It’s been 10 days since the Nigerian government suspended the operation of microblogging app, Twitter indefinitely but later updated temporarily. The decision, which has been widely criticized as suppression of freedom of expression, was made after Twitter removed a tweet from President Muhammadu Buhari which violated its policy.

The tweet reads: “Many of those misbehaving today are too young to be aware of the destruction and loss of lives that occurred during the Nigerian Civil War. Those of us in the fields for 30 months, who went through the war, will treat them in the language they understand.” His reference to Nigerian civil war, which claimed more than 2 million lives, mostly Igbos, and the threat to “treat them in the language they understand” provoked a global backlash. It was widely perceived as a threat to repeat the war actions against the Igbos.

Twitter deleted the tweet for violating its “abusive behavior” policy, and in retaliation, the Buhari administration announced the suspension of the social media app in Nigeria.

While the development appears to be centered on recent events, there is much more to it. The Nigeria government has been in loggerhead with social media since 2015. In November 2019, a bill known as the Protection from Internet Falsehood and Manipulation Bill 2019, sponsored by Senator Sani Musa, was being debated in the National Assembly. There was also the Prohibition of Hate Speech Bill sponsored by Senator Sabi Abdullai. Each of these bills was seeking to control free speech and how Nigerians react to issues.

Though the Bills didn’t survive the local and international opposition that greeted them, they didn’t go beyond second reading, the bad blood between social media and Buhari’s administration has remained. The Bill was seen as part of the government’s efforts to suppress free speech, given its attitude towards journalists and the Nigerian media space in general, especially the broadcasting part of the press.

The regulator, National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) had doled out a set of new broadcasting codes prohibiting TV and Radio stations from airing whatever the government considers “hate speech” or unwholesome for Nigeria’s public consumption. Media houses have been raided and some journalists had to flee the country as the attack on press, based on the new broadcasting codes, rose. The body language of the Nigerian press gradually started changing from “expressive” to “careful,” and the people were taking note of it all.

So with the perception that the Nigerian press has been compromised, and many media outlets intimidated to practice “careful” journalism, many Nigerians turned to citizen journalism, and Twitter became their platform.

In the past five years, Twitter has given voice to Nigerians, who fearlessly question the dos and don’ts of the people in power. It has also become the platform for citizen-based checks and balances that do not only challenge the status quo, but also expose the ills many state actors don’t want in the limelight.

The most significant example of Nigerian Twitter power was the End SARS protest, a campaign against police brutality that happened in October 2020. It has been described as the most successful protest in Nigeria. It kicked off on Twitter, sustained by charisma and extraordinary organization that beat every government’s attempt to quell it. Jack Dorsey, the founder and CEO of Twitter didn’t hide his support for the protest. He approved an icon for the campaign on Twitter, and the platform was used to coordinate the worldwide donations that supported the protest.

The government was outsmarted, overpowered, that it felt threatened and sought to end the protest in a very brutal way – the Lekki Massacre. Scores of protesters who had gathered at Lekki Toll Plaza were shot and killed. In his chat with journalists on AriseTV during his visit to Lagos on Thursday, Buhari said that the End SARS protest was designed by “young people that wanted to march here and remove me.” His statement confirmed how threatened he felt over a protest that began on Twitter.

Ever since the end of the End SARS protest, the Nigerian government appears not only wary, but paranoid of the activities on Twitter, and seems ready not to allow Twitter to power anything close to the protest again. So when the microblogging platform took the step to remove Buhari’s tweet, it seems to have triggered Government’s paranoia and spurred the decision to end it once and for all time. But there may be a price to pay for the Twitter suspension that the Nigerian government cannot afford for now.

Twitter is a US tech company operating in Nigeria under International Investment Law, which protects foreign investors and their investments from unfair interference by a host government through regulation or other governmental measures that are arbitrary and unfair. The decision of the Nigerian government to suspend Twitter does not only contravene the International Investment Law, it also breaches the right or freedom of expression of the Nigerian people as enshrined in the constitution.

The US government has joined other nationalities urging Nigeria to rescind the decision, which now, does not only amount to authoritarianism but also to an attack on a company of US origin.

“Unduly restricting the ability of Nigerians to report, gather, and disseminate opinions and information has no place in a democracy. Freedom of expression and access to information both online and offline are foundational to prosperous and secure democratic societies,” U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement.

The department called on the Nigerian government to “respect its citizens’ right to freedom of expression by reversing this suspension.”

It is one of the several times under Buhari, the United States government has called on the Nigerian government to respect its democratic values, the wish of its people and the laws of the land.

