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As Russia Invades Ukraine, Who Will Evacuate Nigerians?

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As Russia bares its power loose on Ukraine through land, air and sea – an unprecedented full military operation that has riled the whole world up, ripping through covid economic recovery and shooting oil prices up, every country has inadvertently got into a race to evacuate its citizens.

Many countries began issuing the ‘leave Ukraine immediately’ warning to their citizens at the early sign that war is inevitable. However, as warning statements from foreign affairs departments form a flurry of worry, the Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement, urging Nigerians in Ukraine to relax.

Foreign Affairs minister Geoffrey Onyeama said on NTA Thursday afternoon: “The advice we were getting was that Nigerians in Ukraine should not panic. The embassy was in touch with them, telling them to take reasonable precautions, which has been ongoing for a while.” The Russian government itself was saying they will not invade, he added.

Ukraine is both a business and education hub, having thousands of international students, including Nigerians. Morocco, Nigeria, and Egypt make up the list of top 10 countries for international students in Ukraine, accounting for 8,000, 4,000 and 3,500 students respectively. The three African countries made up nearly 20% of all foreign students in Ukraine as of 2020, according to Ukraine’s ministry of education and science.

Besides this number of Nigerian students in Ukraine, there are thousands of others who have different business in the Eastern European country – all needed to be evacuated while there is still a chance.

A dramatic turn of events came with Russian president Vladimir Putin recognizing the independence of Ukraine’s separatist regions, Donetsk and Luhansk. As the war escalates, the chance of evacuation gets slimmer. Ukraine has shut its airspace to commercial airlines and the government has ordered all men from 18 to years not to leave the country.

In a change of tone, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday assured Nigerians in Ukraine and their loved ones that as soon as the airports in the country are opened, the federal government would assist in facilitating the evacuation of Nigerians who are willing to leave. It added that the “Nigerian Mission has confirmed that military action by the Russians has been confined to military installations.”

However, the increasing reports of civilian casualties in Ukraine has not only debunked the statement of the Ministry, it has also fueled concern for the safety of everyone in the country.

Nigerians in Ukraine, who have been following the instruction from the Mission, said they’re all packed and waiting for the next instruction.

“Internet has gone down. Some services are not working. Refugees camp hasn’t been set up yet, but we’re waiting for a signal to move,” a Nigerian wrote on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/eldrenna/status/1496708929254010884?t=e-oiXyUvNsiuqmgvi14UEQ&s=19

The latest advisory from the Nigerian Embassy in Ukraine urges “Nigerian nationals resident in Ukraine to remain calm, but be very vigilant and be responsible for their personal security and safety.”

“The embassy wishes to add that should any Nigerian nationals consider the situation as emotionally disturbing, such nationals may wish to temporarily relocate to anywhere considered safe by private arrangements. They should, however, ensure that they do all the needful to validate all their resident documents for ease of return to the country when desired,” it said.

Nearly 200,000 Russian troops have been let loose into Ukraine, eliminating the hope that Putin will withdraw them any time soon, and narrowing the window of evacuation as Ukrainians fight back.

On Thursday, Nigerian House of Representatives offered to evacuate Nigerians, according to a post made on its Twitter account. The House said it is counting on Allen Onyema, CEO of Air Peace airline, who evacuated Nigerians in South Africa during the xenophobic attacks, to volunteer some planes for Nigerians in Ukraine.

The House said its Committee Chairman on Foreign Affairs will jet out to Ukraine, Friday. It is hoped that the trip will open a way out for Nigerians.

As Russia invades Ukraine – Major impacts for Web hosting, DeFi, and all aspects of Tera and Metaverse global economies

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Thirty-six hours ago, I made a post focusing on the speech of  Kenya’s Ambassador to UN Martin Kimani. In it I made a somewhat delicate plea to Vladamir Putin. Just a small voice along with a lot of louder and stronger voices that were out there. None have been heeded. My thoughts are with the Ukrainian people, and even too, many of the Russian youngsters who are forced to shoulder a war they don’t want.

