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Digital Payments to Match Cards And Cash Transactions by 2030 – Worldpay Forcasts
A report by Wordplay forecasts that by 2030, digital payments will match cards and cash transactions, reflecting a shift in global payment landscape driven by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences.
The 10th edition of The Global Payments Report (GPR 2025), provides a comprehensive overview of the consumer-to-business payments landscape worldwide, across regions, and in 40 selected markets, which together represent 88% of global GDP based on IMF data. The report examines payment methods used for online and in-store transactions, highlighting trends through payment method share analysis.
Digital payments, encompassing methods like digital wallets, account-to-account (A2A) transfers, buy now pay later (BNPL) services, and cryptocurrencies, have been growing at an extraordinary pace. Worldpay’s Report reveals that spending through digital payment methods surged from $1.7 trillion in 2014 to $18.7 trillion in 2024 globally, with a projection to exceed $33.5 trillion by 2030.
Several factors are driving this shift. First, the proliferation of smartphones has been a game-changer. Mobile devices’ share of global e-commerce spending tripled from 19% in 2014 to 57% in 2024, with projections estimating 64% by 2030. This has fueled the adoption of mobile-based digital payments. Second, consumer demand for convenience, speed, and security has accelerated the move away from cash, especially during the pandemic era, which boosted contactless and online transactions.
Third, innovations like real-time A2A payment systems are replacing cash in traditionally cash-heavy economies, with A2A e-commerce spending projected to hit $936 billion by 2030, up from $152 billion in 2014. This rapid growth indicates that digital payments are not only gaining traction but are poised to rival traditional payment methods like cash and card transactions in both volume and value within the next few years.
Notably, the report revealed that cash share of payments value plummeted in the past decade yet demand for cash persists. Cash was more important a decade ago, representing 44% of global point-of-sale spending in 2014, slightly more than $16 trillion.
Despite its prominence, cash was in free fall. It fell from 44% of global PoS transaction value in 2014, to 26% in 2019. The pandemic accelerated the need as contactless payments soared. For 2024, Worldpay estimate of cash use globally is 15% of PoS value, just one third of its 2014 share and a $10.5 trillion in reduction value.
Nigeria’s Digital Payments Landscape and Card Market Shift
The Nigerian Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) continues to drive financial inclusion through NIBSS Instant Payments (NIP) and NQR, expanding digital payment accessibility. According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s banked population rose from 30% in 2011 to 45% in 2021, a significant increase over the decade.
Also, a dramatic shift in card scheme market share has been observed, with a move away from global networks like Mastercard and Visa toward Verve, Nigeria’s domestic card scheme. Verve has established dominance in Nigeria’s debit card market, as domestic transactions in Naira offer cost advantages over USD-denominated international schemes. While debit card usage continues to grow, credit card penetration remains relatively low.
In summary, Worldpay’s forecast hinges on the exponential growth of digital payment methods, especially wallets and A2A systems, supported by mobile technology, regulatory backing, and a global push toward cashless economy.
By 2030, digital payments could account for a majority of transaction value—potentially 79% of online and 53% of in-store spending—effectively matching or surpassing the legacy systems of cash and cards, marking a pivotal moment in the evolution of how we pay.
Introduction of Truth.Fi ETFs Could Diversify Crypto Investment Landscape
The introduction of Truth.Fi ETFs could diversify the cryptocurrency investment landscape by blending digital assets (e.g., Bitcoin, Cronos) with traditional securities tied to U.S. industries like energy. This hybrid approach might attract investors seeking exposure to both crypto and “Made in America” themes, potentially boosting demand for assets like CRO and DJT stock, as evidenced by the 9-10% after-hours surge following the announcement.
By integrating these ETFs into Crypto.com’s app (140 million+ users) and existing brokerage platforms globally, the partnership lowers barriers to entry for retail investors. This could accelerate mainstream adoption of crypto-linked financial products, especially if regulatory approval is secured later in 2025. TMTG’s plan to invest up to $250 million of its cash reserves into Truth.Fi SMAs signals a shift toward fintech and crypto as revenue streams. However, with DJT stock down 38% year-to-date, this move could either stabilize the company’s finances or expose it to further volatility if the crypto market falters.
The partnership reinforces Donald Trump’s growing footprint in the crypto space, following ventures like World Liberty Financial and the TRUMP memecoin. As president, his association with TMTG and these ETFs raises questions about conflicts of interest, especially if his administration pushes pro-crypto policies that benefit his business interests. Lawmakers have already flagged this concern, which could lead to scrutiny or regulatory pushback. The “Made in America” branding and Devin Nunes’ rejection of “woke nonsense” align with Trump’s populist rhetoric, potentially appealing to his political base. This could politicize the ETFs, making them a litmus test for how his supporters engage with financial products tied to his identity.
