Stellar Lumens (XLM) is facing increasing outflows, which could put downward pressure on its price. As of August 1, 2025, XLM is trading at approximately $0.3973 USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of $556,960,128, down 2.1% in the last 24 hours and 10.6% over the past week.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): The CMF indicator is declining and currently at a three-week low, signaling rising outflows. While still in positive territory, it’s close to crossing into negative, which would indicate outflows surpassing inflows, potentially pushing XLM’s price lower. A drop below zero could confirm a bearish phase, with support levels at $0.393, $0.41, or even $0.35 if selling pressure persists.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure the accumulation and distribution of a financial asset, like a cryptocurrency or stock, over a specific period. It helps traders assess whether buying or selling pressure is dominating by combining price and volume data.
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Developed by Marc Chaikin, CMF is particularly useful for identifying trends in money flow, which can signal potential price movements.How CMF WorksCMF calculates the strength of money flowing into or out of an asset by analyzing the relationship between the closing price and the high-low range, weighted by trading volume. It’s typically calculated over a 20-day or 21-day period, though other timeframes can be used.
XLM is struggling to break the $0.50 resistance level, with recent consolidation around $0.45 after a 7% drop in 24 hours as of July 20, 2025. The Parabolic SAR above the candlesticks and a bearish MACD crossover suggest growing downward momentum. However, a Golden Cross and RSI above 50 indicate some lingering bullish sentiment, suggesting a potential reversal if inflows recover.
XLM is currently testing support around $0.424. A failure to hold could see it drop to $0.393 or lower to $0.35, representing a potential 40% decline from recent highs of $0.47. After a 97% surge earlier in July 2025, XLM’s gains are at risk of being erased due to these outflows and weakening momentum. The broader crypto market’s performance will significantly influence XLM’s recovery, as it often correlates with market trends.
Despite the bearish pressure, partnerships with major players like Visa, MoneyGram, and Franklin Templeton, along with Stellar’s Soroban smart contract integration, bolster its long-term fundamentals. Analyst Peter Brandt has highlighted a bullish chart pattern, suggesting XLM could reach $7.20 if it breaks key resistance levels like $1.
The increasing outflows and failure to breach $0.50 indicate a risk of further declines. A break below $0.41 could lead to a deeper correction toward $0.35, especially if the CMF turns negative or broader market sentiment worsens. A recovery in inflows or a broader altcoin rally could push XLM back toward $0.50–$0.56. A decisive close above $0.445 would invalidate the bearish thesis in the short term.
Long-term predictions remain optimistic, with some analysts forecasting $1–$1.29 by the end of 2025 and up to $6.19 by 2030, driven by adoption in cross-border payments. XLM’s price is at risk due to increasing outflows and weakening technical indicators, with key support levels at $0.41 and $0.35 under threat. However, Stellar’s strong fundamentals, including partnerships and network growth, suggest potential for recovery if market conditions improve.
Investors should monitor CMF, RSI, and broader market trends closely, as these will dictate XLM’s near-term trajectory. For a cautious approach, consider waiting for a confirmed breakout above $0.50 or accumulation at lower support levels like $0.24–$0.25.