No nation has any competitive #4 mobile carrier: two strong leading operators are typical. But in some cases, you can have a forceful #3. But anything beyond #3 is forgettable. Nigeria will not change that until we have billionaires who can buy English ball clubs just to tell their friends: “My boys will play tomorrow, come over to my booth”.

Yes, Teleology Holdings which received approval to take over the operations of 9mobile as the preferred bidder has pulled out of the deal.  The Founder of Teleology Holdings Limited, Mr. Adrian Wood, the pioneer CEO of MTN Nigeria, released a statement, noting: “We now must stand down from further work on the 9mobile project.”

Barely, two months after Teleology Holdings received approval to take over the operations of 9mobile as the preferred bidder, Teleology Holdings has expressed its dissatisfaction with the business relationship with its local partner, 9mobile Nigeria, and has decided to pull out from the 9mobile project, THISDAY has learnt.

[…]

“Fifteen Teleology experts have worked since June 2017 on detailed 9mobile turnaround planning, development strategies and financial restructuring. This included lining up more than $500 million fresh direct foreign investment from international institutions.
9mobile is an exciting opportunity to build a revolutionary mobile network that could be the pride of Nigeria, unfortunately it appears that we will not be able to participate,” Wood said.

Wood added that: “We now must stand down from further work on the 9mobile project.”

As I write this, Glo will be preparing a term sheet. Why? 9Mobile cannot even afford to pay its infrastructure service provider, IHS, which has approval of NCC to disconnect the mobile carrier. When you have huge debts you cannot service, have suppliers you cannot pay, and have lost 7 million subscribers in two years, you are not likely to live longer. I think Glo will end up picking 9Mobile as I had expected. You may ask – why not MTN or Airtel? Answers here.

The June 2017 Prediction of Glo Acquisition of 9Mobile

In this videocast, I make a case why Globacom, the operator of the Glo brand in Nigeria, will acquire Etisalat Nigeria, in 2017. Etisalat Nigeria is in a very challenging position to pay back about $1.2 billion loan to a consortium of banks. In the current market dynamics, with deteriorating ARPU (average revenue per user), it will be extremely difficult for the telecom company to meet that obligation. Glo has liquidity, relatively, and is owned by a respected businessman (Mike Adenuga) who can raise any capital required to close a deal. Glo needs to close its subscriber gap with MTN which enjoys more than 20 million extra subscribers.

I just made it into South Africa, the land of Mandela, and the most hopeful of the hopefuls, south of Sahara.  I was here six times last year, and beginning the African voyage with it. It has energy despite the paralyses it confronts.

As my friends joke here “I hope one day I will visit Africa”. I smile because for most, they do not think they are in sub-Saharan Africa (infrastructure wise depending on where you live) because if someone blindfolds and drops you in downtown Cape Town, you may think you are in San Francisco!

Nigeria has work to do – South African infrastructure excites.

Yesterday, I spoke with a young lady in Aba. She employs 9 people making special hair for Nigerians, mainly in Diaspora. She had connected with my team to help her on free hosting which we offer free to SMEs in Nigeria.

But our community manager wanted to learn more: the lady has no secondary school education but can make really good hair designs. She has 2 people marketing full time, posting images of hair designs on Facebook, Instagram etc.

I asked her “Why a website”? She explained she would like to use it to validate herself as many diaspora Nigerians keep asking for one. Essentially, you can fake a FB profile, but a website with address, pictures of owners, etc could provide authentication.

I gave her a present – a free website besides whatever she was getting.

As Acres of Diamonds has taught us – opportunities abound  in many places. But unlocking them requires having awareness & observation. When you add ACTION, great things could happen.

What is it that you can do well? Think and find ways to monetize it. With the web, you do not need NTA or Guardian to reach customers – the gate is wide open.

Take ACTION – it is a New Year.

Few days ago, I noted that for Apple to find success as it pivots to services, away from hardware, it would need to open its closed ecosystem.  My thesis was based on the fact that services thrive on volume, and Apple needs to improve its marginal cost on serving users. The construct of network effect does not just make products better, through the positive continuum of virtuoso circle, it also improves competitiveness through cost-service efficiency.

Apple would be fine but it needs to understand that services win on volume, and it is time it adjusts strategy to grow user base with cheaper devices. If not, the revenue will be dropping from here.

Interestingly, the company has indeed started that, opening up its ecosystem via partnerships with Amazon and Samsung. Simply, you can now access some of Apple’s services in non-Apple hardware.  The era of proprietary hardware running on exclusive software is over since iTunes now can run on Samsung device and Apple Music blazes on Amazon Echo.

Apple is famous for its “walled garden” approach to software, for the most part limiting its software and services to customers who buy its hardware. To maintain its services momentum, Apple is loosening up its restrictions on who can use them. Apple announced in November that Apple Music would become available on Amazon’s Echo speakers. And Sunday, Samsung said it will put an iTunes app on its smart TVs.

Apple has opened a new era – the Services Era. Yes, we are in the post-iPhone era, in Apple World, since the tech juggernaut announced that the number of iPhone sold would not be reported. Simply, going forward, iPhone is nothing but a revenue contributor, and should not be treated differently.

My prediction is that within five years, Apple Pay, Apple Music, iTunes, and iCloud will work in any decent device in the world. Yes, your Samsung and Tecno devices will qualify. Apple has been normalized because as the African proverb says “when the general public cooks for you, you cannot finish the food, but when you cook for the general public, it would never be enough”. You cannot have all mobile device manufactures in one platform, against one single manufacturer called Apple, and yet expect Apple to survive for long!

LinkedIn Summary

As expected, Apple has opened its walled-garden, and in coming weeks some of your Samsung and Amazon devices will run iTunes or Apple Music. As I have noted in the past, Apple business model of packaging proprietary hardware on exclusive software would work until the hardware reaches finite improvement maturity.

Today, I predict that within five years, Apple Pay, Apple Music, iTunes will run in any Tecno, Samsung or decent device in the world. Apple has ended the iPhone era, internally (not reporting number sold, nothing special anymore), beginning the Services era; those services must be hardware-agnostic if Apple must thrive.

And do not count out the possibility of $300 Apple uPhone (u for “universe”, lol) to help on that service volume; I suggested that last Aug.

The gate to the garden is now open…it can only get wider, from here.