A question: “In the US elections yesterday, the Democrats won big. What is your comment as it relates to investments and opportunities in the US, and the world?”
Response: My response remains anchored on a thesis I have long held: the global economy is still in recovery mode from the Covid-19 perturbation, and it will take at least a decade for equilibrium to return. No politician, no matter how bold, can fix a disequilibrium of this magnitude overnight. What we are witnessing across democracies is not just about parties winning or losing; it is about citizens shopping for leaders who can restore balance in an economic architecture that seems designed to favour only a few.
Look at the data: rent is high, housing prices are high, groceries are high, and when the cost of basic living remains stubbornly elevated, voters instinctively look for new ideas, as in US. The Republicans could not produce magic; the Democrats will also find that structural economic issues are not easily legislated away. This is not about who is better; it is about who can re-engineer an economy where one company (Nvidia) can have a market capitalization comparable to the GDP of an entire continent. The world’s expanding GDP is enriching a narrow layer of society, leaving most people out of the prosperity equation. It is an economic immorality when you see how concentrated wealth has become!
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Decades ago in Nigeria, a primary school certificate holder could secure a job, raise a family, and build a country home. Today, that is a mirage. Similarly, in the United States, many young graduates are unemployed or underemployed even as corporate profits soar. Productivity has risen, but wages and opportunities have not. The ladder of economic mobility is missing a few rungs, and many are struggling to climb.
So, in countries where elections are free and fair, citizens will continue to experiment by voting out incumbents and testing new political models. Where democracy is constrained, such as in parts of Africa and Asia, the youth will demand their own renewal, sometimes through protests or social movements, as have seen in Thailand, Kenya, and Nigeria.
In summary, it will increasingly become harder for politicians to keep their jobs in nations where democracy still works. The economic system is not working for MOST people. Inequality has scaled across the globe, and the imbalance that Covid exposed has not been corrected. Until we fix that, voters will keep shopping for leaders, for hope, and for a new deal that truly works for humanity. My prediction is that Democrats will win White House in 2028, not because of a better idea, but largely because whatever anyone is doing is not working for most people.
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