Bitcoin has come under renewed pressure this week, triggering a wave of bearish sentiment among traders and investors as the leading cryptocurrency slipped below key support levels.
The crypto asset fell below the $76,000 mark for the first time in a week, briefly touching $75,666 before staging a modest rebound. At the time of writing this report, Bitcoin is trading at $77,101.
Despite the bounce, Bitcoin continues to trade within a relatively tight range of $74,000 to $80,000, following a breakout from a three-month consolidation earlier this month.
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Market uncertainty has intensified after a widely followed analyst, MerlijnTrader, in a post onX, projected a potential drop toward $30,000 before the end of the year.
He wrote,
“THREE WORDS. THREE CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS. Sell in May. But only in mid-term election years. 2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%.
“2026: mid-term year. -60.73% is pointing to $30K. May is approaching. The chart doesn’t lie. The calendar doesn’t either.”
The forecast is based on a recurring historical pattern tied to U.S. midterm election cycles, during which Bitcoin has previously recorded drawdowns exceeding 60% including declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Applying a similar trajectory to current price levels suggests a possible 60.73% correction from around $77,000.
This outlook has added weight to skepticism surrounding bullish predictions that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2026.
Prominent figures such as Tim Draper and Tom Lee have maintained their aggressive price targets despite the recent downturn, which has already seen Bitcoin fall roughly 40% from its October 2025 peak of about $126,000.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has taken a more cautious stance, dismissing such projections and warning that Bitcoin may still be in a downtrend.
He pointed to a developing bear flag pattern on the daily chart, suggesting that the current price action reflects continuation rather than a reversal.
Adding to the complexity, institutional activity continues to play a major role in Bitcoin’s price movements. According to Matt Hougan, corporate accumulation particularly by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has been the single largest driver behind Bitcoin’s recent 20% rebound from its February lows.
Over an eight-week period, Strategy reportedly acquired $7.2 billion worth of Bitcoin, pushing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC and surpassing BlackRock in total exposure.
The company’s aggressive buying strategy is largely funded through its perpetual preferred stock offering, STRC, which provides a steady stream of capital for continued Bitcoin purchases. Analysts expect this accumulation trend to persist in the near term.
Meanwhile, technical analysts warn that Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment. Analyst Sjuul noted that the cryptocurrency is currently testing a critical resistance level around $80,000.
This zone represents both the upper boundary of a rising channel and a historically significant support level dating back to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Outlook
Bitcoin now stands at a pivotal crossroads, with both bullish and bearish forces shaping its near-term trajectory.
A decisive break above the $80,000 resistance could revive momentum and strengthen the case for a broader recovery.
However, failure to reclaim this level may reinforce bearish patterns and increase the likelihood of deeper corrections, potentially aligning with historical midterm cycle drawdowns.
While institutional demand led by Strategy and ETF inflows continues to provide underlying support, macroeconomic uncertainty and technical resistance remain significant hurdles.