The tension between Russia and Ukraine is escalating rapidly as talks to restore peace have repeatedly failed since the conflict started to build up months ago. Russian president Vladimir Putin is not backing down on his plan to invade Ukraine, a move he is risking heavy Western sanctions and probably military action on.

Russian troops have been stationed on the Ukraine border for months, amplifying concern that the conflict will turn to a full scale war very soon. The situation has prompted the U.S. to make recommendations and preparation for evacuation of its citizens in Ukraine.

On Sunday, the State Department recommended that all U.S. citizens in Ukraine depart the country immediately, citing Russia’s extraordinary military buildup on the border.

“Our recommendation to U.S. citizens currently in Ukraine is that they should consider departing now using commercial or privately available transportation options,” a senior State Department official said Sunday evening on a call with reporters.

Russia annexed Crimea, a peninsula on the Black Sea, in 2014, triggering an array of sanctions against Moscow, as the move was internationally condemned. As a result, Russia was removed from the Group of 8, or G-8, referring to the eight major global economies.

Though a coalition of Western powers is promising heavy consequences if Russia attacks, Moscow has been adamant to deescalate the heightening tension and the West is convinced that Russia can attack at any time.

The European Union is ready to impose “never-seen-before” economic sanctions on Russia if it attacks Ukraine, Denmark said on Monday, and EU foreign ministers said they would send a unified warning to Moscow.

“Russia should know, (President Vladimir) Putin should know that the price of using provocations and military forces to change borders in Europe will be very, very high… We are ready to undertake the most severe sanctions, also more severe than in 2014,” Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod told reporters.

On Monday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that at the order of President Joe Biden, about 8,500 U.S. troops have been put on heightened alert for a possible deployment to Eastern Europe. The troops are on standby to support the around 40,000 multinational troops that make up the NATO response force if activated.

“The United States has taken steps to heighten the readiness of its forces at home and abroad, so they are prepared to respond to a range of contingencies, including support to the NATO response force if activated,” Kirby said.

Russia has about 100,000 troops in its border with Ukraine but has played down the possibility of attacking Ukraine. Moscow said the U.S. and NATO are escalating the tension. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “the informational hysteria that we are witnessing” is “generously framed by a huge amount of false information.”

Despite Peskov’s claim, the U.S. and the U.K are reducing their Kyiv, Ukraine embassy staff, starting with non-essential staff and family members, which points to the expectation of a possible single outcome – attack by Russia. The Ukrainian government said that Moscow would soon have enough forces for a full-scale invasion.

What it means for the oil market

Oil prices reached a seven-year high last week amid tightened supply and growing demand buoyed by the global economy reopening. Brent Crude hit $87.27 a barrel while White Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose above $83 in a market gain attributed partly to the tension in the Russia-Ukraine border.

Analysts believe the geopolitical tension poses risk of supply disruption that keeps oil demand solid and prices high.

“The market tone stays strong, supported by heightening geopolitical risk. We see profit-taking when the prices move higher, but buying appetite for oil remains solid as investors are worried about supply disruptions in the event of a Russia-Ukraine conflict,” said Chiyoki-Chen, chief analyst at Sunward Trading.

Besides the effect of a possible Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies known as OPEC+, is still struggling to meet up with its 400,000 barrels per day supply output target.

“Downside risk on the oil market will be limited as any escalations of the situation in Ukraine or the Middle East will cause the prices to skyrocket. Also, supply tightness is expected to continue as OPEC+ is struggling to reach its output target and will likely keep its policy of gradual increase of supply,” Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities said.

The last time I checked, even a dummy across the Nigerian State could attest to the conspicuous fact that the long awaited general elections are fast approaching.

The aforementioned situation is obvious that any living creature can easily take note of the circumstance as well as the intrigues and intricacies surrounding it. It could arguably be noticed by not just a dummy but an epileptic patient.

It suffices to assert that every right thinking Nigerian is at the moment filled with mixed feelings as regards what the outcome or endpoint of the impending exercise would entail.

Since prediction is not unconnected with mankind, in various quarters, many have already predicted who becomes the next Executive President of the country. The predictions have continued unabated that it had in some cases resulted in arguments.

