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Is Nigeria’s economy going to be solved by the new Naira Note?

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The secondary history of this country should not be the primary focus of research; instead, it is important to examine its economic foundations in order to identify and resolve any economic challenges. Since nothing can be produced under duress, it is necessary for an efficient economic structure to examine and use ancient analytical, historical, and statistical materials.

The lack of dynamic nature of the economic structure is blatantly apparent in Nigerian society. The higher hills of this issue are the analog developers who use unstructured economic unbalanced equations, which have been seriously depressing the economy like the bitcoin market. Yes, the government and poverty are killing us, but that is not the major goal of this article. The managers and builders of the analogy reject the outdated economic data that was formerly the nation’s route map to improvement. 

The Nigerian economy is comparable to riding in first class on a colliding aircraft. Please check into every area of this country, including the center of the economy; you’ll find that a large number of criminals graduated from there. Future events are uncertain because they involve nature, yet economies can be predicted because they are all governed by the same systems. It is possible to pinpoint the exact moment that the Nigerian economy began to collapse by looking at the introduction of the new administration.

“In order to identify the strong and collapsing systems, the historical root is the one to investigate. Here is the antecedent in history”;

Nigerian Political and Economic change between 1980s — 2020

In contrast to the 1970s, Nigeria’s economy in the 1980s was characterized by its reliance on petroleum, which in 1988 accounted for 77 percent of the Federal Government’s current revenue and 87 percent of export receipts. Another notable economic development in the 1980s was the drop in real gross national product (GNP) per capita, which remained until oil prices started to increase in 1990. This was a result of declining oil output and prices. In fact, between 1980 and 1987, GNP per capita fell by 4.8 percent, which caused Nigeria to be classified by the World Bank as a low-income country (based on 1987 statistics) for the first time since the annual World Development Report was established in 1978. Another relevant feature of the Nigerian economy was an abrupt change in the government’s share of expenditures.

As a percentage of gross domestic product, national government expenditures rose from 9 percent in 1962 to 44 percent in 1979 but fell to 17 percent in 1988. In the aftermath of the 1967–70 civil war, Nigeria’s government became more centralized. The oil boom of the 1970s” provided the tax revenue to strengthen the central government further. 

Expansion of the government’s share of the economy did little to enhance its political and administrative capacity but did increase incomes and the number of jobs that the governing elites could distribute to their clients. Along with nations like Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Chad, and Mali, the World Bank also determined that Nigeria was sufficiently impoverished in 1989 for it to qualify for concessional financing from one of its affiliates, the International Development Association (IDA).

More than 2 million illegal workers (mostly from Ghana, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad) were expelled between January 1983 and May 1985 as a result of political pressure brought on by the economic collapse that occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Boko Haram’s effect on Nigeria’s economy

Since 2011, Boko Haram is thought to be responsible for about 10,000 fatalities and about 2.6 million Nigerians who have been displaced. Nigeria’s economy weakened after Boko Haram started attacking local shops, offices of the government, and community centers like churches and schools. Due to attacks or fear of Boko Haram, local companies started to move to the Southern part of Nigeria. Power outages and security issues brought on by the attacks forced the closure of almost 80% of Kano’s businesses. Boko Haram severely damaged Market Monday, a significant market in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno, forcing nearly 10,000 establishments to close.

According to reports, Boko Haram’s violent attacks on banks led them to reduce their operating hours from eight to three hours in order to reduce the likelihood that they would be attacked, leaving the public dependent on their financial resources. Citizens and the government had to pay for the retribution of damages caused by Boko Haram. This stalled the economy in the northeast region because businesses were leaving, people began to lose jobs, and there was less money going into the local economy. 

Conflict impacts child health through multiple pathways. Nigeria lost 1.33 trillion dollars in foreign investments as a result of international investors withholding their money due to the country’s ongoing conflict and Boko Haram’s impact on the economy. Refugees from Boko Haram in Nigeria who were uprooted or simply looking for safety fled to nearby nations like Cameroon, Ghana, Niger, and Chad. The bulk of people moved to Nigeria’s southern region, where there are more job possibilities, a better economy, and greater security. This exacerbates the socioeconomic gap between the north and the south of Nigeria, where the south is more stable economically due to lower levels of conflict, government support, and the presence of the Niger Delta oil industry.

