Learn how to build your own mini-ChatGPT directly on your computer or laptop. In the following month, in another program, we will go further, showing you how to design AI systems that solve real market frictions, while learning Python with the assistance of AI.
Register for Tekedia AI Technical Lab here https://school.tekedia.com/course/ailab/ . We begin on Saturday, March 14, 2026.
Alphabet Inc. has structured a new three-year compensation package for CEO Sundar Pichai that could be worth up to $692 million, according to a recent SEC filing first reported by the Financial Times.
The package, one of the largest ever for a sitting U.S. public-company CEO, ties the majority of its value to performance-based equity incentives, including specific milestones linked to Google’s autonomous-driving unit Waymo and drone-delivery subsidiary Wing. The structure reflects Alphabet’s continued emphasis on long-term value creation in AI, autonomous mobility, and logistics.
While base salary and annual bonuses remain relatively modest compared to the headline figure, the bulk of the potential payout comes from performance stock units (PSUs) and restricted stock units (RSUs) that vest only if Waymo achieves aggressive commercialization targets (such as expanded robotaxi fleets in multiple cities and meaningful revenue contribution) and Wing scales drone delivery to new geographies and higher volume thresholds.
Analysts view the package as both ambitious and aligned with Alphabet’s strategic priorities. Waymo — already operating commercial robotaxi services in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin — is targeting profitability and broader geographic expansion in 2026–2028, while Wing is scaling urban and suburban delivery in the U.S., Australia, and select international markets. Success in these areas could significantly boost Alphabet’s non-advertising revenue streams, which remain a small but fast-growing portion of the company’s overall business.
Despite the eye-catching headline number, Pichai has historically received far less public fascination than Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, currently ranked as the world’s second- and fourth-richest individuals, respectively (per Bloomberg Billionaires Index as of early March 2026). While Pichai remains quietly rooted in Los Altos, California — with no major public real-estate transactions reported in recent years — Page and Brin have drawn attention for rapidly accumulating high-end properties in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood.
Page reportedly spent more than $173 million on two adjacent mansions in Coconut Grove in late 2025, while Brin was linked to a $51 million megamansion purchase roughly 14 miles away, on top of two earlier acquisitions totaling $92 million. The moves have been widely interpreted as a hedge against California’s proposed Billionaire Tax Act — a ballot initiative that would impose a one-time 5% levy on net worth exceeding $1 billion for the state’s roughly 200 billionaires.
The measure, if approved by voters in November 2026, would generate an estimated $50–$80 billion for state coffers over several years, with proceeds earmarked for housing, education, and climate initiatives. Pichai, a billionaire in his own right, has benefited enormously from Alphabet’s nearly sevenfold market-cap growth since he assumed the CEO role in 2015.
Bloomberg calculations estimate that Pichai and his wife, Anjali, currently hold Alphabet shares worth nearly $500 million, with an additional ~$650 million in stock sales executed through last summer. Unlike the founders, Pichai has maintained a relatively low public profile on personal finances and real estate, with no significant property acquisitions reported in recent years.
The contrast underscores a generational and stylistic divide: Page and Brin — who stepped back from day-to-day management in 2019 but retain massive voting control through Class B shares — have pursued high-profile diversification of their wealth, including real-estate moves and investments in longevity research, climate technology, and private aviation. Pichai, by contrast, has focused almost exclusively on Alphabet’s operational leadership and public advocacy for AI safety and responsible development.
The new pay package, subject to shareholder approval at Alphabet’s 2026 annual meeting, underlines investor and board confidence in Pichai’s ability to navigate the company through the AI era while maintaining regulatory and reputational discipline. It also signals that Alphabet remains committed to tying executive rewards to concrete progress in its highest-conviction moonshots: autonomous mobility (Waymo) and logistics innovation (Wing).
As Alphabet prepares for its next earnings report and continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, the Pichai package will likely be viewed through the lens of execution: whether Waymo can scale profitably beyond pilot cities and whether Wing can achieve meaningful commercial volume. Success in these areas could justify the headline compensation figure and further cement Pichai’s legacy as the steward of Google’s post-search transformation.
However, while Page and Brin quietly reposition personal assets amid California tax debates, Pichai remains focused on Alphabet’s core mission — a contrast that has drawn relatively little public commentary but speaks volumes about the differing roles each plays in one of the world’s most valuable companies.
The U.S. dollar strengthened sharply on Monday as surging oil prices and fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, underscoring growing anxiety about the potential impact of energy disruptions on global inflation and economic growth.
Currency markets moved quickly as traders reassessed geopolitical risk. The euro fell about 0.5% against the dollar to $1.1559 after touching a three-and-a-half-month low earlier in the session, while the British pound declined roughly 0.6% to $1.3338. Commodity-linked currencies also weakened, with the Australian dollar slipping about 0.25% and the Swiss franc losing around 0.4% against the U.S. currency.
Analysts say the dollar’s rally reflects its traditional role as a global refuge during periods of uncertainty, particularly when geopolitical shocks threaten energy supplies.
“The dollar is clearly benefitting as being relatively insulated from a lot of these Middle East risks and also picking up its usual haven trade,” said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe.
