The number of citizens benefiting from the Federal Government’s cash transfer program under the National Social Safety Net Program-Scale Up (NASSP-SU) has surged to 32.21 million as of January 2025, according to the latest World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report released on January 29, 2025.

Despite concerns over the efficacy, transparency, and sustainability of the program, the cash transfer initiative has continued to expand—covering over 5 million households across the country. The report highlights that 28.55 million of the total beneficiaries are women, a sign that the initiative is targeting vulnerable groups, particularly in rural communities.

Implemented by the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation, the program is designed to provide financial relief to low-income households while strengthening Nigeria’s social safety net system. However, even as the government touts its achievements, questions remain about whether the funds are truly reaching the intended beneficiaries or if they are being mismanaged—a concern that has plagued past social intervention initiatives.

Is Transparency Improving?

The report states that all cash transfers since March 2024 have been strictly processed through verified National Identification Numbers (NINs) or Bank Verification Numbers (BVNs), in line with a December 2023 directive from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). This decision was aimed at curbing fraud and enhancing transparency, but it also raises concerns about exclusion, particularly for Nigerians who still lack proper identification.

To address this, the National Social Safety Net Coordinating Office (NASSCO) has been licensed as a front-end enrollment partner for NIN registrations. In collaboration with the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), the agency is working to validate existing social register entries and ensure that all new recipients have a verified identity before receiving payments.

The report also noted that 1.4 million households, out of the 5 million currently covered, have received a second and third tranche of financial support. Meanwhile, the number of households receiving cash under the Economic Shock Responsive Cash Transfer (ESR-CT) component has increased to 5.39 million, while beneficiaries under the Extended Regular Cash Transfer (ER-CT) program have reached 1.51 million.

With the government aiming to reach 56 million Nigerians by December 2025, the World Bank notes that the scale-up efforts appear promising but warns that political and economic risks could threaten the program’s sustainability.

Challenges and Risks

However, the NASSP-SU program has been given a “Moderately Satisfactory” rating in the World Bank’s latest report. The assessment highlights several key challenges, including:

• Delays in implementation due to frequent leadership changes and policy adjustments.
• Political and macroeconomic instability could affect continued funding and program sustainability.
• The lack of beneficiary satisfaction surveys makes it difficult to measure the true impact of the initiative.

The implementation delays are particularly concerning given that the government has changed leadership in the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs twice within the past year. Following the appointment of new ministers in October 2024, the program’s future depends on whether the new administration can maintain funding and oversight.

Moreover, while the use of digital payments linked to NINs and BVNs is a step towards reducing corruption, many argue that the Nigerian government has a poor track record of financial transparency. Previous social intervention schemes, including TraderMoni and the COVID-19 relief materials, faced allegations of fraud and fund mismanagement, raising fears that a significant portion of the cash transfers may be diverted before reaching the intended beneficiaries.

A Political Tool or a Genuine Poverty Alleviation Strategy?

With Nigeria’s economic conditions worsening, the cash transfer program has become a politically sensitive issue. Inflation remains above 34%, the cost of food has soared, and millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with reduced purchasing power.

The government has framed the program as a lifeline for the poor, but opposition figures and economic analysts have criticized its effectiveness, questioning whether handing out cash addresses the root causes of poverty. There are concerns that the program is being used as a short-term political tool rather than a sustainable economic strategy.

Moreover, some analysts argue that giving money directly to beneficiaries does not necessarily translate into long-term economic empowerment. Without complementary skills development, job creation, and economic reforms, the cash transfer initiative could become another expensive but ineffective government welfare program.

Impact on Financial Inclusion and Fintech Innovation

One undeniable impact of the NASSP-SU expansion is its role in driving digital payments adoption in Nigeria. With 100% of transfers now processed electronically, the initiative is pushing more Nigerians into the formal financial ecosystem.

For fintech companies and mobile money operators, this presents a major opportunity. Millions of low-income Nigerians who previously had no formal bank accounts are now being introduced to digital financial services, potentially expanding access to savings, credit, and insurance products.

However, there is a risk that many of these newly onboarded beneficiaries will withdraw their cash immediately after receiving it, rather than engaging in long-term financial inclusion.

With the World Bank projecting that cash transfer beneficiaries could rise to 56 million by December 2025, the next year will be crucial in determining whether the NASSP-SU can deliver tangible benefits or whether it will become another poorly managed government program.

