Financial analysts at Optimum Global have projected that the naira will trade between N1,500 and N1,600 to the dollar in the second half of 2025, assuming Nigeria sustains current macroeconomic stability and continues targeted interventions.

The forecast, published in the firm’s newly released half-year outlook titled “Anchored Policy, Unanchored Risks”, builds on trends from the first half of the year and anticipates a moderate outlook for the local currency amid a still-volatile global energy landscape.

The report points to strategic currency interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as a critical factor that helped keep the naira afloat in the face of several external headwinds, particularly sharp swings in oil prices and heightened foreign exchange demand.

First-Half Recap: From Stability to Volatility and Back

The naira opened the year relatively strong, trading at about N1,537/$ in early January. By the end of the month, it appreciated to N1,480/$, largely due to a temporary surge in Brent crude oil prices, which crossed $76 per barrel, while Nigerian oil blends commanded even higher premiums on global markets.

However, that strength was short-lived. Between February and April, the naira weakened steadily, hitting a low of N1,596/$ as oil prices plunged below $60 per barrel. This price slump followed OPEC’s announcement that it would boost oil production to 2.2 million barrels per day by November, starting with a nearly 1 million barrel per day increase between April and June. The prospect of higher global supply pushed prices down, weakening Nigeria’s forex earnings and investor confidence.

The trend reversed from May through June, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reignited fears of supply disruptions. Conflicts between Iran and Israel, and U.S.-Iran standoffs over the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global oil chokepoint—drove prices back up. Nigerian crude traded above $70 per barrel again, restoring some strength to the naira. By the end of June, the currency had climbed to around N1,530/$, recovering nearly 3% from its April trough.

CBN’s Dollar Sales and Reserves Cushion the Naira

Optimum Global’s analysts credit the CBN’s consistent dollar interventions for softening the impact of external shocks. In particular, a significant injection of $197.71 million on April 4 helped stabilize the market amid heightened pressure from falling oil revenues and broader global economic volatility. At the time, the U.S. had just introduced new import tariffs on multiple trading partners, which triggered risk aversion and dollar hoarding across many emerging markets.

Nigeria, highly dependent on crude exports for foreign earnings, saw demand for the dollar rise as reserves came under strain. However, with external reserves climbing to $38.5 billion by June, the CBN had the firepower to continue supplying liquidity and ease pressure on the local currency.

“The naira would have fared much worse if not for the CBN’s timely interventions, particularly during March and April when FX pressure was mounting,” the Optimum Global report stated.

The firm highlighted that while oil prices play a major role in determining the naira’s trajectory, the ability of the CBN to maintain reserve buffers and respond decisively is what has kept investor confidence relatively stable.

What to Expect in H2 2025

Looking ahead, Optimum Global expects the naira to remain range-bound between N1,500 and N1,600 per dollar, provided macroeconomic stability holds and reserves are adequately managed. While geopolitical risks and global oil dynamics remain uncertain, Nigeria’s ability to respond swiftly through policy measures could help limit the downside.

However, the report also warns that risks remain “unanchored,” especially if oil prices fall below sustainable levels or if the CBN is forced to scale back interventions due to reserve depletion. A scenario of prolonged geopolitical instability or new shocks in global financial markets could also derail the fragile stability.

Still, analysts remain cautiously optimistic, noting that the CBN has shown greater agility in responding to currency pressure in recent months.

The report concluded that if current policy coordination is sustained and reserve levels remain above $35 billion, the naira will continue to trade within a controlled band, even with moderate oil price fluctuations.

As the second half of the year begins, the spotlight remains on both the oil market and the CBN’s willingness—and ability—to maintain a firm grip on the FX market.

Sterling Bank Plc has announced a bold plan to raise up to $400 million in capital as it positions itself for long-term growth, increased competitiveness, and strategic partnerships across local and international markets.

The announcement, made after the bank’s 2nd Annual General Meeting held virtually, follows shareholder approval for the wide-ranging capital raise, which will occur through both debt instruments and equity offerings.

In a statement signed by Company Secretary Adeyoola Temple, the bank confirmed that it will create a Shelf Programme, allowing it to issue financial instruments in tranches or series over a specified period. This mechanism gives Sterling the flexibility to tap the capital markets incrementally as needed, without launching a new issuance each time.

According to the statement, the bank is authorized to raise up to $400 million—or the naira equivalent—through instruments such as bonds, commercial papers, sukuks, debentures, medium- or short-term notes, preference shares, ordinary shares, and global depositary receipts. These instruments may be issued via public offerings, private placements, rights issues, or any other mechanisms approved by relevant regulators.

Pricing and interest rates for the instruments will be set through book building or similar valuation methodologies, and the bank will secure necessary approvals from market regulators including the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and relevant exchanges.

