Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $86,000 amid a broader market sell-off. Live prices across major sources show BTC trading in the $85,900–$87,000 range, down roughly 3–4% in the past 24 hours, with some intraday dips as low as $85,500–$85,700.
This extends a multi-day decline, pushing BTC about 30% below its all-time high of ~$126,000 earlier in the year.The drop has triggered significant liquidations over $600–650 million in the last day, mostly long positions, heightened volatility, and “extreme fear” sentiment.
Broader crypto markets are down similarly, with total market cap slipping below $3 trillion, influenced by factors like: Potential Bank of Japan rate hikes unwinding carry trades.
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ETF outflows and macro indications remain with strong uncertainties (e.g., tech stock weakness, tax-loss harvesting). Reduced institutional momentum. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have sharply lowered probabilities in recent weeks.
As of mid-December data, odds hovered around 20–35%, on Polymarket at ~20% in some reports, well below 10% in the most bearish readings—aligning closely with the “<10%” claim amid the ongoing correction.
Earlier in the year, these odds were much higher (50–60%+), but the December pullback has crushed optimism for a quick recovery to $100K+ before January 2026. Analysts note support around $82,800–$84,800, with risks of further downside if broken, but many still see long-term bullish potential into 2026 (e.g., new ATHs post-consolidation).
This is a classic late-cycle correction, not uncommon in Bitcoin’s history. The recent drop of Bitcoin below $86,000 currently trading around $85,900–$87,000 signals a sharp shift in market sentiment, extending a correction from its October all-time high of ~$126,000.
This has wiped out over $1 trillion from the total crypto market cap since peaks, pushing it below $3 trillion.Key immediate effects include: Massive liquidations of over $600–$800 million in leveraged positions mostly longs liquidated in recent days, amplifying downside volatility.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi now price the odds of BTC reclaiming $100,000 by December 31, 2025, at 20–30% down from 50–60%+ earlier. Some readings dip as low as ~20%, aligning with bearish bets on sub-$80,000 outcomes rising to 40%.
Broader crypto srag — altcoins and deFi tokens have fallen harder 6–10%+ in 24 hours, with risks of further contagion if BTC breaks key supports around $82,000–$84,000. This correction appears driven by a confluence of factors, marking a classic late-cycle pullback rather than a full bear market reversal.
Signals of Bank of Japan rate hikes unwinding yen carry trades, reducing global liquidity; correlated sell-offs in tech/AI stocks; and tempered Fed rate-cut expectations odds for aggressive easing now lower.
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows like those $300–$400 million in recent sessions from funds like BlackRock and Fidelity; slowed corporate treasury buying (e.g., MicroStrategy still accumulating but at a reduced pace overall).
BTC is range-bound with weakened momentum below key EMAs. A break below $80,000 could test $72,000–$74,000 lows, while holding $85,000 might allow stabilization. Renewed ETF inflows, clearer regulatory progress or macro easing could spark a rebound. Many analysts view this as healthy profit-taking/tax-loss harvesting ahead of a 2026 push.
Despite the pain, structural bullishness remains intact: Bitcoin is still up significantly YTD from early 2025 levels. Institutional adoption— ETFs holding ~1.5 million BTC, corporate treasuries ~1 million provides a floor.
Forecasts for 2026+ often target new highs ($130,000–$200,000+), driven by halving cycle dynamics, supply constraints, and growing recognition as a treasury asset. Risks include prolonged macro tightness potentially delaying recovery, or extreme scenarios.
This crash reflects over-leveraged euphoria meeting real-world liquidity drains—painful short-term, but historically common in bull cycles. Long-term holders often see these as accumulation opportunities, though near-term volatility likely persists until clearer catalysts emerge.