In a landmark moment for the Sahel region, the military rulers of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are set to hold their first joint summit since their respective coups, indicating the trio’s determination to forge ahead with their alliance.

This summit, a significant step for the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES), will take place in Niamey, Niger, on Saturday, July 6, 2024. Nigerien authorities announced this pivotal meeting on public radio, highlighting the growing importance of the AES.

Niger’s junta leader, Abdourahamane Tiani, will host Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traore and Mali’s Assimi Goita. The leaders are expected to arrive in Niamey on Friday, ahead of the summit. This meeting is strategically scheduled just before the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) summit, underpinning the deepening divide between the three countries and the regional bloc.

The formation of the AES marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Sahel. In January 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced their withdrawal from ECOWAS, citing dissatisfaction with the bloc’s handling of their political situations.

Despite repeated calls from ECOWAS members for them to rejoin, the three countries have remained resolute in their decision. They have instead turned their focus towards the AES, an economic and defense pact aimed at fostering closer ties and mutual support among the three nations.

In mid-May, the foreign ministers of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger met in Niamey to draft the text for the AES confederation, which the heads of state are expected to adopt at the upcoming summit. The AES seeks not only to strengthen economic and defense cooperation but also to establish a common currency, signaling a move towards deeper integration.

The ECOWAS President, Dr. Omar Alieu Touray, has expressed his frustration over the situation. Speaking at the 92nd Ordinary Session of the Council of Ministers in Abuja, he lamented the lack of progress in reintegrating Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger into the regional community.

“Despite our entreaties, in the form of softening of sanctions, invitation of the governments to technical meetings, and request for meetings, we have not yet gotten the right signals from these Member States,” Touray said.

Touray acknowledged the complex international changes affecting member states and proposed a Special Summit on the Future of the Community to address these challenges. He emphasized the need to rethink ECOWAS’s integration approach, governance, and relations with external partners.

The formation of the AES is now seen as unstoppable, with the three Sahelian countries committed to forging their path forward.

However, this development will have significant implications for ECOWAS. The regional bloc, long seen as a stabilizing force in West Africa, will need to adapt to the absence of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Critics have blamed ECOWAS for mishandling the situation earlier on by threatening military action against the countries following their coups, a move that arguably pushed them further away.

Against this backdrop, ECOWAS is expected to continue its mission without these key members. However, analysts have warned that the impact on regional stability, economic cooperation, and collective security efforts will be profound.

The AES, with its focus on economic and defense collaboration, represents a new chapter for the Sahel, but also a stark reminder of the complex dynamics and shifting alliances within West Africa.

The alliance has decided to jettison long-held ties with colonial master France, embracing a new partnership with Russia. This situation has created a new geopolitical order in the Sahel, with many expressing concern that it will have a broader impact.

Nigeria is teetering on the brink of a fresh fuel scarcity crisis as its debt to petrol traders soars past $6 billion, following a significant rise in its subsidy payments, which have reportedly doubled since early April.

According to a Reuters report, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is struggling to balance fixed domestic pump prices with escalating international fuel costs, a predicament that underscores the nation’s deepening economic woes.

This precarious situation emerged as NNPC capped pump prices following the removal of subsidies on May 29, 2023. Despite rising international crude oil prices and a weakening naira, the domestic price of petrol has remained stable, leading to widespread speculation that the government may have reintroduced some form of subsidy.

According to industry insiders who spoke to Reuters, this discrepancy has compounded NNPC’s financial burden, pushing its debt to petrol traders to unprecedented levels.

The financial strain on NNPC became evident earlier this year when late petrol payments exceeded $3 billion. As of now, unpaid amounts for January imports alone have contributed to a ballooning debt of between $4 billion and $5 billion, according to the report.

Under contractual obligations, NNPC is required to settle payments within 90 days of delivery. However, payment delays have caused significant friction with petrol traders.

“The only reason traders are putting up with it is the $250,000 a month (per cargo) for late payment compensation,” explained an industry source.

Reuters reports that at least two suppliers have already stopped participating in recent tenders after reaching their self-imposed debt exposure limits with Nigeria, refusing to send more gasoline until they receive payments. This situation raises the likelihood of fuel scarcity in the coming days, as NNPC struggles to secure sufficient fuel imports.

The federal government has been in denial of current subsidy payments on petrol. However, a recent report submitted to President Tinubu by Finance Minister Wale Edun, projects that fuel subsidies could consume about N5.4 trillion in 2024, up from the N3.6 trillion budgeted for 2023.

