Economists expect slower but still robust export growth, with investors watching whether external demand can offset weakness in the domestic economy

China’s export growth likely moderated in July after posting its strongest increase in months in June, although overseas shipments are expected to remain exceptionally strong as booming global demand for artificial intelligence-related products and a rush by businesses to ship goods ahead of higher U.S. tariffs continued to support the world’s largest exporting nation.

Trade data due on Friday from China’s General Administration of Customs will provide one of the first major indicators of economic activity in the second half of the year, offering investors fresh insight into whether resilient overseas demand can continue to cushion an economy facing persistent weakness at home.

According to a Reuters poll of 35 economists, China’s exports are expected to have risen 22.2% year-on-year in July, measured in U.S. dollar terms. While that would represent a slowdown from June’s 27% surge, it would still rank among the strongest export performances in recent years.

Imports are forecast to increase 27.9% from a year earlier, easing from June’s 36% jump but pointing to continued solid demand for commodities, intermediate goods and components used in manufacturing.

China’s monthly trade surplus is expected to narrow to about $107 billion from $125.62 billion in June, although it would remain historically elevated and continue to underscore the country’s dominance in global manufacturing.

The export sector has become one of the Chinese economy’s most important sources of resilience as policymakers struggle to revive domestic demand following a prolonged property downturn, subdued consumer spending and weak private-sector confidence.

While household consumption and the real estate sector continue to weigh on economic growth, manufacturers have increasingly relied on overseas markets to sustain production, investment and employment.

A key driver of that resilience has been the rapid expansion of global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Chinese manufacturers have benefited from rising international demand for AI-related hardware, including servers, networking equipment, industrial electronics, batteries, power management systems and other components used in building data centers. The AI investment cycle has created new export opportunities for Chinese suppliers across the technology supply chain, helping offset slower demand in more traditional manufacturing sectors.

At the same time, analysts say a significant portion of recent export strength has been driven by “frontloading,” as companies accelerate shipments before higher U.S. tariffs take effect.

Both Chinese exporters and American importers have sought to move goods across the Pacific ahead of new trade restrictions, temporarily boosting export volumes beyond underlying demand. That trend intensified after the United States imposed a new 12.5% tariff on Chinese imports on July 24, replacing a temporary 10% levy that had expired. The tariff forms part of the Trump administration’s broader effort to reshape global trade by targeting countries Washington says have failed to address forced labor concerns.

The administration is also conducting a separate investigation into industrial overcapacity among key trading partners, a process that analysts expect could result in additional tariffs on Chinese exports in the coming months.

The prospect of further trade barriers has encouraged manufacturers to accelerate shipments while existing tariff rates remain relatively manageable.

However, several factors are expected to have tempered trade activity during July.

Analysts say severe weather, including typhoons that disrupted logistics along parts of China’s coastline, likely reduced port throughput, delayed shipping schedules and temporarily constrained both exports and imports. Those disruptions came as other economic indicators pointed to a broader slowdown in domestic activity.

Official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data released in late July showed that manufacturing activity contracted for another month, while services and construction also weakened, suggesting softer demand across multiple sectors of the economy.

Private-sector business surveys painted a similar picture, indicating slower expansion in both manufacturing and services as companies grappled with subdued domestic orders and continuing uncertainty over global trade conditions.

The mixed economic backdrop has intensified pressure on Beijing to introduce additional policy support.

At a meeting in late July, the Communist Party’s Politburo, China’s highest decision-making body, pledged to accelerate fiscal spending and make timely adjustments to monetary policy tools to support economic growth. The statement signaled policymakers remain prepared to provide further stimulus if economic momentum weakens.

However, the leadership stopped short of announcing large-scale measures aimed at boosting household consumption or implementing broader structural reforms that many economists believe are necessary to place China’s economy on a more sustainable growth path.

The absence of stronger consumer-focused stimulus has reinforced expectations that exports will continue to shoulder much of the burden of supporting economic expansion.

China’s trade performance is also attracting increasing international scrutiny.

The country recorded a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion last year, fueling criticism from the United States and several other trading partners, which note that China’s export-led growth model contributes to persistent global trade imbalances and excess industrial capacity.

Those concerns have translated into a growing wave of tariffs, export restrictions and trade investigations targeting Chinese products, particularly in sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.

Friday’s trade figures will be closely watched by investors not only as a measure of China’s external demand but also as an indicator of the broader health of the global economy.

Analysts expect another month of robust export growth to boost expectations that AI-driven investment and tariff frontloading continue to provide powerful support for Chinese manufacturers.

European equities hit fresh records while investors look past technology volatility and await key U.S. jobs data for clues on Federal Reserve policy

Global equity markets regained momentum on Thursday, with European stocks climbing to fresh record highs as stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and renewed optimism about artificial intelligence-driven growth outweighed concerns over a volatile technology sector and uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy.

