South Korea’s exports are expected to extend their record run of growth into a 16th consecutive month in September, powered by relentless demand for semiconductors used in artificial intelligence infrastructure, even as fewer working days are likely to make the headline growth rate appear weaker.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy were forecast to rise 62.0% from a year earlier, according to a Reuters poll of 18 economists. That would mark a slowdown from the 68.7% increase recorded in August and the weakest growth in four months.
The moderation, however, is largely a calendar effect rather than a clear indication that external demand is losing momentum.
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September has 21.5 working days this year, compared with 24 days in September last year, because the Chuseok holiday fell in September this year but in October last year.
The underlying export figures remain considerably stronger.
During the first 20 days of September, before the Chuseok holidays, exports jumped 78.3% from a year earlier to a record level. Semiconductor exports surged 259.4%, while exports measured on a working-day basis increased 89.8%.
“The boom in semiconductor exports will persist as increasing trends in AI hyper-scaler investments continue,” said An Ki-tae, an economist at NH Investment Securities.
That makes South Korea one of the clearest real-world indicators of the enormous capital spending cycle surrounding AI. The country is a major supplier of memory chips and other components required by data centers, and the acceleration in semiconductor exports suggests that spending by major technology companies remains a powerful source of industrial demand.
South Korea’s export performance has become increasingly tied to the global AI investment cycle. Exports have risen every month since June 2025 and have recorded double-digit annual growth since December. Growth reached 70.4% in June, the strongest pace in almost half a century.
The scale of the semiconductor increase is particularly notable. A 259.4% annual increase in chip exports during the first 20 days of September indicates that AI infrastructure spending is creating an unusually strong demand cycle for Korean technology suppliers.
The data also shows why monthly headline figures need to be interpreted alongside working-day adjustments. A 62% increase for the full month would represent a sharp deceleration from August, but the first 20 days suggest that the underlying momentum remained considerably stronger.
The concentration of export growth in semiconductors also carries a risk for the broader Korean economy. A large portion of the current expansion is being driven by a single sector benefiting from the AI investment boom, while the durability of that spending cycle remains an important question for manufacturers and investors.
There are already growing debates within the technology industry about the pace and sustainability of AI investment. Some industry leaders have called for a slower development of increasingly powerful AI systems because of safety concerns. For Korean chip manufacturers, however, the immediate demand signal remains strong.
The current cycle is also different from a traditional consumer electronics boom. Much of the demand is being generated by hyperscalers and data-center operators investing heavily in computing infrastructure. That means semiconductor demand is increasingly linked to capital expenditure decisions by a relatively concentrated group of global technology companies.
Imports were expected to rise 21.5% in September, slightly slower than the 22.4% increase recorded in August.
The much faster growth in exports is expected to produce a record monthly trade surplus of $38.15 billion, according to the Reuters poll, compared with $34.79 billion in August. That would provide another indication of how dramatically South Korea’s external trade position has improved alongside the semiconductor recovery.
The figures also reinforce the importance of chips to South Korea’s broader economic outlook. When semiconductor prices and shipments weaken, the country’s trade balance and industrial activity can deteriorate rapidly. When AI-driven demand strengthens, the impact can spread through exports, corporate earnings, investment and the currency.
The September numbers therefore offer more than another strong monthly export reading. They provide a real-time measure of whether the global AI infrastructure boom is still translating into physical demand for computing hardware.
The answer from the preliminary data is strongly positive.
The key question for the months ahead is whether that momentum can broaden beyond semiconductors and remain strong enough to support the wider Korean economy if AI-related capital spending eventually moderates.
South Korea is scheduled to release its official September trade figures on Thursday, October 1, at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).