JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the sweeping tariff measures introduced by President Donald Trump will likely trigger inflation and further slow down an already weakening U.S. economy.

In his annual shareholder letter released Monday, Dimon struck a cautionary tone, outlining several economic risks he believes are converging at a time of increasing global instability.

The remarks mark the first time a major Wall Street CEO is publicly weighing in on Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, which sent global financial markets into a tailspin, triggering the worst week for U.S. equities since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Whatever you think of the legitimate reasons for the newly announced tariffs – and, of course, there are some – or the long-term effect, good or bad, there are likely to be important short-term effects,” Dimon wrote. “We are likely to see inflationary outcomes, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices, as input costs rise and demand increases on domestic products.”

He cautioned that while it remains to be seen whether the tariff package will cause a full-blown recession, it will certainly act as a drag on growth.

Dimon’s tone marks a notable shift from his position in January when he dismissed tariff concerns, saying they were justified for national security. At the time, discussions were centered around far milder tariff levels. Trump’s latest round of tariffs, which cover hundreds of billions of dollars in goods, appears to have caught markets and business leaders off guard.

“The quicker this issue is resolved, the better,” Dimon said, adding that prolonged uncertainty would make the economic impact harder to reverse. “In the short run, I see this as one large additional straw on the camel’s back.”

The 69-year-old banker said the U.S. economy had already begun to weaken in recent weeks, even before the tariff bombshell. Fueled by nearly $11 trillion in government borrowing and pandemic-era spending, the American economy had managed to stay buoyant, but the momentum is now showing cracks.

Inflation, he said, is proving more stubborn than many have assumed, and this could keep interest rates elevated even as growth falters, a scenario few investors appear to be pricing in.

“Markets still seem to be pricing assets with the assumption that we will continue to have a fairly soft landing,” Dimon warned. “I am not so sure.”

Quiet Critique of Trump’s Approach

Though Dimon’s 59-page letter never mentions Trump by name, the subtext was unmistakable. He appeared to support the idea of addressing trade imbalances and the need for stronger immigration policy, two pillars of Trump’s economic platform but challenged the president’s method of reshaping the global order.

Instead of retreating into protectionism, Dimon made a case for deepening America’s role in the global system it helped build after World War II, a system he says has underpinned decades of global peace and prosperity.

“If given the opportunity, that is exactly what our adversaries want to happen: Tear asunder the extensive military and economic alliances that America and its allies have forged,” he said. “In the multipolar world that follows, it will be every nation for itself – giving our adversaries the opportunity to set the rules.”

He also warned that global capital flows, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and corporate profits could all be impacted as countries respond to Washington’s increasingly unilateral approach to trade.

Stark Prescription for American Renewal

Dimon’s shareholder letter often serves as a state-of-the-nation essay as much as a bank report, and this year’s version is no different. He painted a picture of a country at a “critical crossroads,” simultaneously juggling high asset prices, sticky inflation, large fiscal deficits, geopolitical tension, and market volatility.

Still, he struck a note of patriotism, arguing that the challenges facing the United States can be met with pragmatic reform, not isolation. He emphasized restoring civic pride, maintaining a strong military “at whatever cost,” and tackling issues like immigration and trade with “common sense.”

“Economics is the longtime glue, and America First is fine,” Dimon said, “as long as it doesn’t end up being America alone.”

A Nervous Market Watches Closely

Under Dimon’s leadership, JPMorgan has become the country’s largest bank by assets and market value, and 2024 marked its seventh straight year of record revenue. But the tone of this year’s letter stands in contrast to previous years, with the CEO sounding less certain about the durability of the American growth story.

His concerns land at a time when investors, already rattled by rising borrowing costs and signs of weakness in the labor market, are bracing for what comes next. Dimon, known for his prescient warnings, including before the 2008 crisis, is once again telling markets not to underestimate the risks.

Whether the White House intends to make any revisions to its tariff plan remains unclear. But with Dimon adding his voice to the growing list of business leaders expressing concern, pressure is mounting on the administration to make amends before more damage is done.

In a blunt internal memo, Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke has told employees that before they request additional headcount or resources, they must first demonstrate why their goals cannot be achieved using artificial intelligence.

The message, shared internally late last month and later posted by Lütke on X, marks a decisive shift in how the e-commerce giant expects its workforce to operate in the age of AI.

“What would this area look like if autonomous AI agents were already part of the team?” Lütke asked in the memo, describing the question as a springboard for “really fun discussions and projects.” However, the underlying message was unmistakably serious: using AI is no longer optional; it’s a baseline requirement at Shopify.

