Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to a two-week low of $108,865 on Thursday, weighed down by persistent selling during the Asia trading sessions, which has steadily eroded gains made during U.S. rebound rallies.
Despite interest from buyers stepping in at intra-day lows, bearish momentum continues to dominate as institutional traders offload large positions.
Rising Liquidation Risk and Institutional Selling
According to Hyblock data, a significant liquidation cluster has formed between $111,000 and $107,000, with leveraged long positions vulnerable to absorption if selling pressure continues.
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Meanwhile, perpetual futures markets remain the main driver of Bitcoin’s price action. Heavy selling from large-scale institutional investors (wallets holding between 1,000 to 10 million BTC) has consistently outpaced retail spot buying (wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC), tipping the balance in favor of bears.
ETF inflows, which had been a key source of Bitcoin demand, slowed sharply around the recent FOMC meeting, while long-term holders have increased their selling. This shift has left the market fragile, with a critical support level now forming near current prices. Analysts warn that a failure to hold above this range could open the door to further downside, potentially pushing BTC toward $105,000 to $90,000.
Macro Headwinds Add to Pressure
The broader macro environment is also weighing on Bitcoin.
Federal Reserve Policy: Odds of an October rate cut dropped from 92% to 85.5%, denting risk asset sentiment.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating conflicts, including reports of Russian jet interceptions over Alaska and ongoing violence in Gaza, have driven traders toward safe-haven assets like gold, further limiting Bitcoin inflows.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Crypto analysts emphasize that Bitcoin must reclaim its 21-week EMA at $114,200 to invalidate the current bearish structure. Failure to do so could lead to a deeper pullback. However, order book data suggests that a short squeeze is possible given the overwhelming short-side dominance, which could trigger a sharp upward move if buying pressure suddenly spikes.
Some bullish traders are eyeing a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with BTC currently forming a higher low. Historical patterns also indicate that Bitcoin tends to rebound strongly in October and November, suggesting a seasonal rally could be on the horizon.
Ethereum Enters Bear Market
Ethereum (ETH) also faced significant weakness, falling below $4,000 on Thursday and officially entering a technical bear market after dropping more than 20% from its August peak of $4,850.
The decline intensified once ETH broke below $4,150, dragging the price down to $3,930 and erasing weeks of gains.
Prominent gold advocate Peter Schiff linked ETH’s sharp reversal to Bitcoin, warning that it signals a broader bearish phase for the entire crypto market.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
Despite the short-term sell-off, many analysts and industry leaders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicts BTC could hit $1 million by 2030. Also, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes shares a similar outlook, forecasting Bitcoin could reach $1M to $3.4M by 2028, depending on how global monetary policies evolve.
Hayes’ prediction hinges on the potential for massive money printing triggered by yield curve control policies from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which he believes could cause a “once-in-a-century change” in the global financial system.
Outlook
Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains fragile as institutional selling, slowing ETF inflows, and global tensions weigh on price action. However, historical patterns and bullish long-term forecasts suggest that the current weakness may be temporary.
A decisive move above $114,200 could signal renewed strength and position BTC for a rally into the final months of the year.