It has also added to the many cases of human rights abuse, extra judicial killings and suppression of press freedom the present Nigerian government has been accused of. President Buhari has an authoritarian textbook dating back to his days as the military head of state, which people believe he’s been acting from.

Against this backdrop, calls are growing for Western governments, led by the US, to mete out sanctions against Nigerian government. It is believed to be the only language that the Nigeria government understands apart from violence.

Prior to 1999, Nigeria was under military rule, riddled with murder, extrajudicial killings and human rights abuses. There were global calls for the African most populous nation to return to democratic rule, but the calls failed to move the military leaders to yield. In 1993, when the democratic election, which would have changed the system of government was annulled, the US announced a series of sanctions against Nigeria.

In April 1997, the UN Commission on Human Rights, comprising 53 member-nations, sternly rebuked the Nigerian government for its continued ‘violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms, as well as failure to respect due process of law’. The rebuke was followed by moves by the US and Commonwealth to impose economic sanctions, which would have further compounded Nigeria’s economic standing as a pariah state. The sanctions by the United States, and the move by other nations to augment the sanctions with further economic sanctions, is believed to be the major reason the military yielded to the call for transition to democratic government.

Soon after the Lekki Massacre, when more than 500,000 petitions compelled the UK Parliament to deliberate on Nigerian government’s actions against peaceful protestors and consider adequate punitive response, the Nigerian government was quick to write to the UK government, explaining their side of the story. The move was interpreted by many as a sign of fear of being sanctioned.

With the pressure gathering momentum once again, especially when the US has an interest (Twitter) to protect, the hammer may rise and fall again on the Nigerian government. And the impact will have a devastating effect on the fragile economy that the government has depended on foreign loans to sustain, following the massive decline in oil revenue. It is a path the Nigerian government wouldn’t want to tow as it may affect any area of benefits from the West it can’t afford to lose now.

Therefore, with Nigeria’s one thousand and one problems, which it depends mainly on external assistance to contain, the word of wisdom on the street calls on the federal government to rescind the Twitter suspension before the US talks to it in a language it understands.

This is the full text…

SPEECH BY HIS EXCELLENCY, MUHAMMADU BUHARI, PRESIDENT AND COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF THE ARMED FORCES FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA ON THE OCCASION OF COMMEMORATION AND CELEBRATION OF DEMOCRACY DAY ON 12TH JUNE, 2021

Fellow Nigerians,

I join you all today to commemorate and celebrate our Democracy Day. It is a celebration of freedom and a victory for one people, one country and one Nigeria.

1. As with all democracies we will always be going through improvement processes in our desire to reach the goal of a mature democracy, a strong, evolved and integrated nation state to be reckoned with globally.

2. In the last two years we have witnessed and overcome a good number of testy challenges that would have destroyed other nations especially relating to our collective security.

3. The indefatigable CAN DO Spirit of the Nigerian has sustained us and would keep pushing us to put these challenges behind us.

4. Unfortunately some of these challenges came in the shape of violent outrages leading to the loss of lives of many of our dear compatriots and the destruction of some of our infrastructure, including those devoted to improving our democratic processes.

5. Once again, I want to render my sincere and heart-felt condolences to the families and friends of our gallant service men and women who lost their lives in the line of duty and as a sacrifice to keep Nigeria safe.

6. I extend the same condolence to the families and friends of our country men, women and children who were unfortunate victims of such senseless arsons, kidnappings and murders.

1. Let me assure my fellow citizens that every incident, however minor gives me great worry and concern and I immediately order security agencies to swiftly but safely rescue victims and bring perpetrators to justice.

Fellow Nigerians,

1. When you elected me as your President in 2015, you did so knowing that I will put an end to the growing insecurity, especially the insurgency in the North East, but the unintended consequences of our scattering them in the North East pushed them further in-country which is what we are now facing and dealing with.

2. We will, by the Grace of God put an end to these challenges too.

3. Unfortunately, like in most conflict situations, some Nigerian criminals are taking undue advantage of a difficult situation and profiteering therefrom with the misguided belief that adherence to the democratic norms handicaps this Administration from frontally and decisively tackling them.

4. We are already addressing these obstacles and we will soon bring some of these culprits to justice.

5. We are, at the same time addressing the twin underlying drivers of insecurity namely poverty and youth unemployment.

1. Rice import bill alone dropped from $1 billion to $18.5 million annually.

2. This initiative supported local production of rice, maize, cotton and cassava. Government financed 2.5 million small-holder farmers cultivating about 3.2 million hectares of farmland all over the country and created 10 million direct and indirect jobs.

