Apple is projected to achieve a record year for iPhone shipments in 2025, driven by the phenomenal success of its latest models and a significant resurgence in its crucial China market, according to a highly bullish report released by research firm IDC on Tuesday.
This surge is not only expected to deliver a company record but also to catapult Apple past its greatest rival, Samsung, to claim the title of the world’s number-one smartphone vendor for the first time in 14 years.
IDC forecasts that Apple will ship a massive 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of just over 6%. This figure comfortably surpasses the previous record of 236 million units sold in 2021, the year the iPhone 13 was released.
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IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal attributed the growth to the new flagship line, stating, “thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series,” Apple is seeing accelerated performance globally.
The iPhone 17 and the China Comeback
The iPhone 17 series, launched in September, was viewed by investors as a critical product line for Apple, especially as the company simultaneously dealt with intense local competition in China and strategic questions regarding its Artificial Intelligence (AI) plans compared to fast-moving Android rivals. The latest device line has proved to be the key differentiator, especially in its largest market.
In a striking turnaround, IDC projects Apple’s shipments will jump by a significant 17% year-on-year in China during the fourth quarter (Q4). This massive demand, driven by the iPhone 17, has led the research firm to revise its outlook for the entire Chinese smartphone market from a previously projected 1% decline for the year to a positive 3% overall growth—a “phenomenal turnaround,” according to Popal. Apple’s success in China is particularly notable as local players like Huawei have been aggressively chipping away at its market share.
IDC anticipates that 2025 will be a record year not only in terms of unit shipments but also in value, forecasting that Apple’s total revenue for the period will exceed $261 billion, representing a 7.2% year-on-year growth. Shipments, a term used by analysts to refer to the number of devices sent by a vendor to its sales channels like stores or e-commerce partners, indicate the expected demand for a product, though they do not directly equate to end-user sales.
The IDC report reinforces a forecast made last week by Counterpoint Research, which indicates the monumental shift in market leadership.
| Research Firm | Apple (AAPL) Projected Shipments 2025 | Samsung Projected Shipments 2025 | Projected Market Share |
| IDC | 247.4 million | N/A | N/A |
| Counterpoint | 243 million | 235 million | Apple (19.4%) vs. Samsung (18.7%) |
Counterpoint Research specifically projects Apple will ship approximately 243 million iPhones in 2025, marginally edging out Samsung, which is expected to ship 235 million smartphones. This would mark the first time since 2011 that Apple leads the global market in annual shipments.
The research firm attributes this shift to a key structural tailwind: the post-COVID replacement cycle hitting its inflection point, as millions of users who bought phones during the pandemic boom are now due for an upgrade, with Apple being the primary beneficiary.
Counterpoint also points to the 358 million second-hand iPhones sold between 2023 and mid-2025 as having created a huge installed base of users likely to transition to a new iPhone soon, effectively locking them into the iOS ecosystem.
While the near-term forecast is extremely bright, the reports highlight future potential headwinds for Apple. Bloomberg reported last month that Apple could delay the release of the base model of its next device, the iPhone 18, until 2027, which would break its regular cycle of releasing all its phones in the fall each year. IDC noted that this strategic shift could result in Apple’s shipments dropping by 4.2% in 2026.
Furthermore, IDC warns that the overall global smartphone market will decline by 0.9% in 2026 (a downward revision from a previously forecast growth) due to a combination of component shortages, particularly in memory chips, which is expected to constrain supply and raise prices.
This component shortage, however, is projected to affect low-to-mid range Android devices most significantly, as those buyers are more price-sensitive. Therefore, even in a shrinking market, Apple’s focus on the premium segment may allow it to maintain its revenue lead and market advantage.