The spectacular rally that followed SpaceX’s historic market debut is showing signs of fatigue, with the stock surrendering a large portion of its early gains as investors begin to weigh the company’s lofty valuation against its underlying financial performance.
Shares of Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company fell 3.6% on Thursday to $184.98, extending a sharp pullback from Tuesday’s intraday peak above $225. The decline has pushed the stock close to its five-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $181.71, a widely watched measure that reflects the average price paid by investors since trading began.
That means the typical investor who bought SpaceX shares in the open market after its blockbuster IPO is now sitting close to break-even, a remarkable reversal for a stock that only days ago appeared unstoppable. The development marks the first meaningful test of investor conviction since SpaceX became one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world.
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The stock initially surged from its $135 IPO price as investors rushed to gain exposure to Musk’s growing empire, propelling the company’s valuation toward the $3 trillion mark and briefly placing it ahead of some of the world’s largest technology firms. At its peak, the rally reflected a market willing to assign extraordinary value not only to SpaceX’s existing businesses but also to Musk’s reputation for creating transformative companies.
However, the recent sell-off indicates that enthusiasm is beginning to encounter a more traditional market force: valuation discipline.
Despite its dominance in reusable rockets and satellite internet through Starlink, SpaceX remains a company that is losing billions of dollars annually. The company reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion in 2025 and continued to post substantial losses during the first quarter of 2026. While Musk has projected that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, investors are increasingly scrutinizing the path required to reach such ambitious targets.
The pullback comes amid growing debate on Wall Street over whether the stock’s valuation can be supported by near-term fundamentals.
Many analysts argue that SpaceX is being valued less as a conventional aerospace company and more as a platform for multiple future growth opportunities. Investors are effectively assigning value to businesses that are still developing, including Starlink’s global broadband ambitions, artificial intelligence initiatives, data center infrastructure, government contracts, and potential future ventures that have yet to generate meaningful revenue.
That narrative helped drive the initial surge. The question now is whether it can sustain the valuation.
The decline is brewing concern because it has occurred despite continued retail investor enthusiasm. Thousands of individual investors gained access to the IPO through brokerage platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi. Although allocations were generally small, most retail participants received shares at the $135 offering price and therefore remain comfortably profitable.
For institutional investors and traders who entered after the debut, however, the picture is far less favorable.
The proximity of the stock to its VWAP suggests that much of the speculative money that chased the rally higher is no longer sitting on meaningful gains. Historically, such situations can create additional volatility as investors who entered during the excitement reassess their positions.
The shift in sentiment is also occurring as broader questions emerge about the sustainability of the AI-driven market boom that has propelled technology and infrastructure-related stocks to record levels. Investors are becoming increasingly selective, demanding clearer evidence that aggressive growth projections can translate into future earnings.
SpaceX’s recent acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion in stock further highlights the company’s ambition to expand beyond its traditional aerospace roots. While supporters view such moves as evidence of Musk’s long-term vision, skeptics argue they add execution risk to an already richly valued enterprise.
The market’s changing mood echoes concerns recently voiced by several prominent investors. Michael Burry, known for his successful bet against the U.S. housing market before the financial crisis, has publicly questioned whether SpaceX’s valuation can be justified. Others have noted that the company’s market capitalization rapidly surpassed the combined value of many established aerospace and industrial businesses despite generating only a fraction of their revenue.
Still, many believe the retreat should be viewed in context.
Even after the decline, SpaceX remains roughly 37% above its IPO price, a performance most newly listed companies would envy. The stock continues to command one of the largest valuations in global equity markets, reflecting investor belief that SpaceX could become a dominant force across multiple industries over the coming decade.
The recent pullback, therefore, appears less like a collapse and more like a reality check following one of the most explosive IPO debuts in market history.
What happens next will likely depend on whether SpaceX can provide evidence that its ambitious growth plans are translating into measurable financial progress. Investors have shown they are willing to pay a premium for Elon Musk’s vision. The challenge now is demonstrating that the company’s earnings power can eventually catch up with the extraordinary expectations embedded in its stock price.