This post is now about business impacts, some of which are for Nigeria.

In statement by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen:

‘we will target strategic sectors of the Russian economy by blocking their access to technologies and markets … weaken Russia’s economic base … freeze Russian assets … aligned with … the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada,…Japan and Australia.’

Von der Leyen also announced readiness to create reverse flow of gas from EU into Ukraine to cushion the effects of its uncoupling of energy links with Russia.

This is what precipitated the price of Brent Crude jumping overnight to its highest point since 2014.

While this seems good news for Nigeria and other oil producing African countries, it is important to understand that this is a ‘sentiment’ reaction from the market.

‘Sentiment’ reactions anticipate something that seems likely, but has not yet happened. There are simply two types of sentiment – a perception of future supply, or a perception of future demand. If the sentiment is proven accurate then the price should stay stable (the sentiment has already priced in the rise).

On the other hand if the sentiment fails to translate, or some other actors bring something to the table (such as ME countries dumping a load of product into the market to cool it), then the price will recede again.

High oil prices are also not universally good news for Nigeria. As per the famous discussion with Bill Gates and Mo Ibrahim, Aliko Dangote pointed out that while O&G sector is Nigeria’s main source of foreign currency, and where FGN makes majority of its income from, it is only 8.8% of the Nigerian Economy.

Since the sectors the masses are ‘feeding’ from comprise 91.2% not O&G, then should oil prices go up, but FGN remove the subsidy on the downstream products, while the Federal system enjoys bigger budgets, further hyper-inflation would ensue plunging the masses further into poverty.

Then again, the issue in Europe relates to natural gas. Crude oil is not the same thing. Though there is also such an issue as ‘sentiment transference’ When this happens, it is the products/services that most resemble the primary target of the sentiment get impacted first.

Bitcoin fell 8% to a one-month low and other cryptocurrencies crash, wiping $150B in the crypto market in the last 24 hours (Arjun Kharpal/CNBC)

Cryptocurrencies are already banned in 10 Countries… Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Nepal, Nigeria, Qatar, Tunisia and China

Prior to this conflict Russia seemed leaning towards outrightly banning crypto (source Jeff Benson Jan 20, 2022 for decrypt.co), on LinkedIn, Philip Weights reports Vladamir Putin doing a ‘U turn’ on this in a matter of weeks.

The market ‘sentiment’ here would be since the main global centres of the world are going to shut down ‘traditional’ liquid asset movement vehicles for Russia, Russia will resort to using crypto to transact. But the same actors shutting down Russia will be prepared for that also, and so a large global consensus of multiple sovereign states will shut down crypto, not because of any dislike for crypto specifically, but simply because it is a transaction medium vulnerable to being used by Russia to circumvent the other restrictions imposed.

There are many raw materials and agricultural products in which Ukraine is in the top three suppliers in the world.

On the equity front, a week ago, Kiera Rawlings (Reuters) said: ‘Worries over a potential Russian invasion into Ukraine could fuel stock weakness over the short-term, but most U.S. market fallout related to geopolitics is likely to be short-lived, if history is any guide.’

One of my support services this morning timed out . I know for certain the support team are based in Ukraine.

The medium term factor that might most affect Nigeria may be access to various customer and technical remote services.

There are a few countries in the world that have a strong foothold in remote telephone, online and OTT support services. They offer round-the-clock support that range from customer services to billing enquiries, basic sales enquiries, and technical support. The clients they represent range across conventional banking, telecoms, electricity and utility providers, crypto exchanges, web hosting companies, DeFi providers, and a wide range of other services.

The strongest geos for these services are India, The Philippines, and…

UKRAINE

Another support service provided from Ukraine is down. This one usually answers live queries within 1 minute.

The Ukrainian operators are especially competent at technical proficiency.

Ukraine citizens have centuries of technological development excellence and their engineers and scientists have been pivotal to the former Soviet Union in the space and nuclear races with the US of bygone times.

There was an old saying: ‘If you want technological intelligence from the Soviet Union, you go to Kiev, because that is where Moscow keeps its brain!’

