Exxon Mobil chief executive Darren Woods has issued one of the starkest warnings yet about the deepening fallout from the Iran war, cautioning that global energy markets have not fully priced in the scale of disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking during Exxon’s first-quarter earnings call, Woods said current oil prices fail to reflect what he described as an “unprecedented disruption” to global crude and natural gas supplies, arguing that temporary buffers have masked the severity of the shock.
“It’s obvious to most that if you look at the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn’t seen the full impact of that yet,” Woods said. “There’s more to come if the strait remains closed.”
The remarks come as traders, governments, and energy companies struggle to gauge the long-term consequences of a conflict that has destabilized one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil trade and a significant share of liquefied natural gas shipments, making it one of the most strategically sensitive chokepoints in the global economy.
While oil prices initially surged after the outbreak of hostilities, markets have since swung violently between fears of prolonged disruption and hopes for diplomatic de-escalation. U.S. crude fell more than 3% Friday to about $101 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped to roughly $108. Even at those levels, Woods suggested the market remains underestimating the potential supply shock.
“These prices are more consistent with historic levels over the past decade rather than the scale of the disruption in the Middle East,” he said.
A key reason prices have not climbed even higher, according to Exxon, is that the market has been cushioned by short-term emergency supply channels. Loaded oil tankers that had already departed the Gulf before the closure continued delivering cargoes during the first month of the conflict. Governments also tapped strategic petroleum reserves, while refiners and traders drew down commercial inventories to stabilize supply chains.
But Woods warned those buffers are finite.
“The disruption has been mitigated by the large number of loaded oil tankers that were in transit during the first month of the war,” he said, adding that reserve releases and inventory drawdowns had also softened the immediate impact. “One of these supply sources will become exhausted as the conflict goes on.”
That warning carries broader implications for inflation, industrial activity, and energy security. Analysts have increasingly cautioned that sustained oil prices above $100 per barrel could reignite inflationary pressures globally, complicating monetary policy at a time when major central banks are already navigating elevated geopolitical risk and slowing growth.
The effects are already visible inside Exxon’s own operations. The company said its Middle East production would decline by 750,000 barrels per day compared with 2025 levels if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through the second quarter. Refinery throughput globally would also fall about 3% from fourth-quarter 2025 levels.
Woods later told CNBC that roughly 15% of Exxon’s overall production has been affected by the disruption.
The fallout extends beyond oil. Iranian attacks on Qatar’s liquefied natural gas export infrastructure damaged two production lines in which Exxon holds ownership stakes. According to a filing submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission earlier in April, those facilities accounted for approximately 3% of the company’s upstream production last year.
The LNG disruption is particularly significant because Qatar is among the world’s largest gas exporters, supplying key markets across Europe and Asia. Any prolonged impairment raises concerns about tighter global gas markets heading into peak seasonal demand periods.
Woods also outlined what could become the next phase of the supply crunch even after the conflict eventually subsides. He expects flows through the Persian Gulf to normalize within one or two months after the strait reopens, but warned that the recovery process itself could create additional upward pressure on prices.
“Tanker fleets need to be repositioned, the supply backlog needs to be worked through, and it takes time for vessels to reach their destinations,” Woods said.
That means the market may face a secondary demand surge once hostilities ease. Governments and commercial operators that depleted reserves during the crisis will likely move aggressively to rebuild stockpiles, adding fresh pressure to already strained supply chains.
“Governments and industry will need to refill their strategic reserves and commercial inventories if stockpiles are depleted when the conflict ends,” Woods said. “This will bring more demand to the market and put upward pressure on prices.”
The comments lend credence to a growing concern among energy executives that markets may be underestimating the duration and complexity of the disruption. Unlike previous regional flare-ups, the current conflict has directly targeted shipping routes and export infrastructure central to global energy flows.
Yet investor response has remained relatively muted. Exxon shares were down about 1% in midday trading on Friday and have remained largely flat since the conflict began, even as oil prices have climbed roughly 57% over the same period.
That divergence suggests equity markets remain uncertain whether elevated crude prices will translate into sustained earnings gains for oil majors, especially if operational disruptions offset some of the benefits from higher prices.
The larger issue confronting markets is that the current disruption is no longer being viewed as a short-lived geopolitical shock. With strategic reserves steadily being depleted, commercial inventories tightening, and shipping routes constrained, the conflict is increasingly exposing the fragility of the global energy system.
Woods’ warning signals that the industry believes the most severe economic consequences may still lie ahead.