Expanding Capital Structure

To support this capital mobilization effort, Sterling Bank’s Board of Directors has received an unconditional mandate to expand the bank’s share capital within a two-year window. This mandate, granted under Sections 127(1) and 149(1)(a) of the Companies and Allied Matters Act 2020—as amended by the Business Facilitation Act 2022—authorizes the board to issue additional shares and revise the bank’s capital structure as necessary.

In case of a rights issue, any unclaimed shares will be redistributed to shareholders who have expressed a willingness to acquire more equity, subject to the board’s discretion. The capital raise also allows Sterling Bank to list and admit the new securities for trading on domestic and international platforms, including the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited, or other exchanges deemed suitable.

In preparation for the expansion, the bank’s Board has been authorized to amend the Memorandum and Articles of Association to reflect the updated capital structure. Additionally, the Company Secretary has been tasked with registering all capital increases with the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) and implementing the necessary regulatory filings as each tranche is issued.

Sterling Bank will also hire legal and financial advisers to guide the process and ensure that all aspects of the raise meet compliance and governance standards.

Positioning for Long-Term Growth

A spokesperson close to the bank’s executive team described the move as a strategic step toward achieving long-term expansion and improving the bank’s ability to compete at both the local and global levels. The capital raise, the spokesperson said, is expected to bolster the bank’s liquidity, expand its capacity to offer credit, and enable more agile responses to growth opportunities across different sectors.

Sterling’s push comes amid a tightening regulatory environment where Nigerian banks are under pressure to strengthen their capital base ahead of a central bank deadline that mandates lenders to meet new capital requirements to support a more resilient banking sector.

A Customer-Centric Outlook

The capital raise follows another major move by Sterling Bank earlier this year that drew public attention. In April, the bank announced it would no longer charge fees on local online transfers conducted through its mobile app—a gesture that was initially met with skepticism as it coincided with April Fools’ Day.

Despite the timing, the policy proved real and has since been touted as a customer-first initiative aimed at improving the digital banking experience. Sterling has positioned itself as a pioneer in customer-centric banking, by eliminating local transfer fees, setting a new standard among Nigerian banks grappling with digital transformation and rising user expectations.

These moves collectively reflect a bank recalibrating its operations for broader ambitions—combining stronger financial backing, technological innovation, and a sharpened focus on customer service to ensure growth.

Nigeria’s daily crude oil production rose to 1.505 million barrels per day (bpd) in June 2025, marking the highest output recorded since January, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The increase, though a welcome improvement, still falls short of the oil benchmark used to structure Nigeria’s 2025 national budget, stirring renewed concern over the country’s fiscal projections.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Tuesday, OPEC disclosed that the production figures were sourced through direct communication with Nigerian authorities. It represents a 3.58 percent uptick from the 1.453 million bpd recorded in May. OPEC’s secondary sources, which track shipments and oilfield activity, put Nigeria’s output slightly higher at 1.547 million bpd.

June’s production means Nigeria met its OPEC-assigned quota of 1.5 million bpd for the second time this year. It also helped the country retain its position as Africa’s top oil producer, ahead of Algeria’s 927,000 bpd.

Progress, But Not Enough

Despite the rebound, analysts say the figure raises red flags for Nigeria’s broader economic stability, particularly given that crude oil remains the country’s top source of revenue and foreign exchange. Nigeria’s 2025 budget was pegged at an ambitious production target of 2.06 million bpd, while the 2024 budget had projected 1.78 million bpd — both well above the current output.

“Nigeria just hit 1.5 million bpd oil output, which funds the federation. The 2025 budget projection is 2.06 million bpd. The 2024 budget projection is 1.78 million bpd. Nigeria will run the 2025 budget plus the capital budget of 2024 in 2025—yes, two budgets—yet it has not hit the oil output target in either year,” noted financial analyst and economist, Kalu Aja.

The mismatch between oil output and budget projections spells potential fiscal instability. With insufficient crude volumes to meet revenue expectations, Nigeria may be forced to rely more heavily on borrowing or increase its dependence on non-oil revenue — a risky move amid declining tax compliance and subdued economic growth.

OPEC’s Global Outlook and Nigeria’s Role

In the wider context, OPEC reported that total crude production among countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) rose by 349,000 bpd in June, bringing collective output to 41.56 million bpd. OPEC+ had earlier this month agreed to increase global supply by 548,000 bpd starting in August, responding to tightening supply dynamics and resurgent demand.

But beneath the surface, OPEC’s leadership continues to warn of future global supply risks. At the 24th Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week Conference in Abuja, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais warned that the world could face a shortfall of 23 million bpd by 2030 if upstream investment lags.

According to Al Ghais, over $17.4 trillion in oil sector investment is needed globally to prevent that shortfall and meet projected energy demand. The warning is particularly relevant for Nigeria, where aging infrastructure, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment have hampered recovery.

The OPEC report also revealed an increase in oil exports to OECD countries, with preliminary data showing commercial inventories rose to 2.771 billion barrels in May, up 34.5 million barrels from April. Despite the month-on-month rise, OECD inventories remain 127.7 million barrels below the latest five-year average and 184.2 million barrels below the 2015–2019 benchmark, indicating sustained pressure on global supply chains.

Outlook for Nigeria

With June’s production numbers offering only a partial relief, the Nigerian government now faces mounting pressure to aggressively stabilize and scale output. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), passed in 2021 to overhaul the sector, has yet to fully deliver expected results. Analysts say improving security in the Niger Delta, enhancing operational transparency, and attracting fresh investment remain critical steps.

However, the gap between oil production and budget expectations looms large, and could define whether Nigeria navigates the 2025 fiscal year with relative stability or deeper financial strain.

Nvidia on Tuesday announced it expects to resume shipments of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China, signaling a pivotal shift in U.S. policy that could restore billions of dollars in business for the chip giant.

The move comes after a closed-door meeting between Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and President Donald Trump last week at the White House.

The H20 chips — a scaled-down variant of Nvidia’s powerful Hopper-based GPUs — had been designed specifically to comply with previous U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductors to China. However, those sales were halted in April after the Trump administration required Nvidia to obtain a special license for exports to Chinese clients.

In a statement Tuesday, Nvidia confirmed the White House has now assured the company that such licenses will be granted. “Nvidia hopes to start deliveries soon,” the company added. The announcement immediately sent Nvidia stock soaring, with shares climbing more than 4% to close at a record high of $170.70.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick later clarified that the administration reversed course after weighing the strategic benefit of keeping Chinese developers dependent on U.S. technology.

“We don’t sell them our best stuff, not our second best stuff, not even our third best,” Lutnick said in an interview with CNBC. “We want to keep having the Chinese use the American technology stack because they still rely upon it.”

The administration’s decision is seen as a dramatic turn in U.S.-China tech diplomacy. The Trump White House had previously clamped down on chip exports under a national security rationale, arguing that AI hardware could be used for military and surveillance purposes. Yet, under the new framework — which includes a broader rare earths agreement signed with China — Washington is permitting the limited return of U.S. chip exports, albeit with performance restrictions.

“The fourth one down, we want to keep China using it,” Lutnick explained, referring to the H20 chip’s lower-tier performance compared to Nvidia’s flagship AI chips like the H100, H200, and the next-generation Blackwell chips. He said this is part of a strategic move to “get Chinese developers addicted to the American technology stack,” preventing them from turning to domestic alternatives or rivals such as Huawei.

The policy shift followed a meeting last week between Trump and Huang, in which the Nvidia chief reportedly reaffirmed the company’s commitment to domestic job creation and American tech leadership. According to insiders, Trump signaled his support for the company’s efforts to remain competitive globally, especially as Chinese firms aggressively expand their AI capabilities.

Nvidia had previously said the halt in H20 sales would cost the company $8 billion in lost orders in the July quarter alone. The resumption of those shipments now restores a vital sales channel in what has historically been a key market. In 2023, Nvidia’s revenue from China made up nearly a fifth of its total data center sales.

Research analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities called the decision a “gamechanger.” In a note, he wrote: “Trump knows there is one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution and it’s Nvidia. Giving the green light to Jensen/Nvidia is all part of broader trade negotiations with China. Nvidia gets $30 billion+ annual business back.”

The H20 chip, first introduced in 2022, was engineered with fewer GPU cores and limited bandwidth — design tweaks aimed at ensuring the product did not run afoul of export rules imposed during the Biden administration. Despite the limitations, the chip has remained attractive to Chinese companies like Moonshot and DeepSeek, who have shown that even lower-spec chips are viable for competitive AI applications.

In fact, Nvidia is reportedly preparing to launch a new GPU for the Chinese market — tentatively called RTX PRO — designed to be “fully compliant” with the export control regime. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the chip during the same announcement, calling it ideal for smart factories and logistics.

Ray Wang, research director at Futurum Group, said the unexpected lifting of restrictions on the H20 is a clear win for Nvidia.

“This marks a significant and positive development that will enable Nvidia to reinforce its leadership in China,” Wang said. He added that the move, combined with new export-compliant AI chips, could be a “fresh growth catalyst” for the company in the coming quarters.

While the administration’s shift could provoke criticism from lawmakers who back tougher tech sanctions on China, the broader context involves recent de-escalation between Washington and Beijing. Last month, both sides agreed to a tentative trade framework that included easing some rare-earth and tech-related curbs — an indication that mutual dependencies in AI and clean energy supply chains are forcing a more pragmatic posture.