The broader message, first reported by CNBC, underscores what Lütke called “reflexive AI usage,” a cultural shift he says must be embedded across all teams and roles.

“Using AI well is a skill that needs to be carefully learned by… using it a lot,” Lütke wrote. “It is now a fundamental expectation of everyone at Shopify.”

Lütke, who has led Shopify since its founding in 2006, called the rapid adoption of AI “the most rapid shift to how work is done that I’ve seen in my career.” His comments reflect a growing trend among tech leaders who are moving to reshape their companies around artificial intelligence, not just as a tool, but as a core competency.

To enforce this new standard, Lütke revealed that AI usage will now be evaluated as part of employee performance and peer reviews. The implication is clear that those who don’t learn how to integrate AI into their work may find themselves left behind.

“What we need to succeed,” Lütke wrote, “is our collective sum total skill and ambition at applying our craft, multiplied by AI, for the benefit of our merchants.”

From Efficiency to Expectation

The shift comes as companies across the tech world are tightening budgets, streamlining teams, and using automation to cut costs. However, Shopify’s move stands out for the way it institutionalizes AI adoption, not as a support tool, but as a default mode of operation. The company is effectively putting AI at the center of internal decision-making by requiring teams to justify resource requests in the context of AI capabilities.

This approach may be driven as much by necessity as it is by vision. Shopify has undergone several rounds of layoffs since 2022, cutting thousands of jobs and offloading ancillary businesses like logistics. Embracing AI allows the company to push for higher productivity without increasing headcount, a calculation that appears to now underpin its leadership philosophy.

Cultural Shift or Pressure Tactic?

While Lütke frames the memo as an invitation to innovate and experiment, the directive also places pressure on employees to continually adapt or risk falling short of expectations. Requiring every project to first pass an “AI or not” test before securing new hires could discourage certain types of work or create internal tension about what qualifies as “AI-enhanced.”

Still, the Shopify boss seems to believe this is a necessary evolution. “Autonomous AI agents are here,” Lütke wrote. “They’re good. Let’s get good at using them.”

As the AI boom reshapes industries, Shopify’s bet is that teams willing to treat AI as a colleague, not just a tool—will deliver better results, faster, and with fewer people. Time will tell whether more companies are going to embrace this approach – automating the future of work.

A week after President Donald Trump launched a sweeping wave of tariffs targeting nearly every major trade partner, global markets remain shaken. Tech stocks are in a downward spiral. U.S. indices are posting their worst losses since 2020. And companies are scrambling to adjust strategies amid a deepening trade war. But while most analysts and economists are raising red flags over the potential for recession, one Wall Street firm, Jefferies, has dared to suggest there’s an upside to the chaos.

In a Sunday research note, analysts at Jefferies described the volatile economic landscape as a “free hall pass” for companies to reset expectations, lower performance targets, and recalibrate for a tougher business climate. The analysts argued that the uncertainty brought on by tariffs gives corporate leaders a unique opportunity to revise guidance downward without the usual backlash from investors.

“Lower estimates that are more achievable tend to improve investor sentiment and, ultimately, lead to better share performance,” the note read. The report was led by Brent Thill and focused on 29 tech firms, including heavyweights like Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.

While their argument reflects a contrarian view on the fallout from Trump’s latest trade salvo, Jefferies stands virtually alone in seeing any potential benefit from the tariffs. The prevailing mood among analysts, economists, and corporate leaders is one of concern—and in many cases, alarm.

Slashing Tech Targets

Among the companies hardest hit by Jefferies’ revised expectations is Meta. In the space of ten days, the firm has cut Meta’s price target twice, most recently by 17%, bringing it down from $725 to $600. The analysts also slashed Meta’s 2025 earnings-per-share (EPS) forecast by 13%, citing macroeconomic headwinds and advertising pullbacks linked to Chinese clients.

Meta’s stock has fallen by 10% over the last five trading days and now sits at $504. Microsoft’s target was cut by 5%, from $500 to $475, with shares down 3.5% over the same period. Google and Amazon fared slightly better in the analysis, with EPS estimates for 2025 reduced by 2% and 1%, respectively—though Jefferies held their price targets steady.

Analysts noted that Meta and Amazon, in particular, are vulnerable due to their exposure to Chinese advertisers, many of whom are now pausing their U.S.-oriented campaigns as a direct response to Trump’s aggressive tariff policy. “If you can’t sell, why advertise?” one marketing expert told Business Insider, underlining the abrupt shift in sentiment among Chinese brands that traditionally target American consumers.

