Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the parent company of Truth Social, revealed an exclusive partnership with Crypto.com’s U.S.-registered derivatives arm, Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), to launch Truth Predict—the world’s first social media-integrated prediction market platform.
This move embeds federally compliant event contracts directly into the Truth Social app, allowing users to trade on outcomes in politics, economics, finance, sports, and more, while fostering social discussions around predictions.
Features of Truth Predict Trading Contracts
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Users can buy and sell prediction contracts on real-time events, such as election results, interest rate changes, commodity prices (e.g., gold or oil), and major sports leagues. Prices update live, enabling instant reactions to news.
Truth Social and Truth+ users earn “Truth gems” through platform interactions (e.g., posting, streaming). These can be converted to Crypto.com’s native Cronos (CRO) token for purchasing contracts. TMTG already holds nearly 700 million CRO tokens as part of this ecosystem.
Unlike standalone platforms, Truth Predict blends betting with community engagement—users can debate and share forecasts in-app, turning “free speech into actionable foresight,” per TMTG CEO Devin Nunes.
Limited rollout for select U.S. users to test functionality and CRO conversions. Nationwide availability via CDNA’s CFTC-regulated exchange. Rollout to international markets after regulatory approvals.
This timeline positions Truth Predict to capitalize on the post-2024 election surge in prediction markets, where competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi hit $1.44 billion in monthly volume.
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek called prediction markets a “multi-deca-billion dollar industry” and praised the tie-up for merging social media’s community-driven “truth-seeking” with financial tools.
The partnership builds on TMTG’s prior CRO integration for rewards and aligns with the Trump administration’s push for U.S. leadership in crypto and digital banking. With Truth Social’s 6.3 million users and TMTG’s $3 billion+ in assets, this could drive mass adoption, though some lawmakers have flagged potential conflicts due to the Trump family’s crypto interests.
This launch cements Truth Social’s evolution from a niche social app to a hybrid social-finance hub, potentially reshaping how everyday users engage with markets.
A prediction market is a financial marketplace where participants buy and sell contracts whose final payout depends on the outcome of a future event. Think of it as betting with prices that reflect collective probability.
Instead of fixed odds like traditional sportsbooks, prices float freely based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability estimate. Contract price = Market’s estimated % chance the event will happen.
A simple example event: “Will Donald Trump win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election?” Contract Type YES $0.62, 62% chance Trump wins. NO $0.38 38% chance he loses. Each contract pays $1 if correct, $0 if wrong.
You can buy YES at $0.62 ? If Trump wins, you get $1 ? Profit $0.38. You can buy NO at $0.38 ? If he loses, you get $1 ? Profit $0.62. Prices adjust instantly as news breaks, new polls drop, or traders react.
Automatic at event resolution via oracle or regulator. Prediction Markets are so Accurate because they aggregate dispersed information better than polls or experts.The “Wisdom of Crowds” + Incentives = AccuracyFactor
Traders bet real money ? only confident forecasts survive. Insiders, analysts, enthusiasts all contribute unique info. Prices react faster than polls (e.g., to leaks, debates). Wrong beliefs lose money ? market punishes bias.
Intrade (2008–2012) predicted Obama’s win within 1% in key states. Polymarket in 2024 Called Trump’s victory weeks before polls, with $3.7B+ volume. Kalshi beat Nate Silver in 2024 Senate races.
Information edge you know a scandal is about to break ? buy NO contracts early ? profit when price crashes. One market says 70% chance, another says 55% ? buy low, sell high across platforms.
A campaign manager buys NO on their candidate to offset reputational risk. Bet on longshots (e.g., “Will Taylor Swift run for office?” at $0.02). Social layer: debate + bet in same feed. Example Flow: Post: “Kamala will NOT run in 2028”. Attach a NO contract at $0.75
Friends buy/sell in comments. Earn gems ? convert to CRO ? trade more. This turns conversation into capital. Whales can pump prices temporarily. Gamified interface may encourage over-trading.
Only CFTC-approved platforms can offer event contracts to U.S. users. Kalshi (2023): First to win full approval. Crypto.com Derivatives now second ? enables Truth Predict. Companies use internal markets to predict sales. Reporters check markets before publishing odds.
Governments consider markets for disaster prep. Turns passive scrolling into active forecasting. Trade contracts on future events Price = Probability, $0.01 ? 1%, $0.99 ? 99% often beats polls/experts.
Social media + betting + crypto rewards. Mass adoption via apps, Web3, AI oracles. Prediction markets turn opinions into investments—and collective greed into collective intelligence.
With Truth Social + Crypto.com, we’re about to see 6 million+ users go from posting hot takes to putting money behind them—potentially creating the most liquid, social, and transparent forecasting engine the world has ever seen.