The move into the dollar coincided with broad weakness across financial markets. Stocks, government bonds, and precious metals all declined as investors shifted toward cash positions, concerned that soaring oil prices could reignite inflation and weigh on economic activity worldwide.
Michael Every, senior global strategist at Rabobank, warned that prolonged disruption could trigger cascading economic effects.
“The longer this goes on, the more exponential the damage becomes in a domino effect,” he said. “If we are still in the same position this time next week, things could be quite terrifying.”
Oil markets have been at the center of the turmoil. Brent crude initially surged more than 25% during trading before paring gains to about $104.60 per barrel, still up roughly 13% on the day. Prices briefly retreated in Asian trading after the Financial Times reported that Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers may discuss a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves through the International Energy Agency.
Such a move would echo past crisis responses aimed at stabilizing supply shocks, though analysts say its effectiveness would depend on the scale and duration of the disruption.
The conflict has already begun to disrupt global energy flows. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and natural gas supply has been affected after Iran targeted vessels in the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic chokepoint through which a significant share of global energy exports pass — and struck regional energy infrastructure.
Energy officials warn that the situation could worsen. Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times that Gulf producers may shut down exports within weeks if the conflict escalates, a scenario that could push oil prices as high as $150 per barrel.
Currency traders are closely monitoring which economies would bear the heaviest impact. Asia is widely seen as particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil and liquefied natural gas imports, while the euro zone and the United Kingdom also remain exposed to energy price volatility.
Deepali Bhargava, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING, said the duration of elevated oil prices will determine the scale of the economic fallout.
“The real question is how high and how long prices stay elevated, because that’s what will ultimately determine the economic fallout,” she said. “A prolonged conflict, coupled with continued currency weakness, would feed more directly into inflation pressures across the region.”
The dollar also strengthened against the Japanese yen, rising about 0.37% to around 158.41. The move kept the currency close to the psychologically important 159 level, highlighting sustained upward pressure as investors reposition portfolios.
Geopolitical developments added another layer of uncertainty. Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei as successor to his father as supreme leader, signaling that hard-line leadership remains firmly in place in Tehran as the conflict enters its second week.
The crisis is also reshaping expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Weak U.S. employment data released on Friday had briefly boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than expected. However, the sharp rise in oil prices has complicated that outlook.
Traders are now pricing roughly 35 basis points of Federal Reserve easing by the end of the year, down from more than 55 basis points in late February.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said policymakers may delay any near-term decisions while they assess the economic consequences of the energy shock.
“Ultimately, the dynamic will likely delay any move from the Fed because policymakers will want time to review the impacts of any oil shock and how it influences the data,” he said.
For global markets, the key risk remains the potential for energy supply disruptions to deepen. If oil prices remain elevated or climb further, economists warn the shock could slow global growth while reigniting inflation — a combination that would complicate policy responses from central banks worldwide.
The S&P 500 often tracked via $SPY has posted consecutive closes below its 100-day moving average for the first time in approximately 10 months.
This development was highlighted by sources like Barchart around early March 2026, noting consecutive closes below the 100-day MA — the first such occurrence since May (likely May 2025, making it about 10 months prior to March 2026). Some reports phrased it as the index closing below the 100-day MA in 2 of the last 3 trading days for the first time since May, or explicitly consecutive closes below it since then.
This technical breach comes amid a broader pullback in early 2026: The S&P 500 hit a recent low around March 6, 2026, closing at 6,740.02 down ~1.33% that day, after declines influenced by factors like geopolitical tensions and market volatility.
The index has been below its 50-day moving average since late February 2026 but remains above its longer-term 200-day MA in many snapshots. Recent closes show a downtrend: e.g., March 6 at 6,740; March 5 at 6,830; March 4 at 6,869; reflecting pressure after erasing some yearly gains and dropping to multi-month lows.
Technically, closes below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) often signal a shift in short- to medium-term momentum, potentially indicating weaker bullish control and increased risk of further downside or at least a deeper correction until the index reclaims it.
Traders watch this as a key level — failure to recover quickly can lead to more selling, while a bounce might attract dip-buyers. This aligns with the market’s recent regime shift from “buy the dip” toward caution, though it’s not yet a confirmed bear market signal. Markets remain volatile, so this could be short-lived or extend depending on upcoming data and global events.
The 200-day moving average is one of the most widely followed technical indicators in stock market analysis, particularly for major indices like the S&P 500. It represents the average closing price of the asset over the past 200 trading days roughly 9–10 calendar months, excluding weekends and holidays.
Shorter moving averages react quickly to recent price action and help spot intermediate trends or momentum shifts. The 200-day MA, by contrast, smooths out short-term noise and volatility to reveal the broader, primary market trend. It acts as a “big picture” gauge of whether the market is in a sustained uptrend (bullish regime) or downtrend (bearish regime).
When the price trades above the 200-day MA, it generally indicates a long-term uptrend (bull market conditions). This is considered bullish, and many investors/traders prefer to stay invested or buy dips in this zone. When the price trades below the 200-day MA, it signals a long-term downtrend (bear market or correction phase).
