The US M2 money supply has hit a new all-time high (ATH) as of the latest data release. According to the Federal Reserve’s H.6 Money Stock Measures report, seasonally adjusted M2 stood at $22,298.1 billion in October 2025.
The U.S. M2 Money Supply is a broad measure of the money in circulation, including all of M1 (physical currency, checking deposits) plus savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits (under $100k), and retail money market mutual funds, representing money easily convertible to cash and used for short-term investments. It’s a key economic indicator the Federal Reserve tracks for inflation and economic health, expanding during stimulus and tightening with quantitative tightening (QT) to manage prices
This marks an increase of $85.6 billion from September’s $22,212.5 billion and surpasses the previous peak of approximately $21.7 trillion set in early 2022 during the post-pandemic liquidity surge. Current value is $22,298.1 billion. Month-over-month change: +0.4% from September 2025.
M2 has grown at an average annual rate of about 6.3% over the past 25 years, reflecting steady monetary expansion. The recent uptrend began accelerating in mid-2025, with consistent monthly gains: June 2025 stood at $21,942.4 billion.
November 2025 data isn’t available yet, the next H.6 release is scheduled for December 23, 2025, but the trajectory suggests continued growth, potentially pushing M2 above $22.3 trillion soon.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026): big discounts for early bird.
Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass opens registrations.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab: From Technical Design to Deployment (next edition begins Jan 24 2026).
M2 is a broad measure of the US money supply, including: All components of M1 (cash, checking deposits, and other highly liquid assets). Savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits under $100,000, and retail money market funds excluding IRA/Keogh balances.
It’s a key indicator of liquidity in the economy, often watched for signals on inflation, interest rates, and asset prices. This milestone has sparked discussions on X with users highlighting its implications for inflation, crypto, and risk assets.
Analysts point out that despite the Fed’s balance sheet shrinking 24% since 2022, M2 growth has fueled an 82% S&P 500 rally, challenging the idea that markets solely depend on direct QE. Crypto enthusiasts view it as bullish for Bitcoin and alternatives, with liquidity “sloshing” into risk assets.
The rapid rise in M2 since mid-2025 (l+4.6% y/y and climbing is one of the strongest monetary inflation signals since the 2020–2022 episode. Historical lags between M2 growth and CPI are 9–24 months longer when velocity is depressed, shorter when velocity is rising.
With M2 growth now firmly positive and accelerating, most monetarist models like the Milton Friedman’s updated quantity theory versions used by Hoisington, Lacy Hunt, and others project CPI re-accelerating toward 4–6% by late 2026 or early 2027 unless velocity collapses again or the Fed slams on the brakes.
Money Velocity (V) Velocity bottomed in 2022–2023 and has been slowly recovering since early 2025. If velocity keeps rising the same M2 growth produces more nominal spending ? higher inflation.
If velocity stalls or falls again possible if banks tighten lending sharply, inflation stays muted longer. The surge in M2 since June 2025 is largely driven by bank credit expansion commercial & industrial loans + real-estate loans are both growing again.
This is “endogenous” money creation — the most inflationary kind, because it directly finances spending. Fiscal Deficits & Treasury Issuance 2025 deficit ~7–8% of GDP; Treasury is issuing massive amounts of new bills.
Banks are buying those bills with new deposits ? direct M2 creation with almost no offset from QT anymore Fed’s balance-sheet runoff is now < $25B/month and scheduled to end in 2026. Feedback Loops Commodity prices (oil, copper, gold) already breaking out in Q4 2025.
Shelter inflation which lags will turn up again in 2026 as new leases reflect 2024–2025 money growth. Markets and the Fed are still underestimating the monetary impulse.Bottom Line – Most Likely Inflation Path2025: 2.5–3.0% already baked in.
The new M2 ATH is a clear warning that the disinflationary episode of 2023–2025 is over. Inflation is very likely to re-accelerate meaningfully in 2026–2027 unless the Fed restarts aggressive QT or a recession crushes credit demand.
Overall, this expansion signals ample liquidity entering the system, which could support equities and commodities but raises concerns about currency debasement and future inflation pressures.