As Nigeria prepares for the 2027 general elections, one state to watch closely is Oyo. The race for governor is already gaining momentum, and what’s emerging is more than just political posturing. It’s a contest shaped by messages, alliances, and shared goals that are forming long before any ballots are cast.
Our analysis of recent activities of stakeholders, examining how often political actors and groups are mentioned together in public discussions gives us a new perspective. It tells us who is at the center of these conversations, who is working together, and what themes are driving the momentum.
At the center of this picture is a message, not a person or party. “Unseat PDP” has become the most talked-about theme among various groups and individuals. It reflects a growing effort by different stakeholders to focus public attention on removing the ruling People’s Democratic Party from office in Oyo State.
This is more than just a slogan. It appears to be the common thread connecting different opposition groups, campaigners, and political voices. When a message like this appears so frequently and in connection with so many different players, it becomes a powerful organizing tool. It provides clarity, focus, and a sense of shared direction.
This kind of clarity matters. In politics, as in business, success often depends on how well a message resonates and how many people rally behind it. Right now, “Unseat PDP” is serving as the main point of agreement for a diverse set of actors. That gives it real power.
Another important message gaining ground is the “Oke-Ogun Agenda.” While it is not as widely connected as “Unseat PDP,” it represents something significant. Oke-Ogun is a region in Oyo State that has historically played a quieter role in state politics. The emergence of this message suggests that people in that region are becoming more politically organized and assertive.
Exhibit 1: Activities and actors’ connectivity
The growing attention to Oke-Ogun may point to a desire for greater political inclusion or even a push to support a candidate from that area. Either way, it shows that regional voices are starting to matter more in the bigger picture.
What’s also worth noting is who is not yet at the center of these conversations. Most of the political figures, party leaders, and advocacy groups included in the data appear only on the margins. Each is linked to only a small number of others and does not seem to be playing a key role in shaping the central narrative of the race.
This includes Governor Seyi Makinde, the current officeholder. While his position gives him visibility, he does not appear to be a major part of the ongoing discussion around the future of the state’s leadership, at least not yet. That could be a sign of caution on his part, or it could reflect a deliberate strategy to stay above the early noise of campaign season.
The same goes for many members of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the main opposition party. There are several groups aligned with the APC, but none of them is currently taking the lead in framing the conversation or building alliances around a clear message. This may be a missed opportunity. When groups remain fragmented and disconnected from one another, it becomes harder to drive momentum or persuade undecided voters.
Exhibit 2: Activities and actors’ prestige position
So what does this all mean for political leaders, campaigners, and citizens watching the 2027 race unfold?
First, it shows the importance of having a strong and simple message. The message to remove the PDP from power is clear and easy to understand. That kind of clarity makes it easier to bring people together.
Second, it highlights the value of unity. A single, widely shared goal is more powerful than several small efforts moving in different directions. For the opposition to succeed, it will need to stay focused and work together around a common vision. Third, it suggests that regional voices are becoming more influential. Political campaigns that want to win will need to listen carefully to these voices and find ways to include them in broader state-wide plans.
Lastly, for those currently on the sidelines of the discussion, there is still time to get involved. But doing so will require more than just statements or press releases. It will require joining the conversation that is already shaping the race and contributing something meaningful to it.
The 2027 election in Oyo will not be decided on election day alone. It is already being shaped by the way people talk about the future, the messages they choose to rally around, and the alliances they are building today. For those who want to lead, now is the time to step into that conversation with purpose and clarity.
