The Crypto Market Structure Bill also referred to as the CLARITY Act or related Senate drafts is facing significant hurdles ahead of scheduled committee markups next week. As of early January 2026, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) has pushed for a markup vote on January 15, with the Senate Agriculture Committee also planning a hearing on the same date.
If advanced from both committees, the versions would be reconciled before a potential full Senate floor vote. Republicans issued a “closing offer” to Democrats in early January, incorporating some Democratic requests, but major divisions persist.
Democrats on the Agriculture Committee have not yet endorsed the latest GOP draft, raising the risk of partisan markups. Regulation of DeFi (decentralized finance) protocols, including potential compliance with money transmission laws and sanctions. Treatment of yield-bearing stablecoins. Ethics provisions to prevent conflicts of interest, particularly regarding President Trump’s family crypto ventures. Bipartisan staffing and confirmations for regulators like the SEC and CFTC.
With 2026 midterms approaching, election-year dynamics could slow progress. A potential government shutdown, current funding expires Jan. 30 would halt work entirely. Some analysts estimate only a 50-60% chance of passage in 2026, with risks of delay to 2027.
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The bill aims to clarify regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC (securities) and CFTC (commodities) for digital assets, building on the House-passed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) from 2025 and prior efforts like FIT21. It follows the successful passage of the GENIUS Act (stablecoin framework) last year.
Negotiations have been ongoing for months, with steady but incomplete progress. Chairman Scott has emphasized forcing a vote to “get on the record,” even without full consensus, while critics warn a non-bipartisan advance could doom the bill’s broader prospects needing 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
Industry advocates are lobbying heavily this week, viewing next week’s markups as make-or-break for long-sought regulatory clarity. If it fails in committee, momentum could collapse for the year.
The ongoing delay in the U.S. Senate’s Crypto Market Structure Bill often tied to the House-passed CLARITY Act and Senate drafts carries significant short- and long-term consequences for the cryptocurrency industry, markets, institutions, and global competitiveness.
With committee markups scheduled for January 15, 2026 (Senate Banking) and potentially aligned with the Agriculture Committee, the bill faces persistent bipartisan hurdles over DeFi regulation, yield-bearing stablecoins, ethics provisions like conflicts tied to political figures, and regulator staffing.
Republicans have issued a “closing offer” incorporating some Democratic demands, but full consensus remains elusive, and Chair Tim Scott has signaled a markup “come hell or high water.”
If the Bill Passes in 2026
The bill would divide oversight—primarily shifting spot digital asset markets like Bitcoin, Ether as commodities to the CFTC while keeping SEC authority over securities-like tokens and investment contracts.
This resolves years of “regulation by enforcement,” reducing uncertainty cited by 35-71% of institutional investors as their top barrier per Goldman Sachs and similar reports. Expect surged capital inflows, with U.S. institutional crypto allocations potentially rising significantly.
Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), DeFi, and stablecoin innovation accelerate, mirroring growth in jurisdictions like the EU (MiCA) or Hong Kong. Legitimate projects gain pathways for compliance— disclosures for token issuers, registration for exchanges/brokers.
U.S. solidifies as “crypto capital,” supporting innovation in blockchain infrastructure and on-chain finance. Enhanced rules on custody, fraud, and disclosures, building on the 2025 GENIUS Act.
Spot BTC/ETH ETFs already saw strong 2025 inflows; clarity could unlock 24%+ growth in holdings. Clear CFTC/SEC split enables DeFi/yield products without overlapping enforcement fears.
Prevents capital flight to clearer regimes; aligns with pro-crypto administration goals. Continued regulatory limbo deters mainstream adoption, with enforcement actions persisting. Implementation of full rules could slip to 2029 per TD Cowen, stifling tokenized assets and stablecoin growth critical for TradFi integration.
Institutions hedge or shift to offshore venues like Singapore, EU. U.S. risks losing edge in attracting talent/capital, as seen in prior delays. 2026 midterms reduce urgency; Democrats may stall for leverage. A government shutdown halts progress entirely. Non-bipartisan markup could doom floor prospects needs 60 votes for filibuster.
Reliance on state-level rules or partial measures creates patchwork compliance, higher costs for firms. Prolonged ambiguity risks “exit scenarios” for capital; innovation in DeFi/RWAs slowed. Other nations advance; U.S. firms face higher operational burdens.
TD Cowen predicts 2027 passage more likely, with rules delayed to 2029. Overall, next week’s markups are pivotal: bipartisan advance boosts momentum toward 2026 passage and a transformative year for U.S. crypto. Failure risks multi-year delays, perpetuating uncertainty amid growing global competition.
Industry lobbying intensifies this week, viewing it as “make-or-break.” Markets may react volatilely to updates, with Bitcoin and major assets sensitive to headlines.