Economic catastrophe results from unresolved conflict, and this has been a major problem for the economy. Does that have a solution?

Why the new naira note?

The idea of printing fresh naira notes in order to fix Nigeria’s economic issues is comparable to a professional doctor coming up with a remedy for an aviation problem; such a remedy will certainly lead to the week’s worst plane disaster. Do you realize that regular output spurs economic expansion? How can the economy be in a safer mode if the people aren’t producing? Manufacturing creates wealth rather than consumption, which leaves the potential for inflation, unemployment, and criminality.’

“The political climate in Nigeria is seriously slowing down the country’s economic growth”.

In conclusion, a new naira note is not the answer to the economic collapse that has existed from the previous note to the next and now to the present note. Giving individuals money will never induce them to produce; they will always choose to consume. This historical issue is caused by a lack of manufacturing. Manufacturing draws in investors, which could lead to the creation of jobs in the country. Manufacturing, not printing fresh naira banknotes, is the only economic stimulant.

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Nigeria’s Largest Companies and the Missing Future

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In 1917, the largest publicly traded company in the United States was US Steel. Fifty years later, in 1967, the largest recorded was IBM. Over those fifty years, American leading companies had transmuted from building and construction infrastructures to digital infrastructure companies. Before those, food companies were dominant.  Today, the largest US publicly traded companies are knowledge companies like Apple, Google* and Microsoft. 

Simply, the US has moved from fundamental infrastructures  to creating wealth on numbers (yes, data).  I expect in 50 years for the leading companies to become dynamic data companies, firms built on AI, autonomous systems and other constructs , unbounded by pure human capabilities. 

In Nigeria today, we are at the phase of that 1917 and 1967. Food, building, construction and  digital infrastructure firms like MTN, Nestle and  Dangote Cement dominate our stock market. 

Looking deeper, the knowledge era has not arrived at scale in Nigeria. It will come, but it may take a few more decades looking at the unfolding paralysis, since the companies which will anchor that future are not even Nigerian even though they do everything in Nigeria. Yes, they are legally Delaware (USA) companies with most operations in Nigeria. That is Nigeria’s lost economic future, and will be more devastating than the impacts of dried crude oil wells. The nation must  solve that problem urgently.

All data from Nairametrics.

Nigeria’s top ten MVEs had a combined market valuation of N21.1 trillion or an equivalent of $47.5 billion assuming the official exchange rate of (N445/$1).

Among them are 5 stocks worth over one trillion which we term SWOOTs at Nairametrics.

Combined the SWOOTs are worth about N18.1 trillion or $40.7 billion or a whopping 70% of the total market cap of $58.3 billion.

The SWOOTs are Airtel, Dangote Cement, MTN Nigeria, BUA Cement, and BUA Foods.

Companies are often revered when they attain unicorn status, which means they are worth over $1 billion.

Based on our data and using the official exchange rate, all but one of the companies on our list are worth over one billion dollars.

Comment on Feed

Comment 1: Africa tried to compete by indigenous decrees, converting foreign companies into African companies. Sadly, it has never worked. Home grown, ability of leadership to look inwards can salvage the continent.

Comment 2: Nigeria has a lot of potentials as long as you are not seeing it from the spectrum of USA. They are different countries with different species of people, cultures and demands. One million usd in Nigeria can do a lot of magic but it is just a pittance in America. With a little tweak our economy will fly. I don’t think things are as bad as people paint. Look beneath the surface and you will see so many opportunities begging to be exploited. The richest guy in my village deals in wood.

This man has virtually bought the whole forest in the community and has a lot of saw mills. He even owns more than 15 filling stations and numerous trucks. How much does it cost to start a saw mill. 10 to 15 thousand usd can start one. I know people who are into sand dredging and they go inside the interior villages to buy their waterside for peanuts and sell the sand for insane profits. When I started my sand dredging business nobody thought I could do it because it’s dirty work. Everyday I wear my short and slippers and enter the jungle, when you see me on the road you won’t believe that I have seen 1m. That biz can comfortably give you 500 thousand naira daily if you have your own trucks. Next target is buy an excavator soon and buy a burrow pit.

Comment 3: Good analysis sir. It is very impactful and targeted. Research, training & development should attract dedicated funding, and societal reasoning should be conscientized towards this understanding.