Trade War Panic Spreads

The broader picture is far from optimistic. Last week, President Trump unveiled a barrage of new tariffs, including a 34% duty on imports from China, 46% on Vietnam, 26% on India, and 32% on Indonesia. On Friday, China fired back, imposing a retaliatory 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, effective April 10.

The tit-for-tat measures have rattled investors. The S&P 500 dropped 6%, the Dow Jones fell 5.5%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8%—all recording their steepest single-day losses since the COVID-19 lockdown crash of 2020. Dow futures dipped another 2.5% on Sunday night, indicating that the carnage may extend into this week.

Asian markets opened deep in the red on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei index fell 6.5%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 4.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped nearly 10%, the worst showing in years.

Amid the panic, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, like many others, said the tariff will only yield economic pain.

“Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much,” he wrote on X. “The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now closer to $30 trillion.”

Alone in Seeing Upside

While the scale of the market reaction has prompted widespread concern, Jefferies’ note stands out for suggesting that companies might benefit from the downturn, at least in how they manage expectations. This view, however, has not found support from most analysts or economic experts, who warn that the mounting tariffs could trigger a global recession.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon echoed the warning in his annual shareholder letter. Although he acknowledged the need for a firmer stance on trade, Dimon cautioned that the current tariff barrage could have damaging ripple effects across the economy.

“These actions are inflationary and disruptive,” he wrote. “Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth.” Dimon warned that the markets were pricing in a soft landing, perhaps too optimistically. “I am not so sure,” he added.

His note was a pointed, if carefully worded, rebuke of Trump’s latest trade actions. While Dimon agreed that the U.S. must address unfair trade practices, particularly with China, he warned that the current approach could backfire by undermining the post-World War II trade system that the U.S. helped create.

“America First is fine,” Dimon said, “so long as it doesn’t become America Alone.”

Strategic Reset or Recession Risk?

Despite Jefferies’ argument that lowered expectations might boost investor confidence in the long run, the mood across most of corporate America is grim. Companies from Target to Best Buy and even Ferrari have announced plans to raise prices in response to new import costs. Manufacturers warn of supply chain disruptions, and tech firms are reassessing hiring and expansion plans.

Jefferies’ optimism is framed around the idea that the second quarter of 2025, beginning this April—will mark the peak of tariff-induced uncertainty. By the second half of the year, the firm expects conditions to stabilize, allowing for a potential rebound in the fourth quarter. That recovery, however, hinges on two critical assumptions: that the trade war does not escalate further, and that companies succeed in lowering investor expectations without spooking markets further.

But if markets continue to tank and retaliatory tariffs escalate, as they did last week, those assumptions may not hold.

How do you measure the pulse of Nigeria’s economy if you are an entrepreneur and run a B2C business? Try these indicators:

– Count the number of active aircrafts parked in Nigeria’s leading local airports at 9pm over a week; ask someone working in FAAN to help. Compare that number with your previous benchmark. The delta will tell you where things stand.

– Climb the tallest buildings in Marina Lagos and count occasionally over a week, how many ships are coming and leaving, and how loaded they are. You will likely notice that the number of ships coming to Nigeria have dropped, and most troubling, ships continue to depart Nigeria largely empty. I have friends in those buildings; I provided them with binoculars to assist.

If supply chain is the engine of commerce, the implication is that if our supply chain is seeing a significant drop, it does mean that our economic activities have reduced. Again, this is not a scientific study, but this is one way I have been using for years to provide a quasi-independent evaluation of where things are.

Then this one: visit Shoprite on a typical Saturday, and compare how it used to be. This will help you understand the positioning of your potential middle class customers. My model remains that Nigeria has about 30 million salary earners (formal and informal). That means when it comes to PAYING for things, you have 30 million to target even though those 30M support about 230 million people. This number has not changed since I developed it

Now, what is the earning power of those 30m people? It used to be between $4 — $8 per day on average; now, it is about $2 – $4 per day. For Nigerian B2C startups, this is the income band that holds the highest concentration of discretionary spending power in the country and you must model your pricing around that. As I have taught, this pricing must align with PMVQ (product minimum viable quality) to unlock value. No excuses; you must unlock value because Nigeria’s 30m “earning” customers are still larger than the population of most African countries.

*video: picked on WhatsApp (Sat, April 5 2025)