As cyber-attacks from Russia intensify, then any global actors that have Ukrainian nodes on their global datacentre networks and cloud solutions are especially open to breach.

BANK OF ENGLAND seems to think Digital Currency can have its use restricted through ‘programming’, but do they mean all Digital Currency or just CBDC?

But as conscription begins, and support officers swap their headsets for guns in the field, the true impact on service dependency will be unknown.

Again, my thoughts are with Ukraine.

Please visit www.johnmckeown.eu

All URLs accessed 24/02/2022

www.linkedin.com/posts/sarang-pokhare-iim-calcutta-digital-marketing-expert_ukraine-cyberattacks-all-you-need-to-know-activity-6902557395789205504-WBiT

www.linkedin.com/posts/european-commission_russias-aggression-against-ukraine-press-activity-6902542894180507648-NLtZ

ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_22_1322

decrypt.co/90886/bank-russia-wants-bitcoin-ban-how-other-countries

www.linkedin.com/posts/philipweights_vladimir-putin-rejects-ban-on-crypto-mining-activity-6894177763025125376-FW6z

www.reuters.com/markets/europe/markets-churn-over-russia-ukraine-conflict-history-shows-fleeting-impact-2022-02-14/

johnmckeown.tiny.us/ukraineafrica-mypush

johnmckeown.tiny.us/decadepredictions-mypush

X-raying Financial Institutions And e-Frauds In Nigeria

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SEC Nigeria

While tech experts are discussing the financial institutions, they would be more concerned about how much and far the key players in the sector have fared in respect of tech-driven measures.

As some stakeholders would dispute the ‘goodness’ and remarkable activity of the financial institutions, others would ceaselessly defend the ‘unavoidable impact’ of the sector even with last drop of their blood.

Financial institutions, the bank particularly, have greatly enabled mankind to jettison the archaic pattern of saving money and other valuables, thereby averting a whole lot of troubles usually characterized by the said method.

The bank as a sector has in recent times obviously contributed to countless economic growth recorded by both individuals and entities, particularly a given country or bloc as might be the case.

Regarding savings, the bank creates an unquantifiable opportunity for the human race, businessmen and traders in particular, to on a daily basis safe-keep their monies and assets towards experiencing a better ease of doing business or trading.

The bank has thus far arguably saved people from a lot of tensions, because it has created and maintained an avenue where anyone, regardless of status, can easily deposit his/her money without exercising any element of fear concerning safety.

With the introduction of the ongoing Consolidation Policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as ably initiated during the reign of Prof. Charles Soludo, it is now certain that any amount of money/asset kept, or deposit made, in any commercial bank domiciled within the country is certainly safe.

The reliability of commercial banks are presently well guaranteed, and such can at any time be proven by any financial or policy analyst. This is the sole reason people from all walks of life can be seen currently trooping into banks to make deposits of valuables.

And with the existence of the newly introduced Cashless Policy by the apex bank, people can now make transactions from the comfort of their respective bedrooms, with ease.

The cashless policy, with the aid of tech-driven measures, has really assisted the banking sector in curtailing several inconveniences and stresses faced by their personnel as well as the clients.

The aforementioned policy has equally hitherto helped the sector to alleviate all sorts of physical social ills usually experienced by the banking industry, such but not limited to as armed robbery, to a reasonable extent.

Before now, with much cash flow in circulation, armed robbers had greater opportunity to physically invade people’s privacies, be it offices, shops, residences, or on the roads, thereby forcefully making away with their hard-earned money.

On the other hand, the advent of the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) mechanism in the banking sector has constituted tremendous unbearable non-physical ills popularly known as electronic frauds (e-frauds). These crimes aren’t physically perpetrated like in the case of armed robbery.

The e-fraud, as the name implies, pertains to all kinds of ills emanating from the use of electronic gadgets or equipment to include computers and cell phones, among others.

ICT remains the major aid of the ongoing modern system of banking. It’s worthy of note that the said mode of technology cannot be possible without the use of electronic devices and mechanisms such as computers and the internet, as well as networking.