United States FBI Issues Fresh Warning About TikTok

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The brand is growing

The FBI on Friday warned that TikTok poses a national security threat to the United States as the app could be exploited for espionage by the Chinese government.

The warning, which was issued by the FBI director Chris Wray, follows several other warnings issued by the US Congress, the military and the White House that TikTok poses a security risk.

Wray said the FBI was concerned that the Chinese had the ability to control the app’s recommendation algorithm, “which allows them to manipulate content, and if they want to, to use it for influence operations.” He also asserted that China could use the app to collect data on its users that could be used for traditional espionage operations, per AP.

“All of these things are in the hands of a government that doesn’t share our values, and that has a mission that’s very much at odds with what’s in the best interests of the United States. That should concern us,” Wray told an audience at the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy.

TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance, has recently been at the center of both political and tech rivalry between the US and China. In 2020, former US President Donald Trump had moved to ban the short-video app through executive order. Though a US court later ruled in favor of the troubled app to stay in business in the US, its battle is far from over.

Last month, Wray raised the same concern during his appearance before congress. The US concern is that the Chinese Communist Party could order TikTok to turn in the data of its American users.

Though the current president Joe Biden has rescinded many of his predecessor’s decisions targeting TikTok and other Chinese apps, the US government has not given up on its probe into the social media company’s activities.

Trump had tried to force TikTok to sell its US operation to an American company, a move aimed at ensuring that the data of users are in safe hands.

In June, a leader of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, Brendan Carr, asked both Apple and Google to remove TikTok from their app stores  over concerns that China is using it to harvest private data of Americans. This follows a report that TikTok’s database is being accessed by employees in China.

TikTok, in a bid to calm the growing concern, had vowed to effect major changes in operation, including partnering with American companies such as Oracle to move its data centers away from China.

“As we recently shared with members of Congress, we are working toward a new system in which access to US user data by anyone outside of USDS will be limited by, and subject to, robust data access protocols with monitoring and oversight mechanisms by Oracle,” TikTok said in June.

Despite this, Washington has continued its scrutiny – issuing warnings to the personnel of government agencies, including the military to quit TikTok.

Wray said that TikTok is currently in talks with the U.S. government agencies over a possible agreement that would resolve American security concerns.

“As Director Wray has previously said, the FBI’s input is being considered as part of our ongoing negotiations with the U.S. Government,” TikTok spokesperson Brooke Oberwetter said in an emailed statement. “While we can’t comment on the specifics of those confidential discussions, we are confident that we are on a path to fully satisfy all reasonable U.S. national security concerns and have already made significant strides toward implementing those solutions.”

TikTok has repeatedly assured that it is not sharing, and won’t share the data of users. In September, Chief Operating Officer Vanessa Pappas denied that Chinese government officials have access to the data of its American users. But China has strict cybersecurity laws that place every company operating in the country under obligation to turn in data upon request by the communist party.

The Manifestos are Ready from Obi, Atiku and Tinubu. Can We Get Blackboards for My Questions?

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Peter Obi and Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed have released their 2023 Presidential Manifesto for Nigeria:  Our Pact with Nigerians: Creating a New Nigeria” [pdf]. It is  a nice document, just like others released by the PDP and the APC candidates, respectively Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu. It is a 72-page document with seven core priorities (see below).

Now, the campaign 2.0 has started. From Obi, Atiku and Tinubu, we have received the vision documents. The next phase is to ask questions on executions of these documents. And that is why we need Debates.

I understand that some of the candidates do not want to debate because debates are not enshrined in the constitution of Nigeria. There is no problem: I am available to come with a blackboard for them to teach. I will give each of these men a chalk and ask them to draw a flowchart on how to fix some issues in the nation. Execution and implementation are important since Nigeria has always been presented with nice manifestos which are usually abandoned after elections, from the local government to the federal levels.

In engineering PhD programs, there is what is called the GBO Exam where you walk into a room with 7 professors waiting to drill you. They can ask you questions on any topic. In most top PhD engineering programs, more than 50% drop at this phase. Why? There is nothing to prepare and that means you must “have it” to scale through. Nigeria, can we get these men to pass through real tests.

Sample Questions

Question 1: Mr. Atiku, draw a flowchart on how to fix a problem where a kid in Abia State needs to score 130 to be admitted into a government school another kid from Yobe needs just 2! Your execution cannot exceed ten years.

