A sharp surge in artificial intelligence spending by America’s largest technology companies has propelled U.S. equities to fresh records. Still, Goldman Sachs analysts caution that a dramatic pullback in investment could wipe out much of those gains.

In a research note released this week, strategists led by Ryan Hammond highlighted how capital expenditures from hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle have fueled revenue growth across the AI supply chain — from semiconductor giants like Nvidia to cloud infrastructure and hardware providers.

Record Spending, Record Valuations

Goldman estimates that hyperscaler capital spending has already reached $368 billion in 2025, surpassing earlier forecasts. These outlays, primarily for data centers, GPUs, and cloud capacity, have translated directly into real revenues for chipmakers and service providers, powering the boom in AI-linked stocks.

The five largest companies in the S&P 500 — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon — currently trade at a price-to-earnings multiple of 28, lofty by historical standards but still well below the peaks of 40 in 2021 and 50 during the 2000 dot-com bubble. Goldman stresses that, unlike past speculative manias, today’s valuations are supported by tangible revenue growth.

The Risk of a Spending Slowdown

Even so, analysts warn that the market is vulnerable to a sudden shift. Should hyperscaler investment revert to 2022 levels, AI hardware and services providers could lose out on 30 percent of the projected $1 trillion in S&P 500 sales growth expected in 2026. In such an “extreme scenario,” Goldman’s model suggests the S&P 500’s overall multiple could fall by 15 to 20 percent.

“The durability of this rally is tied directly to capex momentum,” Hammond and his team wrote, noting that investor enthusiasm is highly dependent on hyperscalers maintaining their aggressive pace of investment.

Echoes of Past Tech Booms — But With a Difference

Goldman stops short of labeling the current rally a bubble. Unlike the dot-com era, the revenues generated by AI demand are immediate and measurable. Nvidia, for example, has booked record-breaking quarterly sales from data center chips, while cloud providers have reported accelerating customer adoption of AI services.

The historical parallel, however, is instructive. In the early 2000s, telecom carriers poured hundreds of billions of dollars into network buildouts, only to abruptly cut spending when revenues failed to match projections — a collapse that left equipment suppliers with excess capacity and stock prices in freefall. Similarly, the cloud-computing boom of the 2010s saw an arms race in data center investment, though in that case, demand ultimately caught up and reshaped the enterprise software industry.

Today’s AI spending wave shares elements of both: a massive upfront infrastructure buildout with uncertain long-term demand curves, but also faster near-term monetization than earlier cycles.

Momentum Still Upward — For Now

Despite concerns about sustainability, the rally continues. AI-related stocks rose 32 percent in 2024 and have added another 17 percent so far in 2025. Analysts broadly expect spending growth to slow toward the end of 2025 or into 2026, but leading tech firms have consistently revised guidance higher, suggesting the inflection point may be further away than feared.

Currently, Wall Street remains split. Bulls argue that AI is a transformative technology still in the early innings, while skeptics warn that markets are pricing in perfection. Goldman’s message to investors lands somewhere in between: the upside is real, but so are the risks.

The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has announced a new De Minimis policy that will allow duty-free clearance for imported goods valued at $300 or less, effective Monday, September 8, 2025.

The policy is designed to simplify customs procedures, support cross-border trade, and strengthen Nigeria’s position as a regional hub for e-commerce.

Announcing the decision in a press release issued Sunday, September 7, 2025, Abdullahi Maiwada, PhD, Assistant Comptroller of Customs and National Public Relations Officer for the Comptroller-General of Customs, said the new framework will cover low-value consignments, e-commerce shipments, and passenger baggage. He noted that the initiative brings Nigeria in line with global benchmarks under the World Trade Organization Trade Facilitation Agreement and the World Customs Organization’s Revised Kyoto Convention.

“The Nigeria Customs Service Board (NCSB), at its 63rd regular meeting held on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, chaired by the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has approved a De Minimis Threshold Value for low-value consignments imported through express shipments or by passenger baggage,” the statement read.

It continued: “This decision, which takes effect on Monday, 8th September 2025, aligns with the best global practices that aim to simplify clearance processes for low-value consignments, enhance trade facilitation, and provide clarity for e-commerce stakeholders and travelers. After a comprehensive review of similar practices across continents, the Board approved $300 as Nigeria’s official De Minimis threshold. This exemption will apply to low-value imports, e-commerce consignments, and passenger baggage.”

How the policy works

Each individual will be allowed to benefit from the exemption for up to four importations per year, provided the items are not prohibited or restricted. Eligible consignments will be released immediately at ports or entry points without the need for post-clearance documentation, significantly reducing delays that have long frustrated importers and travelers.

The NCS also announced the creation of multi-channel helpdesk platforms to guide stakeholders, address inquiries, and resolve complaints. However, the agency cautioned against abuse of the new framework, warning that attempts to manipulate invoices or evade duties will attract strict penalties, including forfeiture of goods or arrest.

Comparative context

Nigeria’s $300 threshold is significant, but it also highlights how countries balance revenue protection with trade facilitation. In the United States, before the Trump administration axed it, the De Minimis threshold stood at $800 — one of the most generous in the world — a policy credited with fueling the country’s booming e-commerce market by encouraging imports of small packages. The European Union operates a much lower limit, at €150, while in the United Kingdom the threshold is £135.

Within Africa, thresholds vary widely. South Africa does not operate a clear De Minimis framework, often applying duties even on very small imports. Kenya allows exemptions up to $50, while Ghana’s level is $200. Nigeria positions itself above many regional peers by setting its limit at $300, signaling an openness to e-commerce-driven trade while still being more conservative than the U.S. or some advanced economies.

Trade experts suggest that this move could help Nigeria capture a larger share of cross-border retail transactions in West Africa, especially as Lagos continues to emerge as a logistics hub for international delivery firms.

Some analysts believe that the $300 threshold could serve as a catalyst for Nigeria’s fast-growing e-commerce sector, where small merchants and individual shoppers often face bottlenecks due to complex and costly customs procedures. The policy is expected to improve supply chain efficiency, reduce costs for online retailers, and encourage more Nigerians to engage in cross-border e-commerce by easing clearance for lower-value items.

It also positions Nigeria closer to regional peers that already operate with De Minimis thresholds, boosting competitiveness and investor confidence in its trade infrastructure.

The new policy is expected to reduce clearance delays, lower trade transaction costs, and make Nigeria more attractive as a hub for logistics and retail. However, many believe that its success will depend on consistent enforcement and transparency, as stakeholders warn that any abuse or uneven application could undermine the gains.

I enrolled with a student visa in Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA. I invented technology and filed a US patent and wrote a book – Nanotechnology and Microelectronics – which received IGI Global Book of the Year. By the time I was done, I had a green card. That time, Canada sourced and offered a special permit: come to Canada. Open and amazing – the beautiful America is home.

But things are changing rapidly as China revamps its visa system. Yes, China will roll out a new K visa starting October 1, 2025, aimed at attracting young professionals in tech, science, and entrepreneurship. This visa marks a strategic shift away from traditional work visa models by eliminating the need for employer sponsorship – a significant barrier for independent innovators. Instead, applicants can enter without a job offer, making it more accessible for early-career researchers, entrepreneurs, and inventors (news here)

Since Nigeria and Africa in general have no plan for our young people, things may change in a decade and my question is this: by 2035, what would be the choice of this young person? Would he stay in Nigeria, choose China or USA?

China to Launch New K Visa on October 1, Targeting Young Global Tech and Science Talent