Russian energy giant Gazprom expects its core earnings to grow by 6% to 7% this year as rising domestic gas consumption and expanding pipeline exports to China partially offset the collapse of its once-dominant European business, underscoring the company’s continuing pivot toward Asia following Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.
Speaking at Gazprom’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Deputy Chief Executive Famil Sadygov said the company expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to build on the 2.9 trillion roubles ($37.7 billion) generated in 2025.
The earnings outlook comes as Gazprom continues restructuring its export strategy after losing much of the European market that had been the cornerstone of its business for decades.
Before 2022, Gazprom was Europe’s largest pipeline gas supplier, generating tens of billions of dollars annually from long-term contracts with customers across Germany, Italy, Austria, and several other European countries. However, the Ukraine conflict, Western sanctions, the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, and Europe’s rapid diversification away from Russian energy have dramatically reduced those exports, forcing the Kremlin-controlled producer to seek alternative markets.
Sadygov said Gazprom expects gas deliveries within Russia to increase by 2% to 4% this year as industrial demand, power generation, and government-backed gasification programmes continue expanding.
The domestic market has become an important source of stable sales for Gazprom. Although gas sold inside Russia generates significantly lower margins than exports because prices remain regulated by the government, the market provides dependable volumes that help utilize the company’s vast production and transmission network.
The company’s international growth strategy now centers overwhelmingly on China. Sadygov said Gazprom also expects pipeline exports to China to rise further this year. The company delivered 38.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline in 2025, bringing supplies close to the pipeline’s original design capacity.
During President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China in September, Moscow and Beijing agreed to increase annual deliveries by an additional 6 bcm, raising total annual supplies through the route to 44 bcm. The agreement reinforces the increasingly close energy relationship between Russia and China, with Beijing becoming Moscow’s most important export destination as European demand continues to shrink.
However, analysts note that even expanded Chinese purchases remain insufficient to fully replace the scale of Gazprom’s lost European business.
Before the Ukraine conflict, Gazprom regularly exported well above 150 bcm of gas annually to Europe. Even at the newly agreed 44 bcm level, Chinese deliveries represent less than one-third of those former export volumes.
The company’s broader ambitions to significantly expand exports to China have also encountered persistent obstacles. Negotiations over the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would transport gas from western Siberian fields that previously supplied Europe, have progressed slowly amid disagreements over pricing, contract terms, and financing arrangements.
China has reportedly pushed for lower prices similar to those paid by domestic suppliers, while Russia has sought terms closer to those historically received in Europe. Those differences have delayed what Moscow views as its most important long-term gas export project.
The earnings forecast nevertheless suggests Gazprom believes incremental gains in Asia, together with stronger domestic demand, can support moderate financial growth even as Europe remains largely closed to Russian pipeline gas.
The company is also benefiting from continued investments in Russia’s domestic gas infrastructure, where the government has accelerated programmes aimed at expanding pipeline connections to households and industries, helping create additional long-term demand.
For investors, Gazprom’s guidance highlights the gradual stabilization of the company’s finances after several turbulent years. The expected 6% to 7% EBITDA growth indicates management believes the business has entered a new phase in which domestic consumption and Asian exports will increasingly replace the role once played by Europe.
Even so, the transformation remains incomplete.
China has become Gazprom’s fastest-growing export market, but replacing Europe’s volume, pricing power, and profitability remains one of the company’s biggest strategic challenges.
