Oil markets jolted global financial assets on Monday as a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict sent crude prices surging and forced governments and investors to reassess the economic fallout from a potential supply shock.

Brent crude briefly climbed to $119.50 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate touched $119.48, marking the strongest intraday levels since mid-2022 and putting Brent on track for one of its largest single-day advances on record. The rally was driven by mounting concerns over disrupted production and shipping routes across the Persian Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply moves.

The spike in crude prices came as several major regional producers — including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates — began reducing production amid rising operational risks and storage constraints. Analysts warned that the situation could tighten global supplies further if the conflict deepens or shipping disruptions intensify.

“The violent reaction stems from the markets seeing no obvious offramp in the escalating Middle East conflict, now a high-stakes standoff where neither side appears willing to blink first,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. “The risk of more lasting economic damage continues to build by the day.”

The geopolitical escalation coincided with a political development in Tehran. Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei will succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, as Supreme Leader, signaling continuity in the country’s hardline leadership as tensions with the United States and Israel intensify.

The oil surge rippled through global commodity markets. Agricultural products rallied sharply as traders anticipated stronger demand for biofuel feedstocks tied to higher crude prices. Malaysian palm oil jumped about 9% while Chicago soybean oil climbed to its highest level since late 2022. Wheat futures rose to their highest since June 2024, and corn prices reached a 10-month peak.

Industrial metals showed a mixed response. Aluminium surged to its strongest level in four years, with benchmark three-month contracts on the London Metal Exchange hitting $3,544 per metric ton. Supply fears intensified after regional smelters such as Qatalum in Qatar and Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure on shipments amid rising regional instability.

Other base metals, however, faced pressure from currency dynamics as the U.S. dollar strengthened. The greenback hovered near a three-month high, supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields and fading expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts.

The stronger dollar also weighed on precious metals. Gold fell more than 2% despite the geopolitical turmoil that typically boosts demand for safe-haven assets. Analysts said the decline reflected the combined impact of a stronger dollar, rising yields, and mounting concerns that higher energy prices could prolong global inflation.

Indeed, the oil rally immediately reverberated through bond markets. U.S. Treasury yields climbed as investors braced for renewed inflation pressure stemming from higher energy costs. Markets increasingly expect central banks to maintain tighter monetary conditions for longer if crude prices remain elevated.

Governments around the world have begun scrambling to cushion the economic impact of the energy shock.

Vietnam said it is planning to temporarily remove import tariffs on fuel products to secure adequate supplies amid disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. The tariff suspension, expected to run through the end of April, is being prepared by the Ministry of Finance, according to a government statement issued late Sunday.

In West Africa, supply concerns are also emerging. Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery suspended petrol loading operations over the weekend of March 7–8, highlighting logistical difficulties in maintaining a stable domestic supply during a period of volatile global crude markets. The disruption raised fears of renewed fuel shortages in Africa’s largest economy.

To stabilize supply, the Nigerian government — through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited — has moved to secure crude feedstock for the refinery via third-party international traders. Ensuring reliable crude allocation to the facility is seen as critical to maintaining local refining output and preventing petrol scarcity across Nigeria and parts of the broader West African market.

In Asia, South Korea is considering direct price intervention for the first time in decades. President Lee Jae Myung said Seoul will “swiftly introduce” a fuel price cap to shield consumers from soaring energy costs, marking the country’s first such measure in roughly 30 years. The government is also exploring ways to diversify its energy import sources to reduce vulnerability to Middle East supply disruptions.

The wave of policy responses highlights how quickly the geopolitical crisis is translating into economic risk. Higher energy costs threaten to ripple through transport, manufacturing, and food supply chains, raising the prospect of a renewed global inflation shock just as many economies were beginning to stabilize.

For financial markets, the key uncertainty now is the duration of the conflict and the extent to which energy infrastructure or shipping lanes could be affected. Any prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically vital energy corridors, would amplify supply shortages and could push crude prices significantly higher, with broad consequences for global growth and monetary policy.

Global financial markets tumbled on Monday, as the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict intensifies, fueling fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions, surging living costs, and delayed interest-rate cuts by central banks worldwide.

