Summary of Nigeria 2023 Presidential Election; Pollsters Got The Outcome Right On Low Turnout

In the final result called by INEC, Nigeria’s election umpire, here are the main summaries, from the 36 states of the federation and Abuja:

Tinubu of APC scored the highest votes; 8,805,420 votes and won 12 states (Rivers, Borno, Jigawa, Zamfara, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo,  Ogun).

Atiku (PDP) scored 6,984,290 votes; won 12 states (Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, Bauchi, Adamawa,  Taraba,  Osun, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa).

Obi (LP) got 6,093,962; won also 12 states (Edo, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, FCT, Plateau, Imo, Ebonyi, Nasarawa, Anambra, Abia, Enugu)

Kwankwaso (NNPP) won 1,496,671 votes and won a state – Kano State.

Using the results, Tinubu scored at least 25% of votes in 29 states; Atiku (21) and Obi (16). One needs at least 24 or 25 states (including Abuja). Based on that, Tinubu gets the call.

Pending a determination that the total canceled votes (many of them across the nation) will not change the outcome, INEC will do the trigger and make a call for Tinubu.

Yet, this is a really low-turnout election which is contrary to alternate data. In 2019, APC received 15,191,847 votes while PDP finished with 11,262,978 votes, giving at least 26 million to elect the president. In 2023, you have about 21 million voters. In 2015, the number was about 28.2 million.

The pollsters are correct: Obi wins with high turnout, but Tinubu wins with low turnout. This election, from official numbers, is low turnout but INEC has to explain how it lost at least 5 million voters in a cycle where more people registered, collected PVCs, etc, implying that voter suppression possibly changed the outcome.

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