Nigeria’s petrol import bill plunged to N1.76 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, a sharp 54% drop from N3.81 trillion recorded in the same period last year, according to new foreign trade data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
This also represents a 47% decline compared to Q4 2024, when the country spent N3.3 trillion on petrol imports.
The steep fall marks a significant break from Nigeria’s multi-year pattern of rising dependence on foreign refined petrol and points to a growing shift driven by increased domestic supply from the Dangote Refinery, which has gained momentum this year.
Industry players say the downward trend is largely the result of the Dangote Refinery’s aggressive pricing strategy. Since beginning local distribution, the refinery has offered petrol at prices that are significantly cheaper than imported fuel—drawing strong interest from independent and major marketers nationwide. In early 2025, the pump price of petrol dropped to as low as N860 per liter in Lagos, down from over N1,000 previously, marking the first major retail relief in nearly a year.
Dangote’s competitive pricing has made his refinery a more attractive alternative to importation. Marketers are now sourcing directly from the local refinery in increasing numbers, encouraged by lower logistics costs and reduced foreign exchange exposure. The refinery, currently running at around 85% of its 650,000 barrels per day capacity, has become a central pillar in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain.
The NBS data confirms a structural shift. For the first time in years, Nigeria’s Q1 petrol import figures have reversed an upward trend. Between Q1 2020 and Q1 2024, the country’s fuel import bill more than quadrupled—from N732 billion to N3.81 trillion. The 2025 Q1 figure of N1.76 trillion brings Nigeria back to pre-2022 import levels, signaling that domestic refining is now beginning to meaningfully displace imported petrol.
However, there are growing concerns that the gains made could be short-lived. Oil prices have shown signs of a rebound in recent weeks, raising fears that a further surge could push up Dangote’s production costs. Since the refinery imports crude at international prices but sells fuel in the domestic market, any uptick in global oil prices could force it to raise pump prices—diminishing its competitive edge over imports.
A similar challenge had already emerged earlier this year when Dangote Industries briefly halted sales in naira due to the mismatch between the dollar-denominated cost of crude and the local currency revenue it received. Although the government later intervened to resolve the crude-for-naira impasse, the episode highlighted the refinery’s vulnerability to external price shocks.
Despite these concerns, the Dangote Refinery continues to shape Nigeria’s fuel supply landscape. In addition to its impact on retail pricing and import volumes, the NBS data also revealed that petrol still accounted for N89.18 billion—or 44.51%—of Nigeria’s imports from ECOWAS countries in Q1 2025. This indicates that while domestic production is on the rise, regional trade remains important in closing residual supply gaps.
Petrol also made up 41.86% of Nigeria’s trade inflows from the broader West African region and contributed 11.63% of total imports from the African continent. Other petroleum-based products such as gas oil (N23.15 billion) and petroleum bitumen (N20.58 billion) also ranked high among imports, reflecting continued reliance on foreign supply for a range of refined outputs.
The broader implication of the report is that Nigeria is entering a period of transition in its downstream sector. After decades of complete dependence on imported refined products, the country is beginning to reap the benefits of domestic refining. The challenge, however, lies in sustaining this progress amid the volatility of the global oil market and the currency pressures that continue to weigh on local refiners.
As the Dangote Refinery continues to scale up and other modular refineries come onstream, Nigeria could yet reduce its fuel import burden further. But for now, the outlook remains delicately balanced between emerging self-sufficiency and the persistent risks posed by external economic forces.