Technological Implications
Partnering with Crypto.com, a major player with advanced custody and trading infrastructure, could legitimize and accelerate the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional finance. The use of Foris Capital US LLC as a U.S. broker-dealer suggests a focus on regulatory compliance, which might set a precedent for other crypto ETF launches. The hybrid ETF model is innovative, but its success hinges on navigating complex regulatory landscapes (e.g., SEC approval) and managing the volatility of digital assets alongside traditional securities. Technical execution will be critical, especially with Crypto.com handling backend operations.
The ETFs’ Trump branding and anti-“woke” framing might deepen societal divides, attracting his supporters while alienating others. Investment decisions could become more ideologically driven; mirroring trends seen in politically charged consumer brands. The high-profile nature of this venture, tied to a sitting president, could prompt stricter oversight of crypto-financial products. If successful, it might encourage competitors to launch similar offerings; if it fails or sparks controversy, it could invite tighter restrictions.
The ETFs’ launch by late 2025 depends on approval, which isn’t guaranteed given the SEC’s cautious stance on crypto products and potential political sensitivities. Crypto’s inherent instability, combined with TMTG’s shaky stock performance, could undermine investor confidence if economic conditions sour. Trump’s involvement might deter institutional investors wary of political baggage, limiting the ETFs’ appeal beyond his core audience. This partnership could reshape TMTG’s trajectory, amplify Trump’s influence in finance, and test the viability of politically branded investment products. Its success will depend on execution, market reception, and navigating the intersection of politics and regulation—making it a high-stakes experiment with ripple effects across multiple domains.
High Data Cost is a Silent Assassin of Nigeria’s Tech Future
Accessible telecommunications and communication in Nigeria could ignite a revolution—economically, socially, and politically—by unlocking the potential of a population over 200 million strong. The pieces are already in motion: telecoms like MTN, Airtel, Glo, and 9mobile have driven mobile penetration to 82% of Africa’s telecom subscribers, per 2024 NCC data, with active subscriptions hitting 222 million. But accessibility—affordable, reliable, and widespread—remains the spark that could turn this connectivity into transformative fire. Data’s still a luxury for many; at 800 Naira ($0.50) per gigabyte in 2023, it’s a chunk of income for the 40% below the poverty line.
Telcos could slash this—India’s Jio flooded the market with dirt-cheap plans, boosting penetration from 20% to 60% in five years. Nigeria’s National Broadband Plan aims for 390 Naira ($0.25) by 2025, and Starlink’s satellite internet is already shaking up rural pricing. If telcos pair this with subsidized smartphones—say, via installment plans like Kenya’s Safaricom—digital entry barriers crumble. A 10% jump in mobile internet penetration could lift GDP per capita by 2.5%, per the IFC, adding $180 billion continent-wide by 2025.
Coverage is the next fuse. Urban hubs like Lagos hum with 5G, but rural areas—home to 40 million unconnected Nigerians—lag with spotty 2G or nothing.
The government’s plan for 7,000 new towers by 2025 could bridge this, especially if telcos lean on shared infrastructure (IHS Towers controls 60% of the market) and solar-powered base stations to dodge Nigeria’s shaky grid. Pair that with mesh networks or satellite links—Starlink’s now in 80 countries—and you’ve got a web that reaches the hinterlands. Kenya’s M-Pesa exploded because rural farmers got connected; Nigeria’s fintech could do the same, with mobile money already at $500 million monthly via telcos like MTN.
Communication itself—fast, open, encrypted—could light the match. X, WhatsApp and Telegram already fuel grassroots movements; #EndSARS in 2020 showed how digital defiance can mobilize millions. Accessible telcos could amplify this, offering cheap, secure platforms for dissent or innovation. Imagine encrypted voting apps, like Estonia’s, hitting Nigeria’s elections—Trump’s 2025 order pushes paper, but digital could leapfrog that if trust holds. Education and health follow: teleclinics and e-learning, already growing via Glo’s data bundles, could scale if bandwidth’s universal.
The tinder’s dry—Nigeria’s young, tech-hungry population (60% under 25) and a telecom sector growing 15.7% in Q1 2024, per NBS. But risks loom; power outages, regulatory red tape, and telco debt could smother it. Still, if MTN’s 5G rollout or Glo’s rural push hit critical mass, this isn’t evolution—it’s a revolution. Economic inclusion, political voice, and social equity could erupt from a SIM card and a signal. High data costs in Nigeria are indeed a chokehold on innovation and education, strangling potential before it can breathe. At 800 Naira ($0.50) per gigabyte in 2023—down from $2 a decade ago but still steep for a country where 40% live on less than $1.90 daily—it’s a tax on ambition. For a student streaming a lecture or a coder testing an app, that’s hours of income burned just to stay in the game.
Startups—Nigeria’s pulled $1.8 billion in venture capital in 2024, per Partech—rely on cloud tools, APIs, and real-time testing. A developer in Ibadan debugging via AWS or GitHub can blow 4,000 Naira ($2.50) weekly on data, half a rural teacher’s wage. Compare that to India, where Jio’s $0.06-per-GB plans fueled a startup boom: 100,000 new ventures in five years. High costs here mean talent stays offline or scales slow—Flutterwave and Paystack thrived despite this, but how many more could’ve sparked? The World Bank pegs a 10% broadband boost to 1.38% GDP growth in developing nations: Nigeria’s losing billions to this bottleneck.
