West Africa is a region with immense potential for economic growth and development. It has abundant natural resources, a young and dynamic population, and a strategic location on the Atlantic coast. However, the region also faces significant challenges, such as poverty, inequality, corruption, and insecurity. One of the most pressing issues that affects the economic prospects of West Africa is the political uncertainty and instability that plagues many of its countries.
West Africa has witnessed a surge of coups and attempted coups in recent years, raising concerns about the state of democracy and security in the sub region. Since 2010, there have been over 20 coups and coups attempt in West Africa and the Sahel, with seven occurring since 2019. Most of these coups have taken place in former French colonies, such as Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger and recently Gabon. These coups have disrupted the democratic process, undermined the rule of law, and eroded citizens’ trust in political institutions. They have also created an atmosphere of uncertainty, hindering sustainable socio-economic development and regional integration.
What are the causes of these incessant coups? There are both inward-looking and outward-looking factors that contribute to the instability and vulnerability of West African states. Inward-looking factors include governance deficits, non-fulfilment of the entitlements of citizenship, frustrated masses (most of whom are young) and growing insecurity. Outward-looking factors include global dynamics that have significant impact on governance and security on the continent, such as the role of external actors, the effects of climate change, and the challenges of transnational terrorism and organized crime.
Governance deficits refer to the lack of effective, accountable and inclusive institutions that can deliver public goods and services, ensure respect for human rights and the rule of law, and manage social diversity and conflicts. Many West African states suffer from weak governance capacity, corruption, nepotism, patronage, and authoritarian tendencies that undermine democratic principles and practices.
These factors create dissatisfaction and disillusionment among the population, especially the youth, who constitute the majority of the population in most West African countries. The youth face high levels of unemployment, poverty, inequality, and social exclusion, which make them vulnerable to radicalization and recruitment by violent groups or coup plotters.
Non-fulfilment of the entitlements of citizenship refers to the failure of the state to meet the expectations and aspirations of its citizens in terms of political participation, representation, protection, and empowerment. Many West African citizens feel that their voices are not heard or respected by their governments, that their interests are not taken into account or protected by their leaders, and that they have no say or influence over the decisions that affect their lives.
This leads to a loss of trust and confidence in political institutions and processes, and a sense of alienation and frustration among the citizenries. This also creates a legitimacy crisis for the elected governments, which are often perceived as illegitimate, unrepresentative, or incompetent by their opponents or critics.
Growing insecurity refers to the increasing threats and challenges to human security and state stability in West Africa. These include armed conflicts, violent extremism, terrorism, organized crime, human trafficking, drug trafficking, piracy, illegal fishing, cybercrime, environmental degradation, natural disasters, epidemics, food insecurity, and humanitarian crises. These threats pose serious risks to the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in West Africa, as well as to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of West African states. They also undermine the efforts to achieve peace, development, democracy,
Political uncertainty and instability can have negative impacts on the economy in various ways. First, they can deter foreign and domestic investment, as investors may perceive the region as too risky or unpredictable. This can reduce the inflow of capital, technology, and expertise that are essential for economic development. Second, they can disrupt trade and commerce, as political violence, civil unrest, or border closures can hamper the movement of goods and people across the region.
This can affect the competitiveness and productivity of businesses, as well as the availability and affordability of essential goods and services for consumers. Third, they can undermine public institutions and governance, as political instability can erode the legitimacy and effectiveness of state authorities, weaken the rule of law, and foster corruption and impunity. This can affect the delivery and quality of public goods and services, such as infrastructure, education, health, and security, that are vital for economic growth and social welfare.
Therefore, it is imperative that West Africa addresses the root causes and drivers of political uncertainty and instability in order to unleash its economic potential. Some of the possible solutions include strengthening democratic institutions and processes, promoting inclusive and participatory governance, enhancing regional cooperation and integration, fostering social cohesion and dialogue, and addressing structural inequalities and grievances. By doing so, West Africa can create a more conducive environment for economic development, as well as for peace and stability.
