U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that the United States was not in danger of slipping into recession in 2026, arguing that Americans would soon experience the full gains of the Trump administration’s economic agenda as more provisions of its flagship fiscal package take effect.
In a wide-ranging interview on NBC News’ Meet the Press, Bessent projected confidence about the economy’s direction despite lingering worries over inflation, sluggish housing activity, and the political gridlock that recently froze Washington for more than six weeks.
“I am very, very optimistic on 2026,” he said. “We have set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy.”
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His optimism centers on the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act — the GOP’s sweeping spending package — whose remaining provisions continue to roll out. The law locks in President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanently and layers additional incentives on top of that structure. It adds a senior “bonus” to offset Social Security taxes, expands the state and local tax deduction, and creates tax breaks on tip income, overtime pay, and auto loans.
Bessent said the economic effects of these components have not yet been fully felt, but will begin showing up in household finances and business investment over the next year.
He also said health-care costs are expected to become more affordable, noting that the administration would have “more news” on that later this week.
A Tension Point: Health-Care Subsidies Still Uncertain
Even as Bessent pledged relief ahead, millions of Americans are bracing for higher health-care expenses due to the congressional impasse over extending enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act marketplace. Lawmakers have not resolved the issue, meaning many households may see their premiums jump.
Bessent acknowledged that parts of the economy remain under strain, particularly housing and other sectors heavily shaped by interest-rate movements. He said the services sector continues to exert upward pressure on inflation, but argued that declining energy prices would help slow price increases in the near term.
Adding to the uncertainty, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on Sunday that fourth-quarter economic data could show weakness because of the 43-day government shutdown. The stalemate — the longest in U.S. history — disrupted federal operations, delayed projects, and added another layer of instability to the economic outlook.
Public Sentiment Cuts Across Income Lines
Despite the administration’s upbeat message, public dissatisfaction remains widespread. A recent NBC News poll found that around two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration has fallen short on handling the economy and cost of living.
Perceptions vary sharply by income. JPMorgan’s latest Cost of Living Survey reported that high-income respondents rated their economic confidence at an average of 6.2 out of 10, with more than half scoring the outlook between 7 and 10. Low-income consumers, however, gave an average rating of 4.4, highlighting the imbalance in how Americans are experiencing inflation, housing costs, and the effects of tighter financial conditions.
However, Bessent’s argument rests on the idea that the Trump administration’s mix of permanent tax cuts, supply-side incentives, and a trade policy reshaped around “America First” priorities will yield stronger, sustainable growth by 2026 without driving a new burst of inflation.
But the short-term picture remains uneven. Capital-intensive sectors are cooling, borrowing remains expensive for homebuyers and small businesses, and the federal government is still processing the financial and logistical fallout of the shutdown.
The administration maintains that as the final elements of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act filter through the economy, the effects will accumulate — eventually delivering the stronger growth Bessent predicts. Whether Americans feel that improvement, however, remains an open question, and one likely to shape the economic narrative through 2025.