To thrive in markets, you must accumulate capabilities. But greatness comes when you master how to compound those capabilities. Do not allow your environments to constantly define your paths, like lifeless feathers do on waters. For those feathers, the water will toss them and move them wherever the water flows. Be like the dragonfly, which despite going against the mild water currents, reaches its destination.

The world is going through a structural redesign across many vistas, economic, technological, etc. The innovation society era which began towards the end of the 18th century, ending the invention society era, is now making way for the accelerated society era. For people, for organizations, and for nations, only the bold and dynamic will thrive, because scarcity, in the midst of abundance, will be unprecedented, for many who cannot adjust and recalibrate.

Listen to me three times weekly here https://t.co/Y9HfcMonbt . This is the Accelerated Society Era. That is what I have called it. Meet in class. pic.twitter.com/kyMuxlp97U

— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) August 26, 2023

In the innovation society era, the performance of a great carpenter to an average carpenter could be a factor of 3. In the accelerated society era, with AI and autonomous systems, across many areas, you can see orders of 1000s, between the deployed and non-deployed, on performance. The implication is massive, because a new basis of competition will be created – and that will change many things.

Be like the dragonfly – define your paths.  Relearn. And Learn more because a new era is loading.

Be like the dragonfly – define your paths.  #bebold

The prediction that Bitcoin spot ETFs will surpass Gold ETFs during a Trump presidency has been discussed by Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store. This forecast is based on several factors including the growing acceptance and institutional interest in Bitcoin, coupled with potential policy shifts under a Trump administration that could favor cryptocurrencies.

Geraci’s prediction is supported by the rapid growth in assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen significant inflows since their introduction in early 2024, with some reports indicating they’ve already reached or surpassed key thresholds when compared to gold ETFs.

For instance, it was reported that the iShares Bitcoin ETF had already surpassed the asset size of the iShares Gold Trust by November 2024. This trend is seen as a reflection of Bitcoin’s increasing integration into mainstream finance, buoyed by a pro-crypto policy agenda from Trump, which includes plans for regulatory changes and the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

However, it’s important to approach this prediction with caution as market dynamics can be influenced by numerous variables including regulatory changes, macroeconomic conditions, and shifts in investor sentiment. The comparison between Bitcoin and gold as investment vehicles also hinges on their perceived roles as hedges against inflation or economic instability, where traditionally gold has been favored, but Bitcoin is increasingly seen in a similar light, especially with its fixed supply cap.

The context of Trump’s previous administration and his public stance on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, suggests a potentially more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, which could indeed propel Bitcoin ETFs ahead of gold ETFs in asset size. However, this is speculative, and while the ETF Store president’s insights are based on recent trends and potential policy directions, the actual outcome would depend on a myriad of factors including how the administration navigates the complex landscape of financial regulation and economic policy.

Donald Trump’s approach to cryptocurrency regulation during his presidency has shown a significant evolution from skepticism to a more supportive stance. Here’s an overview based on available information:

Skepticism to Support: Initially, during his first term, Trump was critical of cryptocurrencies, describing Bitcoin as “based on thin air” in 2018 and later as a “scam” in 2021, expressing concerns over their volatility and potential for facilitating illegal activities. However, leading up to and following his re-election campaign, Trump has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate, promising to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet.” This includes pledges to create a strategic national Bitcoin reserve and to establish a “bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council.”

Regulatory Promises: Trump has advocated for regulatory clarity, aiming to reduce the ambiguity that has been seen as a hindrance to private sector innovation. He promised to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, seen as an adversary by the crypto industry due to his aggressive regulatory approach, and to appoint a more crypto-friendly SEC chair.

There’s an expectation that under Trump, the regulation of digital assets might shift from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which some in the industry believe would be less stringent. This shift could potentially clarify the regulatory status of cryptocurrencies, defining them more clearly as commodities rather than securities.

Industry Expectations: The crypto industry has responded positively to these promises, with Bitcoin reaching new highs post-election, reflecting optimism about a more favorable regulatory environment. There’s an anticipation of less enforcement action against crypto companies and more focus on rulemaking that would facilitate mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. Industry leaders are in communication with Trump’s transition team to influence policy and personnel decisions, aiming for a regulatory framework that supports innovation while providing necessary investor protections.

Potential Risks and Criticisms: Critics worry that a lax regulatory environment might increase risks of fraud and market manipulation, potentially leading to another financial crisis or enabling extremist groups to use cryptocurrencies for nefarious purposes. There’s also concern about how much Trump’s personal financial interests in cryptocurrencies might influence policy, potentially leading to conflicts of interest.

While Trump has expressed intentions to foster a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, the exact policies and their implementation would depend on legislative cooperation, regulatory appointments, and the broader economic context. The industry and investors are closely watching these developments, expecting a shift that could significantly impact the crypto landscape.

‘The son of IBM’s founder, Thomas J. Watson Jr took Big Blue’s reins in 1956 and made a critical decision: to ditch electromechanical punch card systems, then the company’s bread and butter, in favor of electronic computers—which, in his words, didn’t fire his father’s imagination. By the time Watson retired 15 years later, businesses were silicon-obsessed and IBM’s annual sales were more than 250 times (!) what they were when he took the top job.’ – Fortune Magazine.

As a result of what he did, the magazine wrote a piece about him, baptising him as the “The Greatest Capitalist in History” in 1987.

I have called the situation where companies pioneer sectors, win and dominate them, but refuse to leave despite what the market is telling them, Innovation And Monopoly Hangover.

In business, it takes a lot of boldness to overcome the hangover? Could Kodak have left thin film photography when it invented the first digital camera in 1975? It was digital camera evolution that destroyed Kodak.

Could Blackberry (Research in Motion) have left the physical keyboard which was working for it, for the virtual one it also had on the shelf, without giving the Apple iPhone more ways to differentiate?

The fact is this: what is working today may not work tomorrow. And that is why Google’s Alphabet is the finest technology company in the world. From quantum computing to autonomous vehicles, from medical research to mobile devices, and more, Alphabet is peerless in all forms, to thrive today, and also win tomorrow, because through different clusters, it is calibrating out any hangover possible.

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Excellent take, Ndubuisi.

This is why it is very necessary for business leaders to remain perpetually curious:

What is possible? What more can achieved? What emerging opportunities should be explored?

McKinsey’s Three Horizons Framework is useful in setting growth priorities over time:

Horizon 1: Optimise current business operations for greater efficiency and sustainability.

Horizon 2: Expand by exploring adjacent opportunities and scaling new initiatives.

Horizon 3: Drive strategic transformation by consolidating new activities and adapting to evolving dynamics.

Unfortunately, most teams focus only on Horizon 1, missing the long-term potential in Horizons 2 and 3.

Interswitch is Amazing and the Hangover is Over