I want to share a thing with you in this piece that may guide your next couple years. It has guided mine so far as well. So please enjoy the read.

It’s about decision making

A few years ago when I was preparing for my ICAN Professional Exam, I took a course called Strategic Financial Management (SFM).

In SFM there was this topic called Derivatives. A derivative is one nuanced topic in SFM. Because of this, a lot of people tend to shy away from it, but I took a particular interest in it.

One, because knowing it means I will get the opportunity to teach those who don’t know it (never mind me, I like to teach). Two, because intelligence in it matters to me for self-esteem sake.

I took interest in it and became the go-to-person to consult on it. Mission accomplished :)

But that’s not where I’m going. A segment inside Derivative is called “Option.”

In a simple term, an option is a financial instrument that gives you the right, not the obligation to buy a given asset at a given price on a future date.

The implication of an option as a financial instrument is that it allows you to buy an asset for say $100 on a future date even if the asset’s market price is $164.

Invariably, you have an upside of $64 immediately if you exercise the option.

And if the asset’s market price on that future date is $45, you will choose not to exercise an option that allows you to buy the same asset for $100.

No harm! Just do what’s best for you.

What I’ve not told you yet about an option is that it has a price. Basically, for you to have an option, you will pay quite a small (negligible) price say $5 for an option of say $100.

The implication of the option price is simple.

If on that future date, the asset is selling for less than your option gives you a right to buy it, you won’t exercise such right (to buy) and you will lose the $5 (option price).

On the other hand, if the asset is selling for an amount higher than your option gives you the right to buy, you exercise such right and make a massive gain.

Now, from what I’ve described so far, you will agree with me that in this scenario, your maximum loss is capped at $5 while your maximum gain is theoretically unlimited, unbounded.

That was the lesson I learnt from derivative as a result of my fascination with it.

Let’s talk about how that applies. Before that, let me show you a visual representation of what I just described.

I taught this topic passionately to my Professional Colleague and we all finally got qualified as a Chartered Accountant one time or the other (I think I was part of the last batch to qualify).

Much later in life, the subject of decision making and taking bets will become of high priority for me. And I needed to devise a framework for making decisions.

The need to make smart decisions that have potentially unlimited upside and a known and well-defined downside quickly brought to my remembrance lessons from Derivatives.

Ever since I realized that anytime it’s time to make a decision (a bet), I start by accessing the worst-case scenario.

I am usually very objective and particular about my assessment of the worst-case scenario. That’s important because it’s critical for my decision.

If the worst-case scenario of such bet is acceptable, I move on to estimating the potential upside and characteristics of the upside (limited or unlimited).

Knowing those two variables and their nuances, I make decisions.

Now, where has that gotten me?

There are times that I lose. But remember I’ve established that they are acceptable losses. Life is a risk and we must be ready to accept some losses in other to stand a chance for potential upside.

Times of loss doesn’t particularly move me. I just write off my loss.

No angst at all. Of course, there is the feeling of I wished it had worked out. But never a feeling of that was too much a loss to suffer.

But I must say, the few upsides that I’ve gotten over the period has far more compensated for any loss I might have suffered.

That’s the way the principle works remember: Potentially Unlimited Upside

The message I’m trying to get home should be apparent by now.

Decision making is nuance and until you get better at it, you may be stuck in life. In fact, if you make an unwise decision, it will cost you more than you could possibly take. Devastating is sometimes such failures.

I’ve given you a simple framework that can potentially make you a super decision-maker who always win in a big way. Leverage that framework.

If you want to take a bet (not NairaBet please, I don’t encourage that) on a course of action,

1. Determine the worst-case scenario under a very strict rule
2. Estimate the potential upside its characteristics
3. If the worst-case scenario is acceptable, and the upside is unlimited, go forward and take such bets. Otherwise, neglect it or gather more information.

Do that, and I can guarantee that you would be fine over time.

It was late harmattan season, the trees had grown antlers, dried leaves were sometimes trailed into our apartment, and groceries were on short supply …

My roommate had just returned from a job assessment test, which he found easy and he was invited for an interview the following week.
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He did attend the interview, answering questions fluidly and believed the job was all his to grab, but then a long empty silence followed for he was willing the phone to ring.

No email. No call. No SMS. He had delayed applying for other roles and even turned down offers in the hope of securing a gig at this company.
_
But unfortunately, he got a delayed response of their rejection after a long wasted period of time.

Which led him into a depressed state, feeling heavy and slow, his mind choked with mud as he pondered, he began to cry.

He felt like a small ball, adrift and alone in a big world of uncertainty which he had never foresaw after graduating from college.
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My friend, my friend, alas! Thank goodness he has been off that pitch.

Here is a lesson for hiring managers and outsourcing agencies.

How and when you dismiss candidates speaks volumes about your company and its culture.
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Once you’ve conducted an interview and have made your decision, quickly do the following:

• Let the rejected candidate(s) know as soon as possible of their disqualification.

• Explain in one succinct sentence or paragraph why you’re declining their application or can’t go any farther with them.

• Always personalize your rejection mail or phone call.

• No false promises of staying in touch, just wish them all the best in the future and leave it at that.

• Ask for feedback on your hiring process, tho’ this is optional.

P.S.: With this you won’t hurt anyone’s feeling. Rather you’ll help in putting them out of their misery as quickly as possible.

Gentlemen and Ladies, if you’ve ever been rejected, hear this: When the answer is NO, there is a better YES down the road.

… My friend is a living testimony!

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced modifications Monday that temporarily exempt non-immigrant students. The decision cuts across all categories of the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP), including the F-1 and M-1 students.

The news release published by the Department of Homeland Security said non-immigrant students are not allowed to switch to only online classes or change their course selection to participate in online classes only.

“Non-immigrant students within the United States are not permitted to take full course of study through online classes. If students find themselves in this situation, they must leave the country or take alternative steps to maintain their non-immigrant status such as a reduced course load or appropriate medical leave,” the news release said.

The development has thrown thousands of international students into risk of deportation. COVID-19 pandemic is forcing universities in the United States to switch completely to online studies, but for international students, it means leaving the United States.

The “alternative steps” suggested by ICE means transferring to schools with in-person instruction because universities using a hybrid model, such as a mix of online and in-person classes are exempt. But it is not so easy to transition to other schools in the middle of global health crisis, which means, it will only heighten the anxiety of the unprepared students.

But the guidance is seen as a result of president Trump’s push for schools to resume this fall. The guidelines’ announcement was made by the Immigration and Custom Enforcement on the same day that universities announced they’re going completely online.

Trump has insisted that schools and universities return to in-person instruction as soon as possible and reiterated his preachment for schools to resume in the fall after the guidance was announced.

Brad Farnsworth, vice president of the American Council on Education that represents about 1,800 students, said the announcement caught him and many others by surprise.

“We think this is going to create more confusion and more uncertainty. What we were hoping to see was more appreciation for all the different possible nuances that campuses will be exploring,” he said.

The situation is even more challenging considering that many countries are still on coronavirus lockdown that restricts international travels. And if in the fall the health crisis deteriorates, forcing the universities running the hybrid model to go completely online, the students’ lifeline would be quashed abruptly, leaving them in the middle of nowhere.

CNN reported that Theresa Cardinal Brown, director of immigration and cross-border policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center saying the situation doesn’t question the credibility of these universities, the problem is coronavirus.

“These are not some fly-by-night universities, these aren’t scams, these are legit universities who would normally have in-person curricula but for coronavirus. The bigger issue is some of these countries have travel restrictions on and they can’t go home, so what do they do then? It’s a conundrum for a lot of students,” she said.

For some universities, the ICE decision doesn’t come close as a solution to a complex problem. Harvard University that has moved all its classes online expressed concern over the plights that international students have been thrown into.

Larry Bacow, Harvard University president said the development undermines the thoughtful approach many institutions have taken on behalf of the students.

“We are deeply concern that the guidance issued today by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement imposes a blunt, one-size-fits-all approach to a complex problem giving international students, particularly those in online programs, few options beyond leaving the country or transferring schools” Bacow said.

He added that the guidance by ICE “undermines the thoughtful approach taken on behalf of students by so many institutions, including Harvard, to plan for continuing academic programs while balancing the health and safety challenges of the global pandemic.”

Many see the guidance as part of Trump’s way of advancing his anti-immigration policies. The Trump’s administration has intensified anti-immigration rules recently, using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse. Last month, the administration announced the ban on immigrant visas on the alibi of safeguarding jobs for the American people.

Though Bacow said they “will work closely with other colleges and universities around the country to chart a path forward,” the conditions appear to give the institutions a little or no choice. Part of the rules says that international students won’t be spared from deportation even if an outbreak forces their schools to move from in-person classes to online during the fall semester.