The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the US inflation rate rose to 3.7% in August, the highest level since September 2008. This was higher than the consensus forecast of 3.6% and reflects the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the supply and demand of goods and services.
The main drivers of inflation in August were energy, transportation, and food prices. Energy prices increased by 25% year-over-year, with gasoline prices surging by 42.7%. Transportation services rose by 9.4%, as airfares, car rentals, and public transportation costs soared due to pent-up travel demand and limited availability. Food prices climbed by 3.7%, with both food at home and food away from home rising at the fastest pace since 2008.
The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, also rose to 4% in August, the highest level since November 1991. This indicates that inflationary pressures are not only coming from temporary factors, but also from more persistent sources such as housing, health care, and education.
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The Federal Reserve has maintained that the current spike in inflation is transitory and will subside as the economy recovers from the pandemic shock. However, some economists and market participants are concerned that inflation could become more entrenched and force the Fed to tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected.
The latest CPI report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 13, 2023, showed that inflation rose 0.6% in August, its biggest monthly gain of 2023. The inflation gauge rose 3.7% from a year ago, an increase from July’s 3.2% rate, but well below the June 2022 peak of 9.1%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, climbed 4.3% in August over the last 12 months after rising 4.7% in July.
The main driver of the August CPI increase was energy prices, which surged 5.6% on the month, including a 10.6% jump in gasoline prices. This reflected the impact of Hurricane Ida, which disrupted oil production and refining in the Gulf Coast region, as well as global supply and demand imbalances.
Other categories that contributed to the CPI rise were transportation services (up 2%), airfares (up 4.9%), shelter (up 0.3%), and medical care services (up 0.5%). On the other hand, some categories that moderated the CPI increase were used cars and trucks (down 1.2%), apparel (down 0.1%), and recreation (down 0.1%).
The August CPI report was in line with market expectations and did not cause much reaction in the financial markets. However, it did raise some questions about the outlook for inflation and monetary policy in the US.
The Federal Reserve, which sets the benchmark interest rate and influences borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, has a dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and price stability. The Fed has a long-run inflation target of 2%, but it has recently adopted a flexible average inflation targeting framework, which means that it will tolerate inflation moderately above 2% for some time to achieve its employment goals.
The Fed has maintained that the current inflation surge is largely transitory, driven by temporary factors such as supply chain disruptions, base effects, and pent-up demand following the pandemic-induced lockdowns. The Fed expects inflation to moderate as these factors fade and supply and demand conditions normalize.
However, some economists and market participants are concerned that inflation may prove to be more persistent than expected, especially if wage pressures intensify due to labor shortages and if consumer expectations of future inflation rise. They argue that the Fed may need to tighten its monetary policy sooner than anticipated to prevent inflation from getting out of control and eroding the purchasing power of consumers.
The Fed has signaled that it will start tapering its monthly asset purchases, which have been supporting the economic recovery by injecting liquidity into the financial system, later this year or early next year. The Fed has also indicated that it will not raise its interest rate until it sees substantial further progress toward its employment and inflation goals.
The August CPI report is unlikely to change the Fed’s plans for tapering, but it may have some implications for its interest rate outlook. The Fed’s latest projections, released in June 2023, showed that most Fed officials expected two interest rate hikes in 2023 and two more in 2024, bringing the federal funds rate to 1.5-1.75% by the end of 2024.
However, some analysts believe that the Fed may revise its projections upward at its next meeting on September 21-22, reflecting stronger economic growth and higher inflation than previously anticipated. They also suggest that the Fed may hike its interest rate three times in 2023 and three more times in 2024, bringing the federal funds rate to 2-2.25% by the end of 2024.
The future path of inflation and interest rates will depend on how the economy evolves in the coming months amid various uncertainties such as the COVID-19 delta variant, fiscal policy developments, geopolitical tensions, and natural disasters. Consumers and businesses should monitor these developments closely and adjust their spending and saving decisions accordingly.
The Fed is expected to announce its plans for tapering its monthly bond purchases at its next meeting in November, which could signal the beginning of the end of its ultra-accommodative stance. The Fed has also said that it will not raise its benchmark interest rate until it sees substantial further progress on its goals of maximum employment and stable inflation.
The implications of higher inflation for consumers, businesses, and investors are significant. Higher inflation erodes the purchasing power of money and reduces the real value of wages, savings, and debt. Higher inflation also increases the uncertainty and volatility in the economy and financial markets, as it affects the expectations and behavior of economic agents.
The challenge for policymakers is to balance the need to support the economic recovery with the need to contain inflationary pressures. The challenge for consumers, businesses, and investors is to adapt to a changing environment and protect themselves from the risks and opportunities posed by higher inflation.