America’s Economic Paradox: Growth Without Jobs

Question: How do you see the U.S. market, and what is the new normal from an African perspective?

My Response: The new normal is that the U.S. economic architecture is being redesigned, and what we are witnessing is not a single adjustment but a series of unfolding “new normals” that will play out over the next few years. I saw a similar pattern when Britain exited the European Union. The country cycled through leaders, each searching for a magic wand. None appeared because structural redesigns do not yield instant solutions.

So, what is happening in the United States? America is now experiencing jobless growth. If you track average monthly job creation since 2021, the trajectory is unmistakable: from the exuberant highs of nearly 600,000 jobs per month to fewer than 100,000. Last month, the U.S. added just 64,000 jobs. Yet, unemployment rates remain relatively low, not because the economy is firing on all cylinders, but partly because immigration has slowed, reducing new entrants into the labor force. That demographic slowdown is masking a deeper structural shift.

President Trump understands this reality. Tariffs became one lever to stimulate domestic production. But tariffs alone cannot bridge a fundamental cost gap where a worker in Cambodia earns $10 a day, making relocation to Los Angeles economically unattractive even with a 100% tariff. The Federal Reserve, bound by its dual mandate of employment and price stability, watches this paradox unfold: low unemployment on paper, but slowing job creation beneath the surface.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is euphoric. Equity markets rally, corporate profits rise, and capital flows remain strong. But for the newly graduated American seeking a first job, the experience feels very different. Somewhere between AI-driven productivity gains, corporate efficiency pushes, and shifting demographics lies an unresolved equation.

Many blame AI for the disappearance of entry-level roles. But the truth is more nuanced. The U.S. economy was already losing momentum before AI adoption accelerated following ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022. AI did not create the imbalance; it simply amplified it. And no one has yet figured out how to unwind this paralysis without trade-offs.

From an African perspective, I drop this Igbo proverb: “onye na-amaghi ebe mmiri bidoro mawa ya, agaghi ama ebe o kwusiri” [he who does not know where the rain began to beat him cannot know where it will stop]. Ask an Igbo elder around you to explain that because as Mazi Chinua Achebe noted, proverbs are the palm oil with which words are eaten.

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