This is viewed as bearish, often prompting caution, reduced exposure, or defensive positioning. A famous trader quote captures this: “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” In uptrends, the 200-day MA frequently acts as support — prices tend to bounce off it during pullbacks (a level where buyers step in).
In downtrends, it acts as resistance — rallies often stall or reverse near it (a level where sellers dominate). Historically, staying invested only when the S&P 500 is above its 200-day MA has captured most of the long-term gains while avoiding major drawdowns (e.g., during recessions or bear markets).
Strategies that buy when price crosses above it and sell/exit when it crosses below have reduced risk compared to buy-and-hold in volatile periods, though they may lag in strong, uninterrupted bull runs. The S&P 500 recently experienced pressure, with consecutive closes below its 100-day MA (a shorter-term signal of weakening momentum).
However, it remains above its 200-day MA in recent data: This suggests the broader long-term uptrend is still intact, despite the short/medium-term pullback; below the 50-day MA since late February and recent lows marking the weakest closes of 2026 so far. Only about 55–57% of S&P 500 constituents were trading above their own 200-day MAs recently, indicating somewhat subdued breadth compared to peak bull phases.
A decisive close below the 200-day MA would be a more serious warning potentially shifting to bearish territory, while reclaiming lost ground above shorter MAs could stabilize sentiment. Many view the 200-day level as a key “line in the sand” for determining if the current dip is corrective (bullish resumption likely) or the early stages of something more prolonged.
The 200-day MA isn’t a perfect predictor — no indicator is — but its simplicity, historical track record, and widespread use among institutions make it a cornerstone for assessing overall market health and guiding risk management.
Polymarket, the leading decentralized prediction market platform, is reportedly in early-stage discussions with investors about a potential fundraising round that could value the company at approximately $20 billion.
This target comes from recent reports, primarily from The Wall Street Journal indicating that both Polymarket and its rival Kalshi are exploring capital raises at roughly this level—nearly double their most recent valuations from late 2025. Polymarket’s prior valuation was around $9 billion (as of October 2025, following a major strategic investment/commitment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, up to $2 billion).
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated competitor, was last valued at about $11 billion after a $1 billion raise in December 2025. These talks remain preliminary and may not result in completed deals at the targeted valuation or any deal at all.
The surge reflects booming interest in prediction markets, driven by high trading volumes on events like elections, geopolitics, and more—plus broader investor enthusiasm for the sector’s growth potential as it blends gambling, forecasting, and financial primitives. This positions Polymarket as one of the fastest-rising fintech/crypto-adjacent startups, with its valuation trajectory exploding from unicorn status in early 2025 to these nine-figure-plus levels amid regulatory shifts and mainstream adoption.
For context, Polymarket itself hosts markets on company valuations including its competitors and others in AI and tech underscoring the meta irony here. Jumping from ~$9B to a $20B target in months underscores hyper-adoption. Polymarket has captured massive volumes in politics, geopolitics, and crypto events, often outpacing traditional forecasting.
A successful round would cement it as a crypto-adjacent fintech leader, potentially enabling aggressive expansion; planned US-regulated features or new asset classes like binary options on indices. Unlike Kalshi which generates revenue via fees and reportedly hit ~$1–1.5B annualized run rate, Polymarket has operated with zero/low fees to prioritize market share.
The $20B target heavily prices in future monetization—possibly via a native token launch, fee introduction, or data licensing. This “deferral” strategy bets on network effects and crypto economics, but skeptics note it’s more “vibes and token promise” than proven cash flow.
It positions Polymarket as a peer to Kalshi in valuation despite different models. Success could attract more institutional interest, but failure might highlight risks in unregulated vs. regulated paths. These platforms aggregate crowd wisdom into real-time probabilities better than polls/experts in many cases.
A $20B valuation for either would rival major sports betting firms and exceed many traditional casino operators or even DraftKings. It signals investors view prediction markets as a transformative asset class—blending forecasting, gambling, and financial primitives—for events from elections to geopolitics and macro indicators.
High-profile controversial markets have drawn congressional attention and insider-trading accusations. While CFTC clarity helped Kalshi scale, Polymarket’s decentralized nature faces ongoing risks. A successful raise could fund lobbying/compliance efforts, but restrictions might cap growth or force product changes.
Doubling valuations amid booming volumes reflects hype around “collective intelligence” tools. It could draw more VC/crypto capital into the space, spurring competition and innovation; new features, integrations with AI or traditional finance. However, lofty multiples invite bubble concerns if growth slows.
Talks are early—no certainty of closing at $20B (or closing at all). High valuations assume continued explosive adoption, but external shocks (regulation, market downturns, or scandals) could derail it. Polymarket’s zero-revenue model makes its target more speculative than Kalshi’s fee-driven one.
Overall, this reflects prediction markets evolving from niche crypto experiments to serious financial infrastructure. If Polymarket hits $20B, it would mark one of the fastest valuation ramps in fintech/crypto history, accelerating mainstream integration while highlighting tensions between innovation, regulation, and profitability.