggressive loan book expansion and significant investment in securities, First Holdco delivered one of the strongest performances among Nigerian financial institutions, with return on equity and earnings per share also rising sharply.

Otedola Tightens Grip

One of the year’s major developments was billionaire investor Femi Otedola’s move to double down on his stake in the bank. Otedola now controls 4.23 billion shares—up 108.83% from 2.03 billion in 2023—giving him 11.8% of the group’s outstanding 35.9 billion shares.

This deepened ownership positions him as the largest single shareholder, fueling market speculation over his long-term strategy.

Interest Income Drives the Numbers

The lifeblood of First Holdco’s 2024 financial story was interest income, which soared 156% to N2.397 trillion, accounting for about 75% of total gross earnings, up from 60% in 2023.

Much of this growth stemmed from a rise in loans and advances to customers and financial institutions, which contributed over 64% of the interest income. A significant part of the remaining interest came from investments in securities, which jumped 134% year-on-year to N6.54 trillion, now representing a quarter of the group’s total assets.

Loan book growth was also impressive. Loans and advances to customers rose 43.5%, reaching N8.768 trillion, accounting for 45% of the group’s balance sheet.

But this growth came at a cost: interest expenses nearly doubled to N996.12 billion, driven mainly by the cost of deposits. Customer and institutional deposits surged 61.03% to N17.171 trillion, making up over 75% of the group’s total assets.

Despite impairment charges of N426.29 billion, of which N341 billion was provisioned for customer loans, net interest income after impairments still rose a staggering 203.4% to N975.02 billion.

Trading and Commissions Fuel Growth

Non-interest income held its weight in the performance story. Net fees and commissions rose 31% to N244.89 billion, with electronic banking, credit-related, and transfer fees each contributing over N46 billion.

On the trading side, First Holdco raked in N549.99 billion in gains from financial instruments measured at fair value (FVTPL), contributing 17% to gross earnings.

Windfall Levy Hits Tax Line Amid Recapitalization Push

Not all was rosy, though. Tax expenses nearly tripled to N132.98 billion, largely due to a N33.49 billion windfall levy spanning 2023 to 2025. The impact of this special tax, while heavy, did little to dent the group’s profit trajectory.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s recapitalization directive is still in play, but First Holdco has already begun shoring up its buffers. It launched a N149 billion rights issue in November 2024, part of efforts to meet the February 2026 deadline for new minimum capital thresholds.

Despite strong earnings and retained profits, now at N1.116 trillion, up 89.54%—the group’s share capital and premium remain unchanged at N251.34 billion, underscoring the urgency of its ongoing capital raise campaign.

On the Nigerian Exchange, the company’s stock closed at N24.60 as of April 17, 2025—a 12.3% decline year-to-date, despite the stellar numbers. Market analysts point to profit-taking and macroeconomic headwinds as reasons for the muted investor response.

Still, with total assets up 56.6% to N26.524 trillion, shareholders’ equity up 60% to N2.795 trillion, and cash and bank balances crossing N4.4 trillion, the group’s fundamentals remain solid.

What lies ahead? Analysts believe the group’s ability to sustain asset quality amid rapid loan growth and high-interest costs will be crucial in sustaining its revenue momentum. Meanwhile, all eyes will focus on how quickly it wraps up its capital raise—and whether Otedola plans another surprise move in 2025.

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has raised fresh concerns over the trajectory of artificial intelligence (AI), warning that machines are evolving at a pace that could soon outstrip human oversight.

Speaking at an event hosted by the Special Competitive Studies Project, a think tank he founded, Schmidt described a world where AI systems are no longer reliant on human intervention to improve or operate. His warning comes as fears over AI safety and governance continue to escalate across the globe.

“The computers are now doing self-improvement. They’re learning how to plan, and they don’t have to listen to us anymore,” Schmidt said.

He referred to the process as recursive self-improvement — a point at which AI systems begin generating hypotheses, testing them through robotic labs, and refining their capabilities autonomously.

Schmidt’s remarks form part of a broader chorus of concern among industry leaders and technologists who fear that, in the absence of meaningful regulation, AI could spiral beyond human control. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who also co-founded OpenAI before stepping away, has been one of the most vocal figures warning about the existential risks posed by artificial general intelligence. Musk has repeatedly likened the rapid pace of AI development to “summoning the demon,” and in recent months, reiterated that AI represents a fundamental threat to humanity’s survival if not properly governed.

Schmidt, who served as Google’s CEO from 2001 to 2011 and later as executive chairman until 2017, pointed out that tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Deepseek — all of which are already being used for advanced tasks such as coding and scientific research, were never explicitly trained for those purposes, yet are delivering results that rival and even surpass human capabilities in some fields.

“We believed AI was under-hyped, not over-hyped,” he said, highlighting that within a year, these systems may replace the vast majority of programmers and outperform leading mathematicians.

What makes these developments even more troubling, Schmidt suggested, is the weakening of safety measures in some of the latest iterations of AI tools. OpenAI’s forthcoming GPT-4 successor, known internally as o3, is rumored to come with reduced guardrails compared to earlier models. Experts have flagged this shift as potentially dangerous, as it increases the risk of AI producing misleading, toxic, or manipulative outputs without adequate human control.

While the capabilities of AI are expanding at breakneck speed, the same cannot be said for regulation. Despite repeated calls from figures like Schmidt, Musk, and other tech leaders, governments around the world have yet to develop a coherent framework to manage the risks. The United States, in particular, has no comprehensive national AI policy. Congress has held hearings, and the White House has issued executive orders, but meaningful legislation remains absent — leaving critical questions about accountability, transparency, and safety unanswered.

This vacuum in regulatory preparedness is perhaps the most pressing concern. Schmidt also warned that the U.S. risks being left behind by geopolitical rivals like China, which are investing heavily in AI while simultaneously advancing strategic control over their energy and industrial policies.

Testifying before the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Schmidt said the energy demand associated with AI is another overlooked crisis-in-waiting.

“People were planning 10-gigawatt data centers,” he said. “The average nuclear plant in the US is just one gigawatt.”

The implication: AI’s hunger for computational power could overwhelm the current energy grid, unless immediate reforms are made to boost capacity, including investment in both renewable and non-renewable sources.

He further argued that open-source AI models pose national security threats if not carefully monitored, stressing that the absence of regulatory oversight opens the door for hostile use, data manipulation, and misinformation at scale.

And yet, even in his warning, Schmidt noted that AI still fundamentally depends on high-quality data and human decision-making.

“The scientists are in charge, and AI is helping them — that is the right order,” he said.

But how long that order holds remains a question. There is concern that if AI systems continue to evolve in the shadows of regulatory inaction, the very scientists in charge today may be watching from the sidelines tomorrow.

Against this backdrop, many believe that the promise and peril of AI are growing in tandem. And with no clear-cut plan for regulation, the world may be racing toward a future it still doesn’t fully understand — or control.