Education’s hit harder. Over 10 million kids are out of school, per UNESCO, and e-learning could bridge that—except data’s a wall. A 1-hour Zoom class chews 1.5 GB, or 1,200 Naira ($0.75); for a family of three students, that’s a week’s food budget. Free platforms like Khan Academy or local EdTech like uLesson get choked too streaming a math video isn’t free if your data’s gone. South Africa’s MTN zero-rated educational sites in 2020, spiking usage 40%; Nigeria’s telcos haven’t followed. Result? Rural kids stay analog, and urban ones ration learning. A 2023 GSMA study found 20% higher literacy rates tied to affordable internet—Nigeria’s missing that shot.
Telcos like MTN and Airtel rake in $3 billion yearly, per NCC, but competition’s lazy—four players dominate 97% of the market. The Broadband Plan’s 390 Naira ($0.25) target by 2025 is a pipe dream without regulatory teeth or a Jio-style disruptor. Starlink’s $40 monthly rural plans hint at pressure, but uptake’s slow—5,000 users by Q1 2025. Meanwhile, 40 million unconnected Nigerians, mostly young, are locked out of digital classrooms and codebases. Cut data to $0.10 per GB, and the dam breaks. Coders build apps, not excuses; students stream, not dream. Lagos could rival Bangalore; rural Enugu could birth the next fintech unicorn. High costs aren’t just a nuisance—they’re a silent assassin of Nigeria’s future.
Nigeria Announces Launch of $654m Mortgage Fund to Tackle Worsening Housing Deficit
The Federal Government of Nigeria is set to establish a N1 trillion ($654 million) housing fund to provide affordable mortgages, a move aimed at addressing the country’s massive housing deficit.
Finance Minister Wale Edun announced the initiative on Tuesday, explaining that the fund will provide single-digit and low double-digit interest rate mortgages to enable more Nigerians to own homes.
The first phase of the project has already secured N250 billion, sourced from a combination of concessional loans and private-sector contributions. A key component of the funding structure includes a 40-year concessional loan from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) at a 1% interest rate. Local pension funds, banks, and insurance firms are also contributing matching funds.
“Nigeria’s housing finance market needs deep reform to make homeownership more accessible,” Edun said. “This fund will enable Nigerians to access mortgages at single-digit and low double-digit interest rates, making homeownership more attainable.”
A Housing Crisis Decades in the Making
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, has struggled with an acute housing shortage for years. The Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria estimates that the nation requires at least 28 million new homes to meet demand, a staggering deficit that has only worsened as urbanization accelerates.
Despite this pressing need, mortgage financing remains underdeveloped. Mortgages account for less than 1% of Nigeria’s GDP, a stark contrast to developed economies where housing finance is a key driver of economic growth. High interest rates—often exceeding 20%—have made mortgages unaffordable for most Nigerians, forcing the majority of real estate transactions to be conducted in cash. This cash-based system has fueled corruption, inflated property prices, and made homeownership nearly impossible for low- and middle-income earners.
The new fund is expected to help stimulate a construction boom by providing developers with guaranteed off-takers, thereby ensuring a steady supply of new homes. The initiative is also designed to formalize homeownership by making financing more accessible, which in turn would create jobs and stimulate economic growth.
Road Infrastructure Projects Also in the Pipeline
Alongside the housing initiative, the Federal Government is also advancing plans to upgrade Nigeria’s road infrastructure. Edun revealed that contracts are being finalized with private investors to construct and manage 40 major roads, covering a total distance of 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles).
The Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a Lagos-based multilateral financial institution, is among the key investors backing this infrastructure push. The government hopes that these projects will enhance connectivity, reduce transportation costs, and improve access to new housing developments.
Strong Private Sector Participation in the Housing Fund
Last week, the Ministry of Finance Incorporated Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) successfully closed its N250 billion pilot fundraising, marking a significant milestone in Nigeria’s effort to address its housing finance gap.
The second series of the MREIF issuance, worth N100 billion, was fully subscribed, signaling strong investor confidence in the fund’s structure. The first series had raised N150 billion, demonstrating robust demand from institutional investors seeking stable, long-term returns in the real estate sector.
“The full subscription of Series 2 demonstrates pent-up demand for structured housing finance solutions and investor confidence in MREIF as a sustainable investment vehicle,” Edun noted.
The initiative is expected to transform Nigeria’s housing sector by unlocking new sources of capital and reducing reliance on government budgets. The success of the pilot phase indicates that private investors see housing finance as a viable sector, which could lead to further investments in mortgage-backed securities and affordable housing projects.
With both housing and road infrastructure projects in motion, the government hopes to address two of Nigeria’s most pressing challenges—affordable housing and poor infrastructure. However, experts note that the success of these initiatives will depend on effective implementation, transparency in fund allocation, and ensuring that the mortgages remain accessible to those who need them most.