David Roberts, a former Director of the British Council in Nigeria, possibly wants to make Nigeria feel good, telling us to reject the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report which projects that Nigeria will lose its #1 ranking to the 4th position:
“In 2014 when Nigeria became the largest economy in Africa, it was not because of the calculations of the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank. It was because Nigeria’s economy had been rebased and recalculated by the National Bureau of Statistics. Were it not for the NBS, the world would have continued to perceive Nigeria as Africa’s third-largest economy
“That is certainly not true. If Nigeria became the biggest economy on the strength of the NBS data, why would Nigeria allow itself to be downgraded and labelled the fourth largest economy in Africa this year by the IMF? Does the IMF know Nigeria better than the NBS?” – David Roberts.
Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 14 (June 3 – Sept 2, 2024) begins registrations; get massive discounts with early registration here.
Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass opens registrations here.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and invest in Africa’s finest startups here.
(As you know already, Nigeria is projected to fall to a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $253 billion, behind South Africa $373 billion, Egypt $348 billion and Algeria $267 billion.)
Good People, I do not know what data Mr. Roberts is contesting or rejecting. I hope Nigeria ignores him. Ignoring data you do not like does not make it go away. The IMF report is clear and simple: Nigeria you were the largest economy at N415/$ but when you deteriorated your currency to N1,000/$, we adjusted accordingly, and as a result of that, you are now #4.
Sure, I am not always a fan of the IMF, on its postulation on Africa. I was among those who rejected its rosy model on how Naira would stabilize around N650/$ post-Naira floating. But on this one, even though it was put on the IMF logo, the recalibration of Nigeria’s GDP is clear even to a secondary school kid, because our exchange rate has changed.
David Roberts, a former Director of the British Council in Nigeria, possibly wants to make Nigeria feel good, telling us to reject the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report which projects that Nigeria will lose its #1 ranking to the 4th position:
“In 2014 when Nigeria became… pic.twitter.com/wSRL0qkBSm
— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) April 23, 2024
---
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA (Jun 3 - Sep 2, 2024), and join Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe and our global faculty; click here.
How will anyone contest the data without looking stupid? This thing is very straightforward, it does not require IMF or any other entity to bring it to our attention; just carry your calculator and run the numbers. If naira exchanges for 500 to a dollar today, Nigeria will become the largest economy in Africa, because that would catapult the GDP to over $500 billion. We can even achieve a trillion dollar economy by getting naira to exchange for 200 to a dollar, and within 24 months you have a trillion dollar economy.
Which route will be easier: ramping up production or making the naira stronger and stable, or both? Any route we go still requires clear strategy and actions, so there’s no point challenging or contesting what is unambiguous. Just go to work and reverse the fall.
Again, Nigeria is not a developed economy, so any growth below 7% is no growth; you have to at least match your population growth rate, else you keep scaling poverty.