Nigeria’s economy accelerated sharply in the second quarter of 2026, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 4.43% year-on-year, its strongest quarterly expansion in five years, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The performance marks a significant improvement from the 3.89% growth recorded in the first quarter and the 3.87% expansion for the full year of 2025. It is also the fastest quarterly growth since the second quarter of 2021, when the economy expanded by 5.01% as activity rebounded from the COVID-19-induced recession.
The Q2 figures point to a strengthening recovery in which growth was supported by a wider mix of sectors rather than a single source of momentum. Agriculture, telecommunications, crude oil production and several service industries all recorded relatively strong performances, helping to offset continued weakness in electricity and gas as well as a slowdown in transportation.
Register for the next Tekedia Mini-MBA.
Register for Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
A closer look at the numbers suggests that the composition of growth may be as important as the headline rate.
Agriculture and telecommunications were the two largest contributors, together accounting for about 2.1 percentage points of the 4.43% expansion. Agriculture contributed approximately 1.15 percentage points, while telecommunications accounted for about 0.95 percentage points.
The agricultural performance was particularly notable because of a sharp recovery in livestock production.
Livestock growth accelerated to 6.92% in the second quarter, compared with 2.20% in Q1 and just 0.08% for the whole of 2025. The turnaround made livestock one of the clearest sources of additional momentum between the first and second quarters and substantially strengthened agriculture’s contribution to GDP.
The improvement is significant for an economy in which agriculture remains a major source of employment and household income. However, stronger agricultural output does not automatically translate into a proportional improvement in living standards, particularly where food prices, logistics costs and farm-to-market constraints remain elevated.
Telecommunications also continued to provide a major structural support to growth, although its pace moderated.
The ICT sector expanded by 9.62% in Q2, down from 10.98% in Q1. Even with the slowdown, the sector’s large contribution to economic activity meant it remained one of the biggest contributors to overall GDP growth.
The continued strength of telecommunications highlights the growing importance of Nigeria’s digital economy, as mobile connectivity, data consumption, digital payments and technology-enabled services increasingly feed into economic activity.
Oil production provides another important part of the Q2 story.
Crude petroleum growth accelerated to 7.31%, compared with 2.57% in Q1, adding roughly 0.25 percentage point to overall GDP growth. The improvement represents a meaningful turnaround for an economy that has struggled for years with production disruptions, oil theft, underinvestment and operational constraints in the petroleum industry.
The stronger oil performance also matters for public finances and foreign-exchange liquidity because higher production can improve government revenues and export earnings, provided the gains are sustained and are not eroded by weaker oil prices or rising production costs.
Beyond agriculture and oil, several service industries gained momentum.
Accommodation and food services grew by 6.96%, up from 4.36% in Q1, while insurance accelerated to 16.13% from 9.94%. Real estate also strengthened, expanding by 3.76% compared with 2.29% in the preceding quarter.
The simultaneous improvement across hospitality, insurance, real estate and other service activities suggests that domestic economic activity was becoming more broad-based. It also indicates that the recovery was extending beyond the traditional oil-led component of the economy.
However, the Q2 expansion was far from uniform.
Transportation growth slowed to 5.70%, from 7.41% in Q1 and well below the 16.92% recorded for full-year 2025. The moderation could constrain the transmission of growth across the wider economy because transportation costs have a direct bearing on agriculture, manufacturing, trade and consumer prices.
Electricity and gas remained an even more significant weakness. The sector contracted by 10.63% in Q2, although the decline was less severe than the 15.30% contraction recorded in Q1.
The continued contraction in power generation and gas-related activity remains a structural concern. Persistent electricity shortages raise production costs for businesses, limit manufacturing capacity and encourage households and companies to rely on more expensive alternatives such as diesel- and petrol-powered generators.
That weakness has gained attention because sustained GDP growth ultimately requires productivity gains, not just higher output in individual sectors.
The defining feature of the second-quarter data, therefore, is the breadth of the recovery.
Livestock production rebounded strongly, crude oil growth accelerated, and several service industries recorded faster expansion. Telecommunications maintained a high growth rate, while agriculture benefited from improved livestock output. These gains helped compensate for weaker transportation, slower ICT growth and continued contraction in electricity and gas.
This makes the Q2 result more encouraging than a headline growth figure alone might suggest. A recovery spread across primary production, hydrocarbons and services is generally more resilient than one driven by a single sector.
Still, Nigeria faces a substantial gap between stronger aggregate output and the economic experience of households and businesses.
GDP growth of 4.43% is occurring against a backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures, high operating costs, infrastructure deficiencies and constrained purchasing power. Economists have noted that the key test for the recovery will be whether higher output can translate into higher real incomes, increased employment and improved productivity.
The latest result also places Nigeria closer to the growth trajectory projected by several international institutions.
The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s 2026 growth to 4.4%, from 3.7% previously projected in June 2025, and maintained a 4.4% forecast for 2027. S&P Global Ratings has also upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign- and local-currency credit ratings to ‘B’ from ‘B-’.
The International Monetary Fund, however, has taken a more cautious position, cutting its 2026 growth forecast by 0.3 percentage point to 4.1% from 4.4%, citing mounting global and domestic pressures.
The divergence in forecasts underscores the uncertainty surrounding Nigeria’s recovery. While the Q2 data provide evidence of stronger economic momentum, analysts say sustaining growth at or above 4% will depend on whether the country can improve oil production, strengthen agricultural productivity, address electricity constraints and lower the cost of moving goods and operating businesses.
Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to earlier NBS data.
The latest 4.43% expansion represents a clear acceleration from that trajectory and offers stronger evidence that the economy is gaining momentum. The more important question now is whether the Q2 performance marks the beginning of a durable productivity-led expansion or simply another period of cyclical improvement.