SoftBank is reportedly in discussions to lead a massive funding round of up to $40 billion in OpenAI, the artificial intelligence powerhouse behind ChatGPT, at a post-money valuation of $300 billion.

If finalized, this deal would mark the largest-ever single funding round for a private company, solidifying OpenAI’s dominance in the AI industry.

According to sources familiar with the matter, cited by Reuters, the proposed investment comes with a pre-money valuation of $260 billion, which represents a staggering leap from the $150 billion valuation OpenAI commanded just a few months ago. These figures indicate not only OpenAI’s meteoric rise but also the growing appetite among major investors to stake their claim in the AI revolution.

Neither OpenAI nor SoftBank has commented on the discussions, but earlier reports from The Wall Street Journal suggested that OpenAI was already in talks with SoftBank for a round that could push its valuation even higher, potentially reaching $340 billion.

SoftBank, which has long sought to deepen its role in artificial intelligence, could contribute between $15 billion to $25 billion directly into OpenAI. A portion of these funds may be earmarked for OpenAI’s commitments to Stargate, a joint venture between Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank, designed to bolster U.S. leadership in AI against China and other geopolitical competitors.

Stargate is planning to invest a staggering $500 billion in AI infrastructure and development, making it one of the most ambitious technology investment projects ever conceived. If the deal materializes, SoftBank’s latest funding move would be in addition to the $15 billion it has already pledged to Stargate.

However, sources caution that discussions are still at an early stage, and terms could change before an agreement is reached.

Is DeepSeek’s Breakthrough A Challenge to OpenAI’s Leadership?

However, despite the ambitious vision behind the Stargate initiative, recent breakthroughs in AI—particularly the emergence of DeepSeek—have raised serious questions about whether the deal is already becoming obsolete before it even materializes.

The AI world was shaken recently by the announcement of DeepSeek, an open-weight large language model (LLM) developed by a team of Chinese researchers. Unlike OpenAI’s closed-source approach, DeepSeek offers a high-performance, transparent alternative that challenges the need for astronomically expensive AI development projects like Stargate.

DeepSeek has demonstrated capabilities that, in some areas, rival OpenAI’s best models—at a fraction of the cost. The fact that a new entrant could develop a model approaching OpenAI’s level with far fewer resources has led some industry observers and investors to question whether SoftBank’s multi-billion-dollar investment in Stargate and OpenAI is justifiable.

It is widely believed that SoftBank’s Stargate push is exorbitant, with many pointing out that the AI industry is evolving faster than expected, making long-term bets on costly infrastructure projects risky. Given the open-source breakthroughs like DeepSeek and Meta’s Llama series, many in the AI community believe that the next generation of AI dominance may not be determined solely by compute power, but by model efficiency, strategic partnerships, and algorithmic breakthroughs.

For years, the dominant belief in AI investment has been that whoever controls the most computing power and data will win. This thinking has fueled massive projects like OpenAI’s partnership with Microsoft, Google’s DeepMind, and now the Stargate initiative. However, DeepSeek’s emergence suggests that the AI race may not be as capital-intensive as previously thought.

If an open-weight model can deliver comparable performance without a multi-billion-dollar investment, does the Stargate project still make sense? That’s the question many in Silicon Valley and the financial world are now asking.

A Defining Moment for OpenAI and AI Investments

This potential funding round underscores a broader trend of skyrocketing valuations for AI companies, as major players rush to secure stakes in cutting-edge technologies that could define the next industrial revolution. OpenAI, backed by Microsoft, has emerged as a leader in generative AI, driving widespread adoption of ChatGPT and other AI-driven products that have reshaped industries ranging from software development to creative content production.

For SoftBank, the deal aligns with its long-term AI investment strategy. The Japanese conglomerate, led by Masayoshi Son, has been actively positioning itself as a dominant player in AI and robotics, following previous bets on companies such as Arm Holdings and Nvidia. With this potential investment, SoftBank would further cement its influence in the global AI market.

If SoftBank successfully leads the funding round, OpenAI could gain a war chest of capital to accelerate its AI research, scale its cloud computing infrastructure, and expand into new markets. The funding could also help OpenAI navigate increasing regulatory scrutiny, as governments worldwide grapple with the implications of AI on privacy, labor markets, and security.

Meanwhile, the AI race continues to heat up, with Google’s DeepMind, Anthropic, and Meta also vying for dominance in the sector. With OpenAI’s potential valuation climbing into the $300 billion range, the company is now approaching the ranks of the world’s most valuable private firms, on par with established tech giants.