Stock futures pushed higher Wednesday night as investors digested Nvidia’s latest quarterly beat, a development that appears to be restoring confidence in major technology stocks and providing a significant boost to the broader market.
Leading the pre-market rally, Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.4%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average also participated in the upswing, adding 110 points, or nearly 0.3%. This bullish activity follows a regular trading session where all three major U.S. stock indexes rose across the board, snapping a four-day slide. Despite these midweek gains, stocks remain in the red for the week due to the depth of the recent pullback in several growth sectors.
The primary catalyst for this turnaround is Nvidia, whose shares jumped nearly 5% in extended trading after the chipmaker released highly anticipated quarterly results that beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026): big discounts for early bird.
Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass opens registrations.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab: From Technical Design to Deployment (next edition begins Jan 24 2026).
Nvidia reported record revenue for the third quarter ended October 26, 2025, of $57.0 billion, up 22% from the previous quarter and up 62% from a year ago.
For the quarter, GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were 73.4% and 73.6%, respectively, while GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were both $1.30.
Beyond the headline numbers, the market-moving company offered a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter sales forecast. CEO Jensen Huang explicitly addressed concerns regarding product transitions, stating that demand for the company’s current-generation Blackwell chips is “off the charts.”
Nvidia’s upbeat guidance has likely lifted investor sentiment around the broader AI trade, which had weakened in recent sessions amid growing fears regarding elevated valuations, debt financing, and potential chip depreciation. The robust results boosted a slew of stocks across the AI ecosystem in the after-hours session, lifting chipmakers like Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, as well as power infrastructure companies such as Eaton.
However, analysts remain cautious about the future trajectory; David Russell, TradeStation’s global head of market strategy, noted that while Nvidia’s numbers remain extremely strong, there are inevitable questions regarding whether the company has already reached its high-water mark in terms of growth and market share.
Fed Divide and the “Higher for Longer” Threat
While the corporate outlook brightened, the macroeconomic landscape became more complex following the release of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes on Wednesday afternoon. The documents revealed disagreements between Fed officials over whether a slowing labor market or persistent inflation posed the bigger threat to the U.S. economy.
This divide is reflected in their outlook for the upcoming December decision, with many officials calling for no more interest rate cuts this year. Consequently, traders are drastically repricing their expectations; per the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now only a 33% likelihood that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point in December, a figure significantly lower than bets placed just a month ago.
Why Delayed Payrolls Spark Bond Volatility
Investors will be looking for clarity on the macroeconomic front on Thursday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September nonfarm payrolls data. This release carries significantly higher risk for the bond market than a standard report due to the “data fog” created by the U.S. government shutdown.
The delay has introduced a unique mechanism for volatility known as the “Stale Data” Paradox. Because the September data is being released in late November, traders must decide in real-time whether the numbers reflect the current economy or a past reality that no longer exists. This creates an asymmetric risk profile for bond yields:
- The “Old News” Discount: If the report shows surprisingly strong job growth, bond bears may argue the data is “stale”—a snapshot of the economy before recent cooling trends took hold. This could lead to a muted reaction where yields do not rise as much as the headline number would typically warrant, confusing algorithmic trading models.
- The “Confirmation” Trap: Conversely, if the data is weak, the market is likely to treat it as highly relevant confirmation of the “slowing labor market” narrative cited by dovish Fed officials in the minutes. This would validate fears of a recessionary trend, potentially triggering a violent rally in Treasuries (sending yields sharply lower) as traders aggressively price back in a December rate cut.
- Liquidity Gaps: The uncertainty over how the Fed will weight this “backlogged” data has thinned liquidity in the Treasury market. With fewer market makers willing to commit capital ahead of such an ambiguous print, the bid-ask spreads have widened. This means that when the number hits, even a small surprise could cause exaggerated price swings (gaps) as orders chase a lack of liquidity.
This critical economic print will likely serve as the next major test for a market currently caught between robust tech earnings and a potentially stubborn Federal Reserve.