This electronic methodology, since inception in the banking sector, has profusely been characterized by countless frauds. It’s worth noting that the electronic ills can only be possible via a manipulation called hacking.

It’s only when one’s electronic belonging – including personal and bank accounts – is hacked, that the criminal would have the opportunity to perpetrate any type of intended crime that could cost the unsuspecting person a fortune. We must come into terms that anybody can fall victim of this dastardly act.

So, we can at this point wholly comprehend that though the advent and sustenance of the ICT in the banking sector has majorly assisted in solving a whole lot of plights and crises, it has made millions of people victims.

In various fora and platforms, I’ve extensively analyzed several issues and ills pertaining to electronic (internet) hacking. In my candid words (analyses), I’ve taken time to advise that, for us to enjoy or appreciate the use of electronics, we must be well and aptly prepared to make, introduce and maintain sound policies, either as separate individuals or entities.

As a group of people called Nigeria, the corporate body that’s in charge of the country’s banking system in its entirety must at this digital age be more concerned on how to strategize with a view to ensuring that the existence of tech-driven measures doesn’t end up causing more harm than good to the entire system.

The above can only be duly achieved by introducing and maintaining a wholesome and reliable policy-making unit in the institution. Hence, the CBN mustn’t relent in making this happen within its jurisdiction.

As these merchants try to make profit in the lucrative banking business while helping the public safeguard their fortunes or treasures, they as an institution must equally create corporate guidelines that would help their clients avert various troubles liable to befall them.

On corporate policy, banks must be well tutored on the compelling need to create more secured online Apps or softwares by engaging reputable IT experts. Similarly, a standard ICT unit ought to be maintained in their respective branches.

On individual policy, the users of the computer Apps must on the other hand be thoroughly sensitized on how best to protect their online transaction identities and details at all times. This measure must equally involve respected and reliable professionals.

The bitter fact remains that, as sophisticated technologies evolve, the criminally-minded persons or entities in the system would strive to take advantage of the development at the expense of the unsuspecting users.

This is the reason corporate bodies and individuals are regularly advised to endeavour to be wiser than the criminals just as mankind is being advised by the Holy writ to be smarter than the devil.

Hence, the educational institutions, on their part, must invariably be ready to inculcate the required expertise into the ICT learners or trainees undergoing various trainings within their jurisdictions.

Though Nigerians have left where they used to be, there’s still an enormous distance to cover in a bid to arrive at the needed point.

Flutterwave, now worth 4.4x of Jumia; Jumia’s Path to Success Is B2B Playbook with JumiaPay

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Jumia has sparks but the marginal cost paralysis continues to affect the business. It is largely doing most things right now, but weaning itself of that high cost of sales and service remains the challenge which it must overcome. From TechCrunch.

Gross merchandise volume (GMV) at Jumia in the fourth quarter grew 20% year-over-year to $330 million, while revenue grew to $62.0 million, up 26% over the same time frame. Quarterly active users and orders rose 29% and 40% to 3.8 million and 11.3 million year-over-year, respectively.

The metrics improved thanks to Jumia’s Q2 2021 decision to push frequent purchases of fast-moving consumer goods (FCMGs) rather than larger-ticket electronics and appliances, and increased in sales and marketing spend.

Sales and advertising expenses at Jumia grew 159% year-over-year in the final quarter of 2021, a significant slowdown from the previous quarter, which posted a staggering 228% expansion in the expense category.

Yes, you read it well: “Sales and advertising expenses at Jumia grew 159% year-over-year in the final quarter of 2021, a significant slowdown from the previous quarter, which posted a staggering 228% expansion in the expense category.” When your cost of sales is growing in multiple faster than revenue, you have a real issue in that playbook.

Because of that, Jumia lost money in the quarter: “Turning to the bottom line, Jumia’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) loss was $70 million in Q4 2021. That’s a 107% year-over-year increase.” The impact is that the share price continues to struggle.