Investor sentiment also received support after reports of a proposed diplomatic arrangement involving Iran and Oman that markets interpreted as a possible step toward easing tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict, reducing fears of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

The rebound followed a cautious overnight session on Wall Street and across Asian markets, where investors took profits in several high-flying semiconductor and AI-related stocks after recent earnings failed to exceed elevated market expectations.

By early European trading, however, risk appetite had returned.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index touched a record high, supported by gains in media and telecommunications shares, before trading 0.4% higher. London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.8%, while Germany’s DAX added 0.1%.

The recovery highlighted investors’ continued willingness to buy into temporary market weakness, particularly as corporate earnings continue to indicate resilient economic activity and sustained investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Hani Redha, multi-asset portfolio manager at MetLife, described the previous session’s weakness as a natural pause following an exceptionally strong rally.

“This is just part of an overall hangover from a tremendous party we’ve had in the market over the last few trading sessions,” Redha said.

“We remain pretty constructive. I don’t expect the pace of returns that we saw over the last few weeks, but we should be still in a market environment which is conducive for risk assets, equities in particular.”

This supports a broader market view that recent volatility is being driven more by positioning and lofty investor expectations than by deterioration in economic or corporate fundamentals.

The latest swings have been particularly pronounced across technology stocks, where soaring valuations have raised the threshold for earnings surprises. Although several AI-linked companies reported results that exceeded Wall Street estimates, investors reacted negatively after the performances failed to surpass the market’s most optimistic forecasts.

Shares of Sandisk, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and storage technology company Western Digital all came under pressure after their earnings releases, contributing to weakness across semiconductor stocks.

The pullback spread into Asian markets on Thursday.

Japan’s SoftBank Group fell 4.36%, while semiconductor equipment manufacturer Tokyo Electron dropped more than 5%. Chip testing equipment maker Advantest declined 2.14%, and memory chip producer Kioxia tumbled 8.84%.

South Korea’s technology sector also came under heavy selling pressure. SK Hynix slid 9.71%, Samsung Electronics lost 6.13%, and Seoul Semiconductor fell 4.27%.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, declined 1.46%.

The declines followed a powerful rally the previous day, when many Asian technology stocks posted double-digit gains, underscoring the heightened volatility that has become a defining feature of AI-related equities.

Despite the sharp swings, analysts continue to express confidence in the sector’s longer-term outlook.

J.P. Morgan said in a research note on Wednesday that the recent sell-off had not altered the underlying investment case for artificial intelligence.

While investors have questioned whether technology companies can sustain the current pace of AI spending, the bank said it does not expect major cloud providers to significantly reduce capital expenditure.

“Stepping away from the share price moves, we do not see any fundamental indicators that signal meaningful weakness in the next 6-12 months,” the bank said.

The assessment echoes a growing consensus among analysts that recent declines reflect valuation concerns rather than weakening demand for AI infrastructure. Supporting that view, S&P Global said in a report published on Aug. 5 that global economic growth is increasingly being driven by investment in artificial intelligence and defense.

The report noted that output among manufacturers of technology equipment expanded in July at its fastest pace since May 2021.

“Alongside rising demand for software and related IT services, technology reported the fastest growth for ten months,” S&P Global said.

The findings suggest that demand across the AI supply chain, spanning semiconductors, servers, networking equipment and enterprise software, remains robust despite periodic market corrections.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments also influenced investor sentiment.

Oil prices retreated below the $80-per-barrel mark after Reuters reported a proposal involving Iran and Oman that could help bring an end to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Under the reported proposal, Iran would assume control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important oil shipping routes. The United States did not comment on the proposal, which would represent one of Washington’s most significant concessions to Tehran if implemented.

Although Brent crude later edged 0.3% higher to $79.70 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 0.2% to $75.37, traders appeared less concerned that geopolitical tensions would trigger another sustained spike in energy prices.

Redha said markets had become increasingly resilient to developments in the Middle East.

“Overall, we’ve been less concerned, I’d say, about what look like negative developments from that region. It is a headwind when oil prices do spike, but we don’t think that they’re going to derail the cycle,” he said.

The moderation in oil prices also eased concerns about inflation, an important consideration for central banks as they weigh future interest-rate decisions.

In bond markets, euro zone government debt traded largely unchanged. Germany’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield was little changed at 3.1118%, while investors prepared for France to auction nearly €13 billion ($15 billion) in government bonds later in the session.

Currency markets were similarly subdued.

The euro slipped less than 0.1% to $1.1540, while the U.S. dollar index edged 0.1% higher to 99.767. The Japanese yen traded at 157.85 per dollar, giving back some of the gains recorded after coordinated intervention by U.S. and Japanese authorities last week.

Investors are now turning their attention to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due later in the day, one of the most closely watched economic releases for financial markets.

The employment report is expected to provide important clues about the strength of the U.S. labor market and help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that she fully supported last week’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, arguing policymakers need additional evidence before determining how to respond to inflation, which remains well above the central bank’s 2% target.

Peloton Interactive delivered its first full year of net profit and operating income in fiscal 2026, marking a major turnaround for the connected fitness company after years of losses.

However, the company warned that revenue is expected to decline in fiscal 2027 as it laps previous price increases on its hardware and subscription plans and continues to grapple with slowing equipment demand. The cautious outlook overshadowed stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results, sending Peloton shares down about 13% in premarket trading as investors focused on the weaker sales forecast rather than the company’s improving profitability.

Chief Executive Officer Peter Stern described fiscal 2026 as a defining year in Peloton’s transformation.

“This was the year where Peloton sort of grew up,” Stern told CNBC in an interview, describing fiscal 2026 as a “landmark” year financially.

“That solid foundation positions us for what we need to do to get to long-term growth to deliver on our strategy of becoming a connected wellness company and puts us in really our strongest position to date.”

For the fiscal year ended June 30, Peloton reported net income of $63.2 million, compared with a $118.9 million loss a year earlier, helped by higher pricing introduced last fall, ongoing cost discipline and operational improvements.

The company also achieved its first full year of positive operating income, highlighting the success of its restructuring efforts after several years of aggressive cost reductions, workforce cuts and operational streamlining aimed at restoring financial stability following the post-pandemic slowdown in demand for home fitness equipment.

Despite reaching profitability, Peloton’s growth story remains incomplete.

The company expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline nearly 4% to between $2.3 billion and $2.4 billion, below analysts’ expectations of $2.42 billion, according to LSEG. The forecast suggests that while higher pricing has strengthened margins, demand for Peloton’s premium exercise bikes and treadmills remains under pressure as consumers continue to curb discretionary spending in a higher interest-rate environment.

Management nevertheless expects another year of positive free cash flow and forecasts further improvement in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA, indicating profitability should continue even if top-line growth remains subdued.

During the fiscal fourth quarter ended June 30, Peloton delivered mixed results.

Adjusted earnings came in at 13 cents per share, matching analysts’ expectations, while revenue rose modestly to $607.7 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $598 million compiled by LSEG. Quarterly net income nearly tripled to $61.6 million, or 13 cents per share, from $21.6 million, or 5 cents per share, in the corresponding period last year.

Although revenue edged higher during the quarter, annual sales still declined in fiscal 2026, underscoring the challenge of returning the business to sustained growth after the pandemic-driven boom in demand for connected fitness equipment faded.

Peloton’s strategy has increasingly shifted from simply selling hardware to building a recurring subscription business centered on digital fitness content and member engagement. Investors have been closely watching subscriber trends, as recurring subscription revenue generally provides higher margins and more predictable cash flows than one-time equipment sales.

Stern acknowledged that subscriber growth remains a work in progress but said operating trends are improving.

“We are gradually improving the trajectory of our gross adds and our connected fitness sales while we’re keeping churn flat,” he said.

“We’re not at the stage yet where we turn the net of all those things positive, but we’re getting better and better so that’s basically the story of fiscal year ’27. We’re a work in progress on that one but the trajectory is getting better in ’27 than it’s been in a long time.”

To strengthen member retention and improve engagement, Peloton recently appointed Sarah Robb O’Hagan as Chief Content and Member Development Officer, replacing longtime executive Jen Cotter.

According to Stern, Robb O’Hagan is leading a broad initiative to improve the customer experience throughout the membership journey.

“We’ve kicked off a major project under Sarah focusing on member development. This looks at everything from onboarding through to the experience of live classes,” he said.

He added that the company has also renewed contracts with many of its existing instructors while bringing in new talent to broaden its content offering.

“The other thing that Sarah’s done is at the same time that we’re adding new instructors, she has re-signed contracts with a significant portion of our existing instructors. So we’re continuing to deliver on what our members love about Peloton while also sort of challenging them to broaden their experience.”

Beyond subscriptions, Peloton is seeking new sources of growth through strategic partnerships and expansion into commercial fitness facilities. The company recently announced a partnership with Spotify to integrate music more deeply into its fitness platform and plans to launch its first commercial versions of its Bike and Tread later this year, enabling hotels, health clubs and corporate fitness centers to offer Peloton equipment.

While Stern declined to identify potential commercial partners, he said market interest has been encouraging.

“We’re having lots of conversations, but we’re not actually making sales yet,” he said.

Peloton’s latest results indicate that the company is entering a new phase of its turnaround. The business has largely repaired its balance sheet, restored profitability and generated positive cash flow after years of restructuring. The next challenge is reigniting sustainable revenue growth by expanding its subscriber base, improving member retention and diversifying beyond its traditional direct-to-consumer hardware business.