Whatever the case might be, what matters most is the need for Nigerians to fully prepare their mindsets for the fast approaching events; the need for the electorate to acknowledge that the anticipated output of the elections can only come into reality if the expected input is duly tendered.

The ‘input’ as stated above is the voting aspect expected to be carried out by the prospective voters. It is only through voting the country can boast of an election results.

In other words, results cannot be manufactured by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Results, which would determine the output or outcome of the civic exercise, can only be gotten and counted if the electorate do the needful.

The needful is to ensure that they cast their votes aptly and equally ensure that the votes are duly counted by the electoral officers or collation officials assigned to their respective polling booths.

As the elections are fast approaching, I want to in my capacity as an analyst and activist deeply advise the three key actors of the political outing namely: the political parties alongside the aspirants, the electoral umpire and the electorate.

The various political parties and their awaited flag bearers must endeavour to stick to the rules at all times as they undergo the ongoing campaign process as well as at the polls.

The parties need to genuinely conscientize their teeming followers to eschew violence at all cost as they collectively throw their support for them. They must make them realize that they aren’t expected to go about posing muscles and fists to their perceived opponents. They are rather required to comport themselves in any occasion they find each other in regard to the ongoing political era.

The parties cum aspirants in their own accord are equally expected to remain civil and disciplined. They shouldn’t see the incoming contest as a ‘do or die affair’.

A good and decent politician who truly means well for the people is ready to contest for a particular position as many times as possible provided the election is free and fair. But one who doesn’t mean well for the people would want to acquire the post by all means; this practice is unequivocally an aberration.

The aspirants, therefore, must distance their mindsets from any thought concerning rigging or allied matters. They ought to solely concentrate on how to gain the people’s votes at the polls, and nothing more. Hence, they shouldn’t indulge themselves in any form of thought or action targeted to go contrary to the accepted norms or electoral rules.

The electoral umpire, INEC, on their part, must be willing to carry out their statutory obligations without violating the extant laws or Acts. Thus, its officials shouldn’t intend involving themselves in anything that has undertones of pranks or misdeed.

They must take into cognizance that the people at large coupled with various concerned entities are keenly looking up to them, hence wouldn’t welcome any excuses.

The INEC is required to be neutral, patriotic and unbiased no matter whose ox is gored. Neutral, in the sense that, they are required to be at the centre stage. One who is at the centre stage is the person who ensures that the activity in question is carried out peacefully and successfully.

Among all, one at centre-stage mediates between competing or disagreeing parties, hence is expected to ensure the contest doesn’t result in any form of crisis irrespective of the level of provocation.

Patriotic, in the sense that, they must have the interest of the country at heart. A patriotic citizen is one who loves his or her country and strongly supports the progress of such society. If you really love a certain locality, you must do everything humanly possible to encourage or promote its activities and dreams. So, the INEC is required to be patriotic at all cost.

Unbiased, in the sense that, they are meant to remain fair and truthful at all times, thus mustn’t show any act of prejudice or favouritism. The INEC is expected to be objective in its judgement over the polls. Its officials are, therefore, required to free themselves from all emotions and one-sided calculations regardless of the circumstance.

Inter alia, the electorate must be sure of what they actually want. It is only by acknowledging what they want, they can ascertain the candidate that has what it takes to do the needful. They shouldn’t allow uncalled issues to becloud their sense of reasoning.

It’s noteworthy that they are the only ones imbued with the powers to determine the outcome of the polls, hence the need to be extremely careful and mindful of their actions and inactions.

If any aspirant informed them that he or she is damn determine to fix the economy of the country, they ought to ask the person to show them the processes through which they intend fixing the economy or system. They shouldn’t depend on mere pledges; rather, ought to rely on the practical-oriented avowal that accompanies the promises.

Above all, those who are yet to register, revalidate or collect their Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC), as the case may be, should do so without further ado. Like I earlier stated, only the electorate are expected to tender the input that would determine the output of the awaited elections.

So, they must note that without their PVCs, no input would be recorded at the polls, and this smacks of danger for the entire system. It’s appalling to acknowledge that thousands of PVCs are reportedly yet to be collected across the country.

All in all, every party involved, either institution or individual, shouldn’t allow frivolities to override priorities.