They say in politics, if you are complaining, it means you are losing. Nurudeen Adeyemi is not happy with the polls I shared yesterday. But unlike others, Nurudeen makes his point without attacking people. While you may not agree with him, he symbolizes the spirit of knowledge creation, assimilation and dissemination. Many start by reminding all that I am an Igbo (the most blessed of all nations) – and Biafran, just to diminish an analysis on a poll I did not conduct.
Read Nurudeen: “Peter Obi or Labour party doesn’t have any state under their control then they need people who can deliver bloc votes to win the election. For example, Senator Bukola Saraki would deliver bloc votes for Atiku Abubakar in Kwara State, in which Atiku will poll 25% votes in Kwara State. Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia will deliver bloc votes for Tinubu in Benue State, in which, Tinubu will poll 25% votes in Benue State. Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia is the person leading the Tinubu/Shettima Grassroots Independent Campaign Council in Benue State, also the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Benue State. Who will deliver bloc votes for Peter Obi in the North Central, the Church or organic supporters? Anyway, conducting an election poll survey through mobile phones is not reliable in Nigeria.”
With this comment from Nurudeen, I can conclude that he has not gotten the memo. Bukola Saraki will deliver a vote he could not deliver to himself to win an election. Rev. Fr. Hyacinth will deliver more votes than the Catholic Church for example. But those are distractions.
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This election will be won by a candidate that can make his case before Nigerians because bloc votes are diminished since mobile internet has removed information asymmetry which made bloc voting possible in the past. Block voting worked because the citizens knew nothing unless what one man told them. Today, they can get an independent understanding of issues via Facebook, WhatsApp, etc.
But in 2023, Nigeria will have the first mobile internet era election. This is the first app utility-anchored national election. I am not arguing that decades-old political structures are not important, my point is that disintermediation (cutting out intermediaries) is evident, and general voters have access to more information about candidates now, to make decisions independently, out of the influence of political bundlers and brokers.
Of course, the best poll is the election. So, plan to vote for your candidate. Polls mean nothing; they only provide guidance, but are not physics.
Comment on Feed
Comment: Prof. I am highly impressed with your analysis I wish we Nigerian on social platforms can coordinate ourselves in such a analytical manner. Kudos to you. But my concern and observation is about the internet information you referenced, even though we have high rise of people using smart phones in Nigeria of recent in my opinion less than 30% of voters in Nigeria uses smart phones because the moment you move out of major cities in each state there’s drastic decrease in internet access and even in the cities we have a lot of people using ordinary cell phones and not smart phones which sum up the fact that the online polls may just sum up the opinion of less than 50% likely voters in the country.
My Response: You are correct on that. My point is that unlike in the past when it was only the retired teacher-turned-politician or iman/reverend, or eze/emir/oba/king, etc pushing that info to the citizens, today, it is now thousands (sons, daughters, etc who are in cities but can call parents in rural areas) doing same. Who will you believe? The bloc buyer or your child? So, the competition is high because the local bloc buyer has to win not just the rural woman but overcome the other voice from her son. And that communication does not need internet – every village has someone who has a phone.
Comment 1R: Prof. I called my Mum on the phone 2months ago, in the process of asking how she was doing I overheard a voice in the background and I asked who the person was, she told me it was someone from my compound too, and she went ahead to tell me that both of them were going for a party meeting (which I know my Mum doesn’t go for such before). And I asked her which party, she told me (I wouldn’t mention the name of the party here) I told her to go but when she comes back she must give me feedback on what happened there. The next day I called her to hear the outcome of the meeting she went to, and she told me that they promised to give them money on the condition that they must give them their voters card in exchange for the cash. I respectfully warned my Mum never to attend that meeting again, I enlightend her on the consequences of given them her voters card. After explaining to her she became very angry. Then I also reached out to some of my friends in the village and asked if they’re aware of the voters card buying going on in the village. They told me that they’ve also told their parents and siblings about it. One of them even told me he threatened never to send his Mum money again if she gives them her PVC.
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The only reality that exists for APC and Tinubu supporters is the one they created themselves, any independent data that does not back them is obviously untrue, in their opinion of course.
They detest data, because it’s inaccurate; they do not like statistics, because their candidate believes it’s irrelevant; but the irony? They revel in large but uncounted crowds! You hate data that can be referenced, simply because it doesn’t favour you, but you like crowds. A sort of confusing paradox.
If you point out to them that there are new set of voters who never voted before, they dismiss it; if you tell them that things are changing, they cancel you. All they want and wish is that ‘stakeholders’ and ‘influential persons’ are the ones to determine how the rest of the millions vote…
What sort of decent and ethical people hedge their winning on the ignorance and lack of information on the side of the voters? This is how you know hearts that are full of evil, because ethical people don’t take advantage of the weak, neither do they prevent the uninformed from receiving information. You cannot debate with creatures who are happy that their voters don’t have access to internet, that’s quite demeaning.
This election is revealing a lot.