3. Several other initiatives, namely AgriBusiness/Small and Medium Enterprise Investment Scheme, the Non-oil Export stimulation Facility, the Targeted Credit Facilities operated across the 774 Local Governments.

4. In the manufacturing sector the CBN – BOI N200 billion facility financed the establishment and operations of 60 new industrial hubs across the country, creating an estimated 890,000 direct and indirect jobs.

5. The CBN’s N50 billion Textile Sector intervention Facility increased capacity utilization of ginneries from 30% to nearly 90%.

6. The Economic Sustainability Plan – our rebound plan for the COVID-19 pandemic developed in 2020 is currently being executed. The plan is primarily focused on the non-oil sector, which has recorded phenomenal growth contributing over 90% to the GDP growth in Q1 2021.

7. Though marginal we have recorded GDP growth over two quarters; Q2 2020 and Q1 2021. This is evidence of a successful execution of the ESP by the Federal Government.

8. My vision of pulling 100 million poor Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years has been put into action and can be seen in the National Social Investment Programme, a first in Africa and one of the largest in the world where over 32.6m beneficiaries are taking part. We now have a National Social register of poor and vulnerable households, identified across 708 local government areas, 8,723 wards and 86,610 communities in the 36 States and the FCT.

9. Our conditional cash transfer program has benefited over 1.6 million poor and vulnerable households comprising more than 8 million individuals. This provides a monthly stipend of N10,000 per household.

10. I have also recently approved the National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy Plan that augments existing plans to further reduce poverty in Nigeria.

11. As at the end of 2020, the Development Bank of Nigeria had disbursed 324 billion Naira in loans to more than 136,000 MSMEs, through 40 participating Financial Institutions. I am to note that 57% of these beneficiaries are women while 27% are the youth.

12. We are able to do all these and still accelerate our infrastructure development through sensible and transparent borrowing, improved capital inflow, improving and increasing revenue through capturing more tax bases and prudent management of investment proceeds in the Sovereign Wealth Fund.

Fellow Nigerians,

1. Our infrastructure revolution continues with key projects attaining critical milestones under the Presidential Infrastructure Development Fund; The Second Niger Bridge, The Lagos- Ibadan Expressway and the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Expressway.

2. I have also approved the establishment of Infraco Plc, a world-class infrastructure development vehicle wholly focused on Nigeria with a capital structure of N15 trillion.

3. The rail system is not left out as the Itakpe-Warri standard gauge rail was completed and commissioned 33 years after construction began. The Lagos-Ibadan double track railway line which I have just commissioned has commenced operations.

4. We are focused on ensuring that our infrastructure drive is key to economic growth and one that can be felt by every Nigerian. Building critical infrastructure in our ports is also opening up opportunities for the Nigerian economy.

5. My approval for 4 new seaports using a Public-Private-Partnership approach is hinged on growing the Nigerian economy. These four sea ports; Lekki Deep Sea Port, Bonny Deep Sea Port, Ibom Deep Sea Port and Warri Deep Sea port will create massive job opportunities and foreign investment inflows.

6. We have worked at deepening our Eastern ports leading to success like having three container ships berth at Calabar port, a first in 11 years. Similarly, on October 30 2019, an LPG tanker operated by NLNG berthed in Port Harcourt, the first time an LPG ship is berthing at any of the Eastern Ports.

7. As we invest in these new assets, we have also made strides in ensuring that they are secured and protected. In this regard I am also pleased to note the launch of the NIMASA Deep Blue project – which is an Integrated National Security and Waterways Protection Infrastructure that I recently commissioned. This initiative is designed to add to the layer of security we have to safeguard our maritime sector.

Dear Nigerians,

1. I will be the first to admit that in spite of our efforts and achievements which are there for all to see, there is still much more to be done and we are doing our best in the face of scarce resources and galloping population growth rate that consistently outstrips our capacity to provide jobs for our populace. Our over-all economic target of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years is our goal notwithstanding COVID-19.

2. In the last two years we lifted 10.5 million people out of poverty – farmers, small-scale traders, artisans, market women and the like.

3. I am very convinced that this 100 million target can be met and this informed the development of a National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy. The specific details of this accelerated strategy will be unveiled shortly.

4. In the last one year, Nigeria and the whole world faced COVID-19 for which no one was fully prepared.

5. Our response to the pandemic involved making hard choices in balancing livelihoods and public health concerns. You are all living witnesses to how successful this has been due to a number of pro-active measures put in place. Our response to COVID-19 is globally acclaimed.

6. We were able to ensure that the various lockdown measures did not impact too negatively on the ability of ordinary Nigerians to continue sustaining their livelihoods.

7. During the pandemic, we disbursed N5,000 to 1 million Nigerians using a Rapid Response Register and advanced N20,000 to 750,000 beneficiaries of the Conditional Cash Transfer Progamme and provided 1.37 million Nigerians with palliatives from CACOVID.

8. At the same time the Federal Government released 109,000 metric tonnes of food reserve stocks and 70,000 metric tonnes of grains to the poor and vulnerable in all 36 states of the federation.

9. In addition, Government reduced interest rates from 9% to 5% for struggling businesses and extended credit facilities to 548,345 beneficiaries.

Fellow Nigerians,

1. When this administration decided to change our Democracy Day from 29th May to June 12th in my first tenure, it was not only to honour the sacrifices of the men and women of our country who fought for the return to democracy but also to demonstrate our commitment to satisfy the aspirations of the people and creating an environment for democracy to be an accepted way of life.

2. As your President, I remain committed to providing an enabling environment for a free, fair and credible electoral system under my tenure.

3. However, you need to play your part by getting involved at any level you can supporting a democratic system that works for all and not for a section or a select few and demand accountability from your elected leaders.

4. My commitment to bequeathing a sustainable democratic culture remains resolute, my pursuit of a fair society remains unshaken and my desire to see that Nigeria remains a country for each and every one of us has never been stronger.

5. In responding to the challenges that this period imposes on us, Government also recognises the need to acknowledge notions of marginalisation and agitations for constitutional amendments among various segments of our population.

6. While this government is not averse to constitutional reform as part of our nation building process, everyone must understand that the primary responsibility for constitutional amendments lies with the National Assembly.

7. This body which, as I said, is the arm of government responsible for constitutional changes has concluded the preliminary stages of amending and improving our constitution in a way that the majority of Nigerians will be happy with.

8. Government is, however, willing to play a critical role in the constitutional amendment process without usurping the powers of the National Assembly in this regard.

9. As a nation we have come very far from where we started and we are getting incrementally closer to where we ought to be.

10. Overcoming the present challenges is but one of a necessary process that we have to undergo as a nation so that we can come out stronger. The day I joined the Nigerian Army I was prepared to lay down my life for Nigeria.

11. As your President I remain ever committed to upholding and defending Nigeria’s corporate existence.

12. In adhering to the Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy notably section 14(2)(b) I shall do all within my power to ensure that the Security and welfare of the people remain the primary purpose of government.

13. I have, throughout my tenure, provided the security agencies with all they require relative to available resources and will be providing more as the dynamics unfold to put an end to our security problems.

14. My strong belief in the Nigerian spirit gives me comfort that we are facing these challenges with renewed commitment to keep our country one.

15. I thank you for your patience and attention and more importantly your resolve to join hands in making Nigeria the country of our dream.

Happy Democracy Day! God Bless us All, God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Who becomes APC flagbearer in 2023? President Buhari responds: ““I just told you we started from bottom up. And I gave the acting Chairman (Mala Buni) the end of this month of June…to give me report on the convention we are going to conduct and then arrange the elections and started this from bottom up.

“So, members of the party will feel they are involved in decision making. Nobody is just sitting in Lagos and asking them what to do.”

Did you get that part…“sitting in Lagos ”.

Again, he said, “succession plan depends on the party. We are going to leave it to the party. The party will sit and make a decision.”

Since 2015 when APC came to power, Mr Tinubu has continued to face challenges from other party leaders, denying him a firm grip on the party.

He was instrumental to the exit of former chairman John Odigie-Oyegun but his struggle to save Mr Odigie-Oyegun’s successor, Adam Oshiomhole, failed last year. Mr Oshiomhole is a key ally of Mr Tinubu.

This 2023 in Nigeria is going to be really intriguing. I am also updating my call that Bola Tinubu will pick this up to a “toss” between a governor and a senator in the northern part of the nation, if APC goes with bottom-up model, since more delegates are in the north.

But who can predict what will happen if they pass Tinubu? Yes, Tinubu joins PDP and runs as Vice President under Atiku Abubakar. After all both of them met in the airport a few days ago!

NB: All businesses in the world are united under politics because the biggest business in markets is politics. I am a political junkie. If you do not like politics, move to other topics. But I cannot be spending money in economies without paying attention to politics!

Ahead on 2023 – The Bola Tinubu and David Umahi Presidential Ticket