Crude oil prices soared nearly 30% at one point — one of the largest one-day jumps on record — before settling at elevated levels, reflecting acute concerns over infrastructure damage and shipping halts in the region. Brent crude futures closed up roughly 13% at $104.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 12% to $101.80.

The spike was driven by Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits — is closed, with threats to attack any vessels attempting passage. This has effectively halted tanker traffic, with around 200 ships anchored to avoid risks and insurers cancelling war-risk coverage, pushing freight rates sharply higher.

Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as successor to his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in initial U.S.-Israeli strikes over the weekend. The appointment signals hardliners remain in control, a development unlikely to ease tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump has called the son “unacceptable,” further dimming prospects for de-escalation.

Asian Markets Sink Amid Energy Import Vulnerability

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closed down 5.2%, extending last week’s 5.5% drop, as the country — a major oil and gas importer — braced for higher energy costs. China’s CSI 300 blue-chip index fell roughly 1%, though consumer prices rose 1.3% year-on-year in February, a pre-conflict pickup that could complicate Beijing’s efforts to combat disinflation if oil prices remain elevated.

U.S. stock futures also declined, with S&P 500 futures down 1% and Nasdaq futures off more than 1%. European shares tumbled to their lowest in more than two months, with the StoXX 600 closing down 1.63% after a 5.5% weekly loss — its worst in nearly a year. The risk-off mood has taken hold, with investors fleeing to the U.S. dollar while shunning currencies of net energy importers like Japan and much of Europe.

The dollar strengthened 0.4% to 158.385 yen, outweighing the yen’s safe-haven appeal. The euro slipped 0.5% to $1.1557. J.P. Morgan analysts noted that sustained energy-price increases should further bolster the dollar while pressuring currencies in Central and Eastern Europe.

Bond Yields Climb on Inflation Concerns

In bond markets, inflation fears trumped safe-haven buying, pushing yields higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.175%, up from a recent trough of 3.926%. Interest-rate futures slipped as traders reassessed central bank paths. U.S. CPI data due Wednesday is expected to hold at 2.4% annually, while the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure on Friday is forecast at 3.0% — well above the 2% target — with upside risks from energy costs.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at its March 18 meeting, per CME FedWatch. For the European Central Bank and Bank of England, markets have scaled back easing expectations: the BoE now has only a 40% chance of one more cut, compared with two or more before the conflict intensified.

Gold — typically a safe-haven — fell 1.2% to $5,106 per ounce as the dollar’s strength outweighed risk aversion.

Regional Disruptions and Supply Shock Risks

The conflict has triggered widespread infrastructure shutdowns:

• Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery (550,000 bpd) remains offline after a drone strike.
• Iraqi Kurdistan fields (200,000 bpd exports) are suspended as a precaution.
• Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar gas fields are idled, throttling exports to Egypt.
• Iran’s Kharg Island export hub — processing 90% of Iranian crude — faces uncertain damage from explosions.

Qatar halted LNG production, accounting for 20% of global supply, adding to the energy market strain. The disruptions highlight risks to Asia, which sources 60% of its oil from the Middle East. India — importing ~85% of its crude (4.2 million bpd), with half transiting the Strait — faces acute exposure. Rystad Energy’s Pankaj Srivastava warned that even modest price increases “materially affect” India’s energy economics, balance of payments, and rupee stability.

Morgan Stanley estimates every sustained $10/bbl oil rise could shave 20–30 basis points off Asia’s GDP growth, with India particularly vulnerable due to its wide oil/gas balance.

The benchmark index shed 5.5% last week, its worst weekly performance in nearly a year. In bond markets, the risk of rising inflation outweighed safe-haven considerations to shove yields higher globally. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose 5 basis points to 4.175%, up from a trough of 3.926% just a week ago.

Central Banks Face Inflation Conundrum

Interest rate futures slipped as investors feared the risk of higher inflation would make it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease policy, though disappointing jobs numbers seemed to argue for stimulus.

The danger of energy-driven inflation has led markets to wager that the next move in rates from the European Central Bank could be up, possibly as early as June. For the Bank of England, markets have shifted to pricing just a 40% chance of one more easing, compared with two cuts or more before the Middle East conflict started.

Nervous investors sought the liquidity of dollars while shunning currencies from countries that are net energy importers, including Japan and much of Europe.