From the data which keeps coming out, quarter after quarter,  it does seem that focusing on B2B in the retail place may be the holy grail because of the marginal cost issue in Africa. Companies like Alerzo, TradeDepot, TradeLenda, and Farm365 which focus on B2B appear poised to achieve faster profitability than B2B counterparts.

If Jumia pivots to B2B retail and embed JumiaPay on top of it, it will rise. It has the largest merchant community, biggest pocket and can push this business forward. That Flutterwave is now worth 4.4x of Jumia shows Jumia needs a new playbook.

Comment on LinkedIn Feed

Comment : This is a case of being realistic in execution: how are you doing compared to other companies. They need a new playbook like you rightly suggested Ndubuisi Ekekwe with the numerous substitutes, low switching costs, low suppliers power, zero to no entry barrier basically makes their business a commodity one where the only differentiation is price.

I concur, they need to transition into the B2B space; Idumota is a signal that there is value in the B2B retail space. From my personal research there is also a problem businesses at Idumota face that would make this a game changer for Jumia.

How Fintech Boom In Africa Has Reshaped Payments And International Money Transfer

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With the high influx of fintech companies in Africa, the region has become a global leader when it comes to mobile/online payments. According to GSMA, more than 45% of global mobile accounts belong to sub-Saharan Africa, taking the continent’s total to 481 million registered accounts. This was a region that traditionally suffered from limited access to formal financial services. The digital industry in Africa has experienced consistent growth since 2016 in terms of both the number of transactions and financing volume.

The African region now has more people who are using their mobile phones to make payments. One beautiful thing about these fintechs companies is that the boom has helped solve the issue that people in Africa often face when it comes to international payments. Mobile money now drives instant and secure payments in international remittance, healthcare, and salaries inclusive.

Years ago some countries in the African region could not receive money through PayPal, with Nigeria inclusive. This indeed posed a serious challenge in receiving funds internationally because Paypal was often the preferred choice of payment by those in Europe.

Traditionally, Africa’s e-commerce ecosystem has lacked suitable payment solutions to meet the demand for seamless transactions worldwide, which constrained the regions’ contributions to the global digital economy. Not too long, in 2021 one of Nigeria’s and Africa’s biggest Fintech companies, Flutterwave helped in solving this issue.

Flutterwave collaborated with global payment leader Paypal to enable Paypal customers globally to pay African merchants in the continent through the Flutterwave platform. This collaboration was indeed a huge sigh of relief for African merchants most especially freelancers as they could easily receive funds for their services rendered.

I am not surprised that Flutterwave has surpassed $3 billion in valuation and continued to take in billions because their collaboration with Paypal eliminated significant barriers that had previously hindered African consumers and businesses from the untapped potential of cross-border commerce.

Also, start-ups in the remittance space such as Paga, Sure remit, warn, etc have made it possible for African residents to receive money from overseas with ease. Today in Africa, digital transactions now make up the majority of money flows. They are gradually opting out of cash as the primary mode of payment.

The continent has indeed become a hotbed of financial technology and innovation. According to a report, the African continent now has over 473 active Fintechs. The fintechs raised about $350 million during the first quarter of 2020. The funding is majorly generated for projects like online banking, consumer credit checks, and innovative financial products and services. There are a whole lot of Fintechs doing exceptionally well, but I will just mention a few of them;

  • Opay; which is valued at $2billion.
  • Flutterwave; with the valuation of the company now standing at $3billion.
  • Chipper Cash; which is valued at over $2billion.
  • Timebank; A South African fintech that currently holds R2.8 billion in deposit balances.
  • Fawry; An Egyptian fintech that is currently worth $2billion.

Indeed there are many more Fintechs in Africa doing remarkably well and still, many more are emerging. This fintech boom has indeed helped reshape payments and international money transfers in the region. It might interest you to know that Africa is regarded as the world’s second-fastest-growing and profitable payments and banking market after Latin America, according to McKinsey’s study, and this means that the Fintech sector in the continent will continue to attract investors tapping into the increasing growth opportunities.