Shares of U.S.-listed rare earth mining companies surged on Monday after reports that President Donald Trump is preparing a sweeping initiative to establish a strategic stockpile of critical minerals, a move that would deepen Washington’s involvement in a sector long dominated by China and central to the global energy transition, defense manufacturing, and advanced technologies.

The proposal, known as Project Vault, would create a first-of-its-kind strategic critical-minerals stockpile tailored to support the U.S. private sector, according to Bloomberg News, which cited senior administration officials familiar with the plan. The initiative is designed to sharply reduce America’s reliance on China for rare earth elements and related materials used in electric vehicles, military systems, semiconductors, and other high-value technologies.

Under the plan, Project Vault would combine $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan facility from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, creating a large pool of financing to support domestic mining, processing, and magnet manufacturing. The structure signals an aggressive effort by the Trump administration to mobilize both public and private capital to rebuild supply chains that have eroded over the course of decades.

Investors responded quickly. MP Materials, the operator of the Mountain Pass mine in California and currently the only major U.S. producer of rare earths, rose about 4% in early trading. USA Rare Earth climbed roughly 7%, while Critical Metals Corp jumped around 8%, reflecting expectations that Project Vault could translate into guaranteed demand, government-backed financing, and improved pricing visibility for domestic producers.

The rally underscores how sensitive the sector is to policy signals. Rare earth mining and processing are capital-intensive, environmentally complex, and historically vulnerable to price swings driven by Chinese supply decisions. Any indication of long-term government support can significantly alter the investment case.

A White House spokesperson was not immediately available to comment, but administration officials have increasingly framed critical minerals as a national security priority rather than a purely commercial concern.

Reducing Dependence on China

China currently dominates the global rare earth ecosystem, accounting for the vast majority of processing capacity and magnet production, even when raw materials are mined elsewhere. This concentration has alarmed U.S. policymakers across multiple administrations, particularly as Beijing has shown a willingness to use export controls as a geopolitical tool.

Trump’s Project Vault fits into a broader strategy to reshore or “friend-shore” supply chains tied to strategic industries. By creating a stockpile explicitly designed to support private-sector use, the plan goes beyond traditional government reserves, such as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and instead aims to stabilize supply for manufacturers of EVs, weapons systems, and advanced electronics.

Some companies are already positioning themselves to benefit. USA Rare Earth has held discussions with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, pitching its domestic mining and magnet manufacturing assets as part of the administration’s strategy. Those talks have reportedly led to a proposed deal that could provide the company with around $1.6 billion in funding, subject to conditions, and could include a U.S. government equity stake.

Such an arrangement would mark another step in Washington’s evolving approach, where the federal government is no longer just a regulator or buyer, but a direct investor in strategically sensitive industries.

Project Vault also builds on actions already taken by the Department of Defense. Last summer, the Pentagon struck a landmark agreement with MP Materials that included a government equity stake, a price floor to protect the company from market volatility, and a long-term commitment to purchase specified quantities of rare earth materials and magnets.

That deal was widely seen as a turning point, signaling that the U.S. government is willing to use balance-sheet support and long-term offtake agreements to ensure domestic capacity survives against cheaper Chinese competition.

If implemented, Project Vault could reshape the U.S. rare earth industry by lowering financing costs, reducing market risk, and accelerating investment in downstream processing and magnet production, areas where the U.S. is particularly weak. Analysts say the initiative also reflects a recognition that market forces alone may not be sufficient to rebuild supply chains that China spent decades consolidating with state backing.

More broadly, the plan highlights how industrial policy has become central to U.S. economic strategy under Trump, especially in sectors tied to national security and technological leadership. This indicates for investors that rare earths are no longer a niche commodities play, but a policy-driven strategic asset class.

Nvidia shares slipped in premarket trading on Monday after fresh reports cast doubt on the size and certainty of the chipmaker’s much-publicized plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI.

The semiconductor giant’s stock was down about 1.5% as of 8:47 a.m. ET, following a Wall Street Journal report late Friday that said Nvidia’s plans to make the enormous investment had effectively stalled amid internal uncertainty. The report cited people familiar with the discussions.

The dip underscores growing investor sensitivity to how far — and how fast — spending in the artificial intelligence sector can realistically go.

Nvidia and OpenAI announced in September a sweeping strategic agreement under which Nvidia would help build at least 10 gigawatts of computing infrastructure for OpenAI, an unprecedented scale of AI capacity, alongside a potential equity investment of up to $100 billion. The announcement was widely interpreted as a bold signal of Nvidia’s confidence in OpenAI and of the seemingly limitless appetite for computing power to train and run advanced AI models.

However, according to the Wall Street Journal, Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has since sought to reframe expectations. The report said Huang told industry associates late last year that the $100 billion figure was non-binding and not finalized, while privately voicing concerns about OpenAI’s business discipline and the intensifying competitive landscape, particularly from Alphabet’s Google and fast-rising rival Anthropic.

Those details unsettled investors, not because Nvidia appears to be pulling back from artificial intelligence, but because they introduced uncertainty around what had been treated as a near-guaranteed, headline-grabbing commitment. Markets have increasingly rewarded clarity and penalized ambiguity as AI investments balloon into tens of billions of dollars.

Over the weekend, Huang publicly rejected the suggestion that relations between Nvidia and OpenAI had soured. Speaking during a visit to Taipei, he dismissed reports of friction as “nonsense” and reaffirmed Nvidia’s intention to invest heavily in the AI company, while stopping short of endorsing the original $100 billion figure.

“We are going to make a huge investment in OpenAI,” Huang said in comments reported by Bloomberg. “I believe in OpenAI. The work that they do is incredible. They are one of the most consequential companies of our time, and I really love working with Sam.”

Referring to OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, Huang added, “Sam is closing the round, and we will absolutely be involved. We will invest a great deal of money, probably the largest investment we’ve ever made.”

Crucially, Huang declined to specify an amount, saying it was up to Altman to announce the size of the funding round. He also reiterated that Nvidia’s investment would not exceed $100 billion, effectively reframing the figure as a ceiling rather than a commitment.

That nuance appears to be at the heart of Monday’s market reaction. Sarah Kunst, managing director at Cleo Capital, said on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange” that investors were reacting to the uncertainty rather than to the idea of Nvidia investing in OpenAI.

“One of the things I did notice about Jensen Huang is that there wasn’t a strong, ‘It will be $100 billion,’” Kunst said. “It was, ‘It will be big. It will be our biggest investment ever.’ And so I do think there are some question marks there.”

She added that the public nature of the back-and-forth was unusual. “That kind of back and forth isn’t normal between an investor and a startup to play out in the media,” she said, noting that it may have amplified market unease.

The episode highlights a broader shift in how investors are viewing the AI boom. After a year of soaring valuations driven by expectations of explosive, near-unlimited spending on AI infrastructure, markets are beginning to scrutinize the sustainability, governance, and returns of those investments more closely.

Nvidia sits at the center of that debate. Its chips underpin much of the generative AI revolution, and OpenAI remains one of its most important customers. Any suggestion that Nvidia is applying greater caution to its largest prospective deal inevitably raises questions about whether AI spending is entering a more measured phase.

At the same time, even a significantly smaller investment would still rank among the largest technology funding rounds in history. The Wall Street Journal reported in December that OpenAI is seeking to raise as much as $100 billion, while The New York Times said this week that Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and SoftBank are all in discussions about potential participation.

Thus, Nvidia’s strategic logic of deepening ties with OpenAI remains intact: securing long-term demand for its chips, reinforcing its dominance in AI infrastructure, and maintaining close alignment with one of the most influential AI developers in the world. But Monday’s stock move suggests investors are increasingly focused on the fine print — weighing whether today’s ambitious projections will translate into durable and disciplined growth.