In a May interview, Edun suggested that the removal of the fuel subsidy is an ongoing process, indicating that complete removal has not yet been achieved.

“It is an ongoing conversation, it is an ongoing process of ensuring that fuel subsidy is eliminated from the Nigerian economy, that is what Mr. President’s intent is and that is what is being worked towards,” he stated.

The removal of the fuel subsidy has been contentious, particularly as crude oil prices rise and the exchange rate continues to depreciate. Several analyses based on the international price of petrol prove that a partial subsidy still exists despite official claims of its removal.

Against this backdrop, observers maintain that the federal government has subtly reintroduced the subsidy since its supposed removal on May 29, 2023. Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Mrs. Olu Verheijen, noted that the federal government reserves the right to intermittently pay fuel subsidies to mitigate economic hardship.

On the other hand, NNPC has insisted that no subsidies have been paid into its account from the federal government. Addressing the issue in August 2023, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, stated that the company is merely recovering the cost of imports and that the federal government has not paid any subsidies since May.

A recent report by Tekedia highlighted the unsustainable nature of current subsidy payments. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the pump price of petrol rose to N769.62 per liter in May 2024. This represents a staggering 223.21% increase from the N238.11 per liter recorded in May 2023 and a 9.75% rise from April 2024’s price of N701.24.

The report questioned the sustainability of subsidy payments, given the significant financial burden and the rising costs amidst Nigeria’s dwindling oil revenue.

This is a summary of Maro Elias’ Fintech Lessons from Chess. I have deployed the Tekedia AI Lecture companion which we now use to summarize lecture materials and videos in Tekedia Institute.

Understanding the intricate parallels between chess and the fintech industry unveils a world where strategic thinking, risk management, agility, perseverance, and the ability to differentiate routine actions from strategic decisions reign supreme. Just as in chess where each move can determine victory or defeat, fintech companies navigate a complex landscape where every decision impacts their market position and growth trajectory.

The essence of chess lies in its gameplay and strategy; similarly, fintech leverages technology to enhance financial services through innovation and automation. The value proposition of fintech firms lies in their ability to revolutionize traditional financial processes by harnessing cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning.

In this evolving landscape, market share becomes a battleground where fintech companies strive to capture a larger slice of the financial services pie through innovative solutions that cater to modern consumer needs. Perseverance is key as these firms face challenges akin to navigating a high-stakes chess match – requiring persistence despite setbacks or delays in achieving success.

Looking ahead, the future outlook for both chess and fintech converges on technology-driven advancements that emphasize data analytics, automation, and adaptive strategies. As these industries continue to evolve hand-in-hand with technological progressions, teamwork emerges as another critical factor for success – whether it be in collaborative innovation efforts within fintech or team-based competitions within the realm of competitive chess.

Summary

Understanding chess involves predicting opponent moves and strategizing responses.

A personal chess experience led to a determination to excel at the game.

Drawing parallels between chess and fintech, highlighting key lessons.

Customers will use products if they perceive value; clear value propositions are crucial.

Focus on capturing significant opportunities in fintech, not minor ones like capturing pawns in chess.

Identifying potential market growth opportunities akin to a pawn becoming a queen in chess.

One mistake can lead to significant setbacks in both chess and business.

Avoid overconfidence when leading a market to prevent being disrupted.

Agility and quick deployment are essential in both chess and fintech.

Making strategic trade-offs is necessary for success in both chess and fintech.

Planning for and capitalizing on momentum is crucial in both chess and fintech markets.

Winning in chess sometimes involves staying alive long enough for your opponent to run out of time, showcasing the importance of perseverance and strategic thinking.

Businesses may need to pivot to immediate opportunities for revenue generation while continuing to invest in their core product to capitalize on emerging market infrastructure.

In strategic games like chess, not every move your opponent makes is significant, emphasizing the need to differentiate between routine moves and strategic plays.

Deciphering between important tech news and mere noise is crucial for fintech leaders to make informed decisions and avoid reactionary responses.

Constantly playing defensively in chess or business can lead to eventual loss, highlighting the importance of transitioning to an offensive strategy.

In business, defending market share is not always sufficient; companies should also focus on innovation, market expansion, and stealing market share from competitors.

Redirecting focus from defensive strategies to offensive tactics can help in gaining market share and expanding market consumption.

The Fintech Industry offers opportunities for value creation and market dominance, with parallels drawn to the strategic aspects of chess for fintech leaders to better navigate their markets.

11 Fintech Lessons From the Game of Chess