Question 2: Mr Obi, opportunities are harder these days in Nigeria partly due to insecurity and inadequate electricity. Share on a flowchart what needs to happen to realize your priority #1 “To secure Nigeria, end banditry and insurgency”  and #5 “Build expansive and world-class infrastructure for efficient power supply”. Your flowchart should include how youth unemployment will be fixed. Also indicate how you plan to overcome previous failures on these domains.

Question 3: Mr. Tinubu, rural Nigeria has been cut-off from urban Nigeria with the collapse of NIPOST and decent road networks. Draw a flowchart how we can boost the economy of rural Nigeria and connect it to the urban by revitalizing the postal system and supply chain. Sir: your flowchart should include how to fix NIPOST to work again in 3 years.

Obi 7 priorities:

  1. To secure Nigeria, end banditry and insurgency, and unite our dear nation, to manage our diversity such that no one is left behind.
  2. Shift emphasis from consumption to production by running a production-centered economy that is driven by an agrarian revolution and export-oriented industrialization.
  3. Restructure the polity through effective legal and institutional reforms to entrench the rule of law, aggressively fight corruption, reduce cost of governance, and establish an honest and efficient
    civil service.
  4. Leapfrog Nigeria into the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), through the application of scientific and technological innovations to create a digital economy.
  5. Build expansive and world-class infrastructure for efficient power supply, rail, road and air transportation, and pipeline network, through integrated public-private partnerships, and entrepreneurial public sector governance.
  6. Enhance the human capital of Nigerian youths for productivity and global competitiveness through investment in world-class scholarship and research, quality healthcare, and entrepreneurship education.
  7. Conduct an afro-centric diplomacy that protects the rights of Nigerian citizens abroad and advances the economic interests of Nigerians and Nigerian businesses in a changing world.

People, let us have these flowchart debates on NTA, AriseTV, etc LIVE. It will be fun. I do not care what is written in manifestos; I want to interrogate the aspirants as that is the living manifesto. How many blackboards do we order in case the one I have is not enough to contain all their answers?

Comment on Feed

Comment: Prof, Even the US has not reached this level of debate ? for it’s presidential candidates. May the free volition of the majority prevail!

My Response: That is actually my goal. US politics is matured. A Republican candidate has an agenda he will follow. The same for democrats. But in Nigeria, we have no party, we have just humans. Obi was Atiku’s running mate just 4 years ago. Tinubu battled Atiku in 2015 with Buhari. In other words, there is no party in Nigeria, what we have is a club. With that, you need to focus on the human element and ignore the party since all the parties in Nigeria are the same (no core ideological differences).

Ankr Protocol Smart Contract Hacked; Suffers $5M Loss

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On the 2nd of December, 2022, the Ankr Protocols suffered from an exploit. The wallet of the Ankr contract deployer got compromised, which was the root cause of the attack.

The malicious contract allowed unlimited minting of tokens, which was the main cause of the attack. The attacker then minted 10 trillion tokens to his address by calling 0x3b3a5522 the function of his malicious contract.

More than $5 million was stolen by hackers. The attacker quickly moved assets to Tornado Cash and bridged tokens to other chains like Ethereum and Polygon.

The Ankr liquid staking service provides integrators and stakers a flexible way to stake and earn from blockchains. Typically, staking involves locking up your tokens for some time, during which they can’t be used.

With liquid staking, Crypto asset holders can stake their assets on Ankr and receive liquid staking tokens to access numerous DeFi opportunities.

The deployer’s wallet’s private key was hacked, which led the attacker to gain full control of the wallet and upgrade contract implementation with his malicious contract.

On-Chain Details:

The attacker compromised the deployer’s wallet and created a new implementation contract.

Then the attacker replaced the $aBNBc contract’s implementation by upgrading the implementation contract.

Next, he called the 0x3b3a5522 function and minted 10 trillion aBNB tokens into his wallet.

After minting tokens, the attacker sent 1.125 BNB from the deployer’s compromised wallet to his wallet which was used as gas fees for further transactions.

Then, the attacker started swapping tokens and transferring amounts to tornado cash and other bridges like Ethereum and Polygon.

The Ankr Team announced the hack on Twitter and immediately halted trading on exchanges. Additionally, Binance froze